Merry Christmas to all of those out there who are celebrating today! Most of us will be waking up to presents under the tree and stockings stuffed with peanut butter cups unless you are like me and you’re not of that age anymore. Chances are if you’re betting on NFL games, you probably are like me, where your biggest present of all will be winning lots of money on the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints game today. Plenty to think about and plenty to wager on in this game, which will feature two teams that are going in opposite directions on Christmas day. The Saints will be eyeing the number 1 seed in the NFC, while the Vikings will be scrapping at the heels of a playoff berth, desperate for a win. The Saints will be looking for revenge in this spot against a Minnesota team that knocked them out of the playoffs just a year ago. Losing three straight games would put New Orleans into a sort of “free-fall” mode, which they simply cannot afford to happen this late in the season. If Minnesota can play as it has against the Saints in recent games over the past three years or so, then they have a real shot in this game. But can you really trust a Vikings squad that pretty much had its season end last week against the Chicago Bears? You can bet on this game and plenty more this weekend with DraftKings, who are offering a great deal right now for new users with a $1,000 deposit bonus.

Minnesota Vikings (6-8) at New Orleans Saints (10-4)

Spread: NO -6.5, MIN +6.5

This number has actually dropped a bit from yesterday when the Vikings were getting +7.5. At that number, I would definitely take the Vikings over a TD. When teams like Minnesota have their season essentially get ended this late in the NFL season, I generally want no part in backing them unless they are going against a division rival. If the Vikings are actually interested in playing and are engaged in the game, I really like their chances of keeping it within a TD. If they come out flat and careless, it would be hard to even see them getting a backdoor cover. I believe they will come out still thinking that they mathematically have something to play for, which means they will probably keep the number in play for most of the game. I have no interest in taking the Saints at this large of a number after they have struggled a bunch over the last two weeks. The Vikings have consistently given Drew Brees and the Saints trouble over the last three years, where they are 3-1 straight up against them. The case for the Saints is backed by the fact that Minnesota may pack it in. Teams have also gotten healthy this year against the Vikings defense on several occasions, which could make this -6.5 look like a bargain if that’s the type of effort we get from Minnesota.

Official Play: MIN +7.5 or pass

Total: 51.5

The Vikings have gone 4-5 straight up in games that have cashed the over ticket, which means that their fans and Kirk Cousins have seen themselves come up a couple of plays short in a ton of high-scoring games this season. I think this plays as a great under play here. The Saints defense is one of the best units in the league, and one of the best against the run, which is Minnesota’s best bet to win the game. Dalvin Cook will need to have a great game against a Saints defense that has only allowed 8 rushing TDs all season. On the other side, Drew Brees didn’t quite look like himself last week against the Kansas City Chiefs. He didn’t complete a single pass in the 1st quarter, which is very uncharacteristic of a guy that has one of the highest completion percentages in NFL history. Those 11 broken ribs I think are no joke, and I’m not exactly sure Brees is actually at 80% right now. Both teams will rely on their running games quite a bit, the Viks because that’s what they do, and New Orleans to keep the pressure off of an injured Brees. When both teams run the ball a lot or have short passes underneath, it plays towards an under.

Official Play: UNDER 51.5

Player Props:

Dalvin Cook First TD – The Vikings love to run the ball, and you can bet that Cook will be getting his looks at the goal line. He has scored the first TD in four of the last five games the Vikings are underdogs.

Dalvin Cook O82.5 Rush Yds – Cook will be getting high volume in the game, even if the Saints defense is good against the run. He’s recorded 96+ rush yds in seven of his last eight games.

Adam Thielen Anytime TD – If the Vikings do go to the air in the red zone, Thielen gets the looks from Cousins. He has scored a TD in four of his last five games.

Adam Thielen O58.5 Rec Yds – Thielen is the Vikings’ primary receiver, but not necessarily their deep threat. He gets a high volume of targets from Cousins and has also been dominant against New Orleans in his career. He’s had 74+ rec yds in his last four games against the Saints.

Kirk Cousins O246.5 Pass Yds – This seems like an awfully low number for a team that could potentially get down in the game and has to pass. Cousins has had at least 271 passing yards in five of his last six games.

Alvin Kamara Anytime TD – This is juiced to the moon because it’s highly likely Kamara makes it into the endzone. Brees loves targeting him in the passing game, and I think they run it a bunch anyway.

Alvin Kamara O45.5 Rec Yds – Brees without Michael Thomas? Hammer Kamara over receiving yards. That simple.

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