One final effort is all that remains. The last game of the 2020 NFL season is tomorrow, and on paper, it’s going to be legendary. Super Bowl LV pits arguably the greatest QB to ever play the sport, Tom Brady, and his Buccaneers up against the defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs and their young superstar QB, Patrick Mahomes ll. The game should be one for the ages. Buckle up.

The betting line for this game has been fluctuating all week long from Chiefs -3 to -3.5. As soon as a +3.5 appears for the Bucs, it immediately gets bet back down to +3, so kudos to you if you were able to grab the hook. Of course, betting the side isn’t always the sharpest move, especially with a line like this which is.. well.. sharp. There is a wide variety of props to bet on from the Gatorade to Cameron Brate receiving yards.

There is so much to get into and to bet on, but these were the bets that really stood out to us. For the last time this season, here are our best bets for Super Bowl LV in Tampa Bay, Florida.

Best Bets For Super Bowl LV

Spread/Money Line: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5/Buccaneers ML +144

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes may be the next Tom Brady, but first, he has to get through Tom Brady. While Brady will certainly make an impact on this game, the Bucs defensive line will be the unit that should star in this matchup. Kansas City will be without starting offensive tackle Eric Fisher for the big game, which is a critical loss for them against this Todd Bowles coached Bucs D. They attack the QB with ruthless efficiency, dropping Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers five times two weeks ago in the NFC Championship Game. Mahomes also has a toe injury that no-one seems to be concerned about, but it may limit his mobility in the pocket and his ability to scramble.

Tampa Bay’s defense has been one of the top units all year in limiting explosive plays in both passing and rushing. They ranked top-10 in both, and they are the best team in the league in adjusted sack rate. They also are number one when it comes to stopping the run altogether, ranking first in defensive rush DVOA. Kansas City is ranked 31st in that very same metric.

Offensively, they of course have Tom Brady as I mentioned before, but they have a whole lot more than just him. The Chiefs are absolutely horrendous defending in the red-zone, ranking dead last in the NFL. The Bucs have all sorts of weapons that should be able to create mismatches near the goal-line, which should result in more Tampa TDs than FGs. If they have any hope of keeping up with Mahomes, this is their only option. They must score TDs against this poor KC red-zone defense.

The game is also being played at Raymond James Stadium, home of the Buccaneers, so this will be the first time we’ve seen a team have home-field advantage in the Super Bowl. While the crowds may not be as large due to the COVID-19 pandemic that is causing all sorts of problems on humanity’s way of life, the Bucs will not have to deal with travel problems. That’s at least something to consider.

By picking Tampa +3.5 or just to win outright, you are getting tremendous value. Wait until as close to kickoff as you can, as oddsmakers seem to note that most of the bets are coming in on Kansas City. When you feel like you are getting the best value possible, pick Tampa to keep it close or pull off the upset.

Total: OVER 55.5

While I like the Buccaneers in the game, I’m also no fool. Pat Mahomes will get his, and shutting down Kansas City is simply not possible. If you see the total get back to this level over some weather concerns, this is certainly a play.

I expect this to be a shootout between two of the highest-powered offenses in the league. I mentioned before how awful KC’s defense was in the red-zone, and how they are atrocious stopping the run as well. Tampa Bay’s defense is very good, but they will not be able to fully shut down the Chiefs dynamic offense. Both teams can easily score 4 TDs apiece, which would cash this over.

Also of note, both Tampa and KC are top-10 in interceptions this season, which could change the game in a second should there be a defensive score. Anytime there is a defensive score, the over is very likely to hit. The Bucs are 11-8 on the over this season while KC is 9-9. These teams will give it everything they have. Here come the fireworks.

Props

This is where the fun begins. All of our best bets for props for Super Bowl LV.

Second Half Higher Score – This one is a no-brainer. The second half of a football game is almost always higher scoring than the first half, and Brady for some reason gets off to slow starts in the big game. At only -105, this is almost unbelievable.

Shaquill Barrett To Record A Sack – Barrett has been on a tear recently for Tampa’s defense. Now without starting tackle Eric Fisher, he will feast on either a back-up player or someone playing out of position. Add in Mahomes toe injury, and I love this prop bet.

Cameron Brate Over 2.5 Receptions – Brate has been much more utilized in the Tampa Bay offense lately, while Gronk seemingly has taken a backseat near the goal line. He’s been a great red-zone target, and no one on KC’s defense will be able to stop him.

Sammy Watkins Under 3.5 Receptions – This is not a knock on Watkins as much as the fact he hasnt played in forever. The Chiefs seem to have a good thing going with their current receiving corps. While Watkins could go over his yardage on a big play, I dont see him getting 4 catches in the game.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 2.5 Receptions – CEH was out there for half of the snaps for the AFC Championship Game, and notably, was out on the field for almost every passing play that a RB was involved. I expect him to get even more work as he has gotten healthier.

Darrell Williams Under 28.5 Rushing Yards – Which leads to this prop. The Bucs have the best run defense in the NFL, and I see KC passing a ton in this game. Love the CEH receptions, but I don’t see the running game getting much.

Ronald Jones lll Over 35.5 Rushing Yards – Leonard Fournette and Jones split carries against the Packers in the NFC Championship Game. Jones should get an increased load as he gets more healthy, and Kansas City’s defense is very vulnerable against the run.

Patrick Mahomes Over 40 Pass Attempts – Since I see the Bucs getting up in this game, that leads to Mahomes having to pass a lot. Plus, the Bucs defense is great against the run, so Mahomes is going to have to sling it.

Mike Evans Over 62.5 Receiving Yards – I think Evans has the potential to dominate this game. Everyone is low on him right now, which makes this a perfect time to buy in. I just don’t see how KC covers this man.

Rob Gronkowski Over 15.5 Longest Reception and 9.5 First Reception – This is how I am choosing to play Gronk in the big game. Whenever we see him make plays, they are almost always big chunk plays down the seam or to the sideline. He doesnt catch short passes.

Tyreek Hill Over 27.5 Longest Reception – This should come as no surprise for folks. He is simply faster than anyone on the Tampa Bay defense and proved that last time out. Despite their best efforts, Hill breaks at least one long one.

Antonio Brown Under 18.5 Longest Reception – Brown hasn’t really made much of an impact for Tampa this season, but when he does appear, it’s usually short crossing routes and red-zone targets. I don’t see Brown breaking a big one.

Tampa Bay To Record A Successful Fourth Down Conversion YES – Tampa Bay against really good teams this year has been very aggressive, so give me risk it for the biscuit Bruce Arians.