The 2020 NFL season may be over, but that doesn’t mean we can’t still discuss pro football odds. As the saying goes, the sportsbooks never sleep, and DraftKings Sportsbook already has their odds up to win the 2021 NFL MVP award.
The Usual Suspects
Just about any casual NFL fan will know who the usual suspects are at the top, including Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who is the opening favorite once again at +500 to win the award. Unless his toe injury he sustained late this past season causes him to miss some early action next year, don’t expect this to change anytime soon.
The defending NFL MVP, QB Aaron Rodgers, comes in second at +800 to repeat. There have been some rumors that Green Bay Packers signal-caller is ready to move on from the organization, but it really doesn’t matter where the guy plays. He will almost always be in the mix to win it at the end of the season.
The Dark Horse Candidates
Those two huge favorites are followed up by some of this past year’s dark horse candidates. Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen comes in at number three with +1300 odds, tied with early 2020 MVP frontrunner QB Russell Wilson from the Seattle Seahawks.
New Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford rounds out the top five at +1500. Do you see the trend that is going on here?
The first twelve players listed as the favorites to win 2021 NFL MVP are all QBs. This is not to be surprising, as this is now the eighth straight year that a QB has won the award and 13th in the last 14 seasons. The only player in the last 14 years to win the award that wasn’t a QB was former Vikings running back Adrian Peterson, who won the award in 2012 after his remarkable 2,000-yard performance coming off a torn ACL.
The Longshots
Two of the best RBs in the league make an appearance on the list to win 2021 NFL MVP. Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry and Carolina Panthers RB Christian McCaffery have the best odds of any non-QB on the list at +3300.
The first wide receiver to be listed is Arizona Cardinals superstar wideout DeAndre Hopkins at a whopping +10000. Basically, it’s almost impossible. Look what rookie WR Justin Jefferson did this year for the Minnesota Vikings and tell me he didn’t win rookie of the year. Well, he didn’t. Incredible.
As for defensive players, you would just be throwing your money away. In fact, it’s so unlikely to happen that the most dominant defender in the NFL for the last half-decade and reigning defensive player of the year Aaron Donald isn’t even listed. Not a single defender is.
Here is DraftKings list of players that have +10000 odds or shorter to win the 2021 NFL MVP:
Early Value Candidates
There are a few names that seem intriguing listed here at pretty good early value to throw some small amounts at.
Deshaun Watson
After Houston’s team president resigned yesterday, it is still up in the air as to if Deshaun Watson will be playing somewhere else next season. One of the biggest favorites to land him should he leave the Texans is the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins are built to win now with a great defense and a very good head coach that has built the team back from ashes. Miami went 10-6 playing a two QB system with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tua Tagovailoa last year, and adding Watson would immediately upgrade the team.
If the Dolphins do in fact get Watson, they would be able to contend with the defending division champion Bills. With the New York Jets and New England Patriots in rebuild mode, these two teams would battle it out at the top. If Watson goes to Miami or San Francisco, his odds will instantly increase playing for a more talented team.
Kyler Murray
Kyler Murray is an electrifying player that can both run and pass the football with ability. The one drawback with Murray is his injury history and his smaller body. Every time he gets hit, heart attacks begin for both Cardinals fans and sports bettors alike. This offseason, the Cardinals will probably make it a priority to protect their young franchise QB. So you can expect them to improve along the offensive line. The Cards have a solid defense, and if not for key injuries this season, they probably would have made the playoffs over the lousy Chicago Bears.
The only other drawback is his head coach. Kliff Kingsbury has been involved in some questionable coaching decisions in his tenure as Cardinals head coach, so as long as he doesnt put his QB in bad situations, Murray is an electrifying athlete that reminds many of former MVP Lamar Jackson. He could have that type of season.
Justin Herbert
Even though he publicly vouched for him, Chargers QB Justin Herbert must be doing cartwheels that former head coach Anthony Lynn was canned after an absolutely miserable coaching season. Now that he is gone and new head coach Brandon Staley is in charge, it won’t take much for this team to improve. They are already one of the most talented teams in football with some really good players like Derwin James returning from injury. As long as Staley is at least semi-competent as a head coach, he will be a massive upgrade over Lynn.
The Chargers are a team to look at for a futures bet next season as well. The Chiefs are clearly not immortal, and the Chargers played them close in the first matchup last season and beat them in the second, albeit without Mahomes. The Chiefs will once again be overvalued, which gives you the opportunity to play a very talented team and player at really good early value.
Good luck in Detroit, Anthony.
