The Las Vegas Raiders will have to give it their all this Thursday night against the Los Angeles Chargers if they want to stay alive in the AFC Playoff hunt. The last four outings for the Raiders’ have gone, for lack of a better word, very poorly, with just a single win over the winless Jets. A 44-27 loss to the Indianapolis Colts this past weekend has made their eligibility for the playoffs a difficult path to navigate. Meanwhile, the Chargers won their fourth game of the season over the struggling Atlanta Falcons with a 20-17 victory last Sunday. They will be looking for a modicum of revenge against the Raiders after their Week 9 31-26 loss, a game in which the Chargers actually outplayed the Raiders by having 120 more yards and held the ball for almost 10 more minutes. One of the biggest issues the Chargers have faced this season is being effective when they have the football; QB Justin Herbert seems to be hitting that infamous “rookie wall” that first-year QBs seem to hit later in their seasons. After having an extremely successful start to his season compiling a 22:6 TD-INT ratio in his first nine contests, Herbert has thrown at a 3:4 rate over his last three. DraftKings wants you to take advantage of the early value in this matchup by offering new users a $1,000 deposit bonus to make it rain.

Thursday Night Football

Los Angeles Chargers (4-9) at Las Vegas Raiders (7-6)

Spread: LV -3.5, +3.5

The early line here gives pretty good value. Whenever you get over a field goal in a divisional matchup that is as closely contested as these two teams, you take it. I will have a Chargers +3.5 ticket here, and I feel like we might see a +4, but that is a pretty dead number. What do we also know about the head coaches of these two franchises? For Los Angeles, Anthony Lynn is as good as gone. He is one of the worst head coaches in recent memory, maybe one of the worst of all time. He makes horrible, extremely ridiculous fundamental mistakes and miscues throughout football games that even someone at the high school level should not make. With all that being said, Lynn plays almost 100% of his games within a score. With the exception of that 45-0 throttling they got against Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots, they rarely ever get blown out under Lynn and they rarely blow out anyone. Having the Chargers or their opposition in a teaser each week at +7.5 or +8.5 is an absolute must. On the other side, we have Jon Gruden, whose ultra-conservative approach to games makes him a lock to be in closer games most weeks. Love the Chargers here catching over a FG.

Total: 53

This is a large number, but it’s also warranted here. I actually even like the over in this one and think it climbs even higher. This game will be played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, where points get scored in very, very large amounts. The average scoring total in that stadium during its first and only year is currently at 60.3 points, one of the largest totals in the NFL. Vegas’ defense is virtually nonexistent, giving up points in bunches to the tune of 30.1 a game and ranking in the very bottom portion of the league in almost every defensive metric. The Chargers have the 4th best passing attack, which means they will be ripping the Raiders defense all night in perfect scoring conditions. Coincidentally, that will also be happening to a Chargers defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in giving up, well, everything.

Moneyline: LV -195, LAC +165

This is tough. I think this game comes down to the wire, similar to the last game the Chargers played against the Falcons. Do you know where the value lies though? Los Angeles. The Chargers are for sure a live dog in this game with a high total and two terrible defenses. You get plus money by taking LA to win the game, so why not put a little bit down on a game that could go either way? I think you may get more value on game day because it’s likely the Raiders will take money at home.

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