Between the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles game and the presidential debate, Thursday gave us a night off from watching competency on television. I will admit, I did see an improvement in one, and it didn’t involve a football. The Giants and Eagles did everything they could throughout the game to lose but in the end, the Eagles prevailed to move to 2-4-1 and the lead in the NFC East. Sad. But with horrible football on Thursday night, comes the promise of better games ahead on Sunday.
Each week, we take a look at the NFL card and throw the spotlight on some teams that are prime candidates to pull off the upset or at least cover the spread. These are games that we would not lay the points with the favorites, and instead take the underdog to cover or simply pass the game altogether. Last week, we went 4-3 on our underdog bets, so we will look to improve on that this week by giving you some winners here today. Check out our other betting insights this week with our Early Lines and Teasers/Pleasers sections.
All numbers are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook.
Carolina Panthers (3-3) at New Orleans Saints (3-2)
Current Line: NO -7.5, CAR +7.5
Total: 51
Teddy Bridgewater is coming off his worst start of the year for his new team, faltering against the mighty Chicago Bears defense last Sunday. Bridgewater was under duress the entire game, completing only 55% of his pass attempts for a QB rating of 50 and a QBR score of 34. That’s a big reason why the line is this high for the game. We’re expecting a bounce-back performance from him this weekend.
The Saints are coming off a bye, and you always have to worry about teams that have an excellent coach (Sean Payton) off of them to have a great performance. But with recent news of Wide Receiver Emmanual Sanders being out due to a COVID-19 diagnosis, and Michael Thomas out as well, where will the Saints pass the ball? Matt Rhule has shown that his players want to fight for him each week, and with the line more than a TD, there is no way we are laying the points with New Orleans and that woeful defense in the big easy.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2) at Las Vegas Raiders (3-2)
Current Line: TB -4.5, LV +4.5
Total: 52.5
The Raiders are getting 4.5 points in this one against the Bucs. Las Vegas is coming off a bye, and the last time we saw them, they took down the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. The short passing game of the Raiders has been terrific so far this season for Jon Gruden’s Raiders, as they rank #5 in passing offense and #6 in total offense according to Football Outsiders. After blowing out the Green Bay Packers last week, the Bucs could make the case that they are the most balanced football team in the NFL. Their defense is ranked #1 in yards per game, and their offense is #8 in points per game. This is a really nice spot for the Raiders, at home, getting +4.5 as the home dog. We would not lay that with the Bucs on the road in Vegas.
Green Bay Packers (4-1) at Houston Texans (1-5)
Current Line: GB -3.5, HOU +3.5
Total: 57
The total for this game is astronomical. Any time you see a total in the NFL progress towards 60 points, it’s truly a special time for offense. The Texans have been playing solid football since firing their Head Coach/General Manager Bill O’Brien. They won their first game of the season against the horrid Jaguars in week 5 and played the undefeated Tennessee Titans to OT last week. Green Bay could do next to nothing against the Bucs last week, and Aaron Rodgers couldn’t stay upright. Left Tackle David Bakhtiari looks like he will be out again for this game, and that could spell trouble for the Packers offense again. At +3.5, you get through the key number of 3, and we wouldn’t lay more than that with Green Bay right now.
Buffalo Bills (4-2) at New York Jets (0-6)
Current Line: BUF -13, NYJ +13
Total: 46.5
Every time we pick the Jets, we have to be clear: The Jets will lose this football game. I will never recommend taking them on the moneyline against any opponent this season. However, you are getting almost two TDs here. Usually, we would still tell you to lay the points against New York. Here, we look at a Buffalo team that has lost two straight games. Josh Allen has looked very pedestrian after starting out as an early MVP candidate. The Bills are on the road, on a short week, against a division rival. It’s hard to lock in a bet with the Jets, we understand. We wouldn’t blame you if you didn’t. But it’s an idea to put out there. By the way, the look-ahead lines are out for week 8. The Jets are 21 point underdogs against Kansas City, one of the largest point spreads in NFL history.
Kansas City Chiefs (5-1) at Denver Broncos (2-3)
Current Line: KC -9.5, DEN +9.5
Total: 45.5
Speaking of Kansas City, they are coming off a win against those Bills last week 26-17. They haven’t looked as dominant as they have in recent times, playing close games and even losing to Vegas in week 5. The offensive line is questionable, and before last week, so was their rushing attack. The defense has also been disappointing again as a whole, and they are coming off a short week. Denver just beat Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots last week, albeit with a bunch of field goals. Their defense played great against Cam Newton and co., and now they are at home getting almost 10 points in a division game. Don’t overthink this one, you are getting great value with Denver.
Chicago Bears (5-1) at Los Angeles Rams (4-2)
Current Line: LAR -6, CHI +6
Total: 44.5
The Bears have a fantastic defense yet again, in some ways reminding us of the 2018 squad, sans the turnovers. Jared Goff against a top-10 defense is always a bad bet to make, even though this is a good spot for LA off a divisional loss on national TV and playing at home. Their four wins have come against the NFC East, also known as the worst division in football. The Bears offense should only get better because they really can’t get much worse than they have been. Their defense is good enough that they will almost always be playing in close games, and that reason alone is enough for me not to lay 6 points with the inconsistency of the Rams.
