The NFL season hasn’t even been over for a month, and yet the 2021 NFL Draft is quickly approaching as most sportsbooks have opened up plenty of props for the event. Trevor Lawrence is the massive favorite to go No. 1 overall – -5000 odds currently at DraftKings Sportsbook to be selected first – so it’s not worth placing money on. However, there are many other props to take a look at for the draft that could potentially earn you some cash.
Information
Where: Cleveland, Ohio
When: Thursday, April 29 – Sunday, May 1
Watch: ESPN/ABC
First Running Back Drafted
The running back position has been somewhat regulated to an afterthought in today’s NFL, as most offenses are heavily focused on the QB and passing game. This makes the position very difficult to predict in determining where players will go. Most teams select RBs on fit nowadays over talent.
For example, D’Andre Swift and Jonathan Taylor were both considered to be better talents at the RB position than Clyde Edwards-Helaire in last year’s draft. That did not stop Kansas City from drafting him over those two because they felt CEH fit their system better, as he was the best pass-catching back of the three prospects.
The current betting favorite is Clemson RB Travis Etienne at -200 to be the first RB taken. Alabama RB Najee Harris is right behind him, but getting plus-money at +125. Harris has back-to-back 200 carry, 1,200-yard seasons, so it would be easy to see him being taken above Etienne as a sort of Derrick Henry-like wrecking ball back.
This position is too much of a question mark, so staying away, for now, might be the smart money play.
First Wide Receiver Drafted
The wideout class in 2021 is absolutely loaded and is one of the best we have seen in quite some time. So much so that the Heisman Trophy winner, Devonta Smith out of Alabama, isn’t even the favorite to be the first one taken. In fact, he’s plus-money just like his RB counterpart for the Crimson Tide at +125.
Jamarr Chase is currently the betting favorite at -150 to be the first receiver drafted at DraftKings Sportsbook. Chase was one of Joe Burrow’s favorite targets at LSU during their historic tear through college football in 2019 but opted out of the COVID affected season in 2020. He had quite the insane stat line in 2019, compiling 84 catches for 1,780 yards and 20 TDs. Yes, TWENTY.
Smith’s teammate at Alabama Jaylen Waddle is behind the first two star pass catchers at +700. He fractured his ankle halfway through the 2020 season but was able to return for the College Football National Championship. Before the injury, Waddle was projected as a top-10 pick.
Chances are that all three of these guys will be chosen in the first 15 picks of the 2021 draft, but at first glance, there doesn’t seem to be too much value here. Smith at +125 is enticing.
The Miami Dolphins are currently selecting 3rd, and they have former Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa under center. He and Smith played a season and a half together with the Crimson Tide, so it would make complete sense for the Dolphins to take the Heisman winner who has chemistry with their young QB. They are in real need of talent to surround Tua with. Chase may be the favorite, but the value is taking Smith at +125.
Drafted No. 2 Overall
Everyone knows that Trevor Lawrence is going No. 1 overall to the Jacksonville Jaguars, so there is no point in even debating that. This draft starts with the second overall selection, which is currently owned by the New York Jets.
The Jets have plenty of options at their disposal here, including a possible trade for Houston Texans star QB Deshaun Watson. The Jets would certainly send this pick to Houston in that scenario. In the event that a trade for Watson does not occur, they will have to figure out what they want to do with current starting QB Sam Darnold.
Darnold has been a hot topic of trade discussions over the last several weeks, with teams eyeing on acquiring the former top-3 pick to see if they can turn his career around. If New York decides to ship him off, they have some serious decisions to make on how to replace him.
The current favorite is BYU QB Zach Wilson at a pretty heavy -167 to go second overall at DraftKings Sportsbook. Obviously, the sportsbooks feel that no matter who is selecting second, they will almost certainly be picking a QB. Ohio State QB Justin Fields is behind Wilson at +260. Both of these QBs are extremely talented and dynamic, so either one of them could be selected here.
If the Jets believe in him and decide to keep the pick to build around Darnold, they will be looking to give him as much protection as possible. Oregon OL Penei Sewell is currently a massive favorite to be the first OL taken in the draft, but +800 to go second overall. There is value to be had here, especially with Texans being so adamant about not trading Watson.
Most think that the Jets will go a different direction at QB, but if a Watson trade doesn’t happen, it’s quite possible they stick with Darnold and select Sewell at No. 2.
