Despite the Chicago Bears meeting with almost two dozen head coaching candidates during this cycle, fans don’t seem interested in any of them besides those who fit specific criteria. They must be young and have glittering, offensive backgrounds. That is why guys like Ben Johnson and Joe Brady seem to have lots of traction. Much of this stems from the leaguewide trend that began around 20 years ago when elevating the quarterback became the primary way to compete for championships.

Not everybody agrees with this view. Great coaches come from a variety of backgrounds, not just offense. John Harbaugh has turned Lamar Jackson into a superstar. Sean McDermott did the same with Josh Allen. Good coaches are good coaches, right? Bears fans don’t want to hear it. So, in an effort to see if their thinking was accurate or short-sighted, I decided to do some research.

How often do teams that target young offensive minds actually score a hit?

To answer this, I established specific criteria. To keep the data from growing out of control, I focused only on offensive coordinators who produced a #1 offense at least once before getting a head coaching job. This has happened 11 times since 1980. Ted Marchibroda and Marc Trestman also did it, but both were older and had been head coaches before. Here are the results.

• David Shula – Never won more than seven games
• Bruce Coslet – Peaked at 8-8 twice
• Mike Holmgren – Won a Super Bowl in Green Bay
• Mike Shanahan – Won two Super Bowls in Denver
• Brian Billick – Won a Super Bowl in Baltimore
• Mike Martz – Reach a Super Bowl in St. Louis
• Cam Cameron – Went 1-15 in his only season
• Josh McDaniels – Fired in the middle of his second season
• Adam Gase – Made the playoffs his first year but never went back
• Kyle Shanahan – Has reached two Super Bowls

In total, seven of the 11 coaches made the playoffs at least once, five reached a Super Bowl, and three won one.

The Chicago Bears don’t seem just to be chasing a trend.

This approach seems to work often enough to justify sticking to it. If going after a top young offensive mind gives you almost a 1-in-3 chance to reach a Super Bowl, most would take those odds in a heartbeat. Green Bay has capitalized on it for years, starting with Holmgren, then Mike McCarthy and Matt Lafleur. Minnesota has done the same with Dennis Green, Brad Childress, and now Kevin O’Connell. The one time Chicago tried this, they opted for a coordinator who had zero actual control of the offense in Matt Nagy. Everybody knew Andy Reid called the shots in Kansas City.

This time around should be different. Johnson, Brady, Todd Monken, Drew Petzing, and Arthur Smith call their own plays. They are far better prepared for handling the dual job of coaching the team and building an offense around the quarterback. It comes down to who the Chicago Bears believe will be the best leader of the bunch. That is what this methodical search is all about. They know what type of coach they want. The hard part is sifting out the one who can hold a locker room.

The Chicago Bears will interview Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores on Saturday. It isn’t a surprise this is happening. Flores has done wonders for that defense over the past two years, making it one of the NFL’s toughest to play against despite talent deficiencies. He was also teammates with GM Ryan Poles and has previous head coaching experience from his time with the Miami Dolphins. Some feel his hard-nosed, disciplined style is precisely what this team needs after things fell apart under Matt Eberflus.

However, at least one person thinks that is a bad idea. Ryan Fitzpatrick played for several head coaches in his long NFL career as a quarterback, including two years under Flores in 2019 and 2020. During that time, things started out great. The coach was relatable, likable, and demanding. However, his personality seemed to shift as time went on, and Flores came into conflict with many people behind the scenes. It led to several burned bridges, leaving Fitzpatrick to wonder if he truly learned anything.

Brian Flores doesn’t come across as the right guy.

Bringing more discipline to the locker room is important, sure. It must go beyond just that, though. Whoever the Bears bring in as the next head coach must have a plan for quarterback Caleb Williams. Nothing about Brian Flores’ tenure in Miami suggests he will have one. He blew through four offensive coordinators in his three years with the Dolphins and added a feud with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa on top of that. Unless he has learned several lessons since then, it is hard to imagine he can present a sound structure for Williams. That is why the majority of candidates to this point come from an offensive background. Flores would have to absolutely blow them away in the interview. Fitzpatrick and others seem skeptical that happens.

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Just one day after head coach Mike McCarthy became a free agent, leaving his post with the Dallas Cowboys, he was in Wheeling, Illinois, to meet with the Chicago Bears. The organization brought him in on a private jet, put him into nice accommodations, and treated him to dinner. It was a far cry from the treatment they’ve given coaches in the past, confirming the belief that they had revamped their approach. It led many to wonder if the team was serious about making him their top priority for the head coaching position.

Marc Silverman of ESPN 1000 revealed that, contrary to widespread speculation, McCarthy requested the interview be in person. Up until then, almost every Bears meeting had been virtual, which downplayed the idea that Chicago was somehow enamored with the head coach. Things took another interesting direction when a source informed SM that the interview didn’t last as long as anticipated. Expectations were that it would take somewhere around five to six hours. Apparently, it “didn’t come close” to that.

One of two possibilities exists with Mike McCarthy.

The first is that he made such a strong impression that the Bears felt there was no need to let the interview play out longer than necessary. He checked every box. Now, the team simply has to satisfy the Rooney Rule in the next few days, and they can make the hire. The second is that McCarthy didn’t come across with the right message or plan the Bears brass were hoping for. It became clear he was only there to get another job and hadn’t done much homework on what he’d be facing in Chicago. He leaned on his reputation and expected that to be enough.

It isn’t clear what happened at this point. Yet it never feels like a good sign that an interview ends before it’s expected to. Chicago reported that the interview was completed yesterday at around 7:00 p.m. That is right in the middle of dinner time, despite reports they planned to wine and dine him. The source said it never really got that far. Again, one must not let speculation get out of control. Sometimes, meetings don’t need to last long. Still, it is hard not to feel like Mike McCarthy wasn’t well-prepared for this.

With how last season went and the uncertain future facing GM Ryan Poles, it felt like some kind of shakeup might be coming at Halas Hall. Sure enough, it arrived in the most interesting place. Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune revealed the team was parting ways with Krithi Chandrakasan. Poles hired him as the team’s Director of Football Analytics in 2022. He’d previously served as a data scientist in Kansas City for three years, so there was obvious familiarity. It appears Poles didn’t get the results he was hoping for.

This feels like a possible turnover is coming to the Bears analytics department. It isn’t a big shock. While it is difficult to determine what role that section of the front office has played in the team’s roster building, it’s hard to believe it was positive when you see graphics like the one below.

Considering both Claypool and Jones were massive misfires by the Bears, it is easy to see why Poles might think their analytics approach needs serious revamping.

Ryan Poles may seek somebody with more experience this time.

One thing about Chandrakasan that stood out was how short his time in the NFL had been. He spent time in 2016 with Jacksonville as an intern before leaving for other jobs outside football for two years. He joined Kansas City in 2019 before making his way to Chicago in 2022. That meant he had only four years of analytics experience in the NFL before taking the Bears job. It appears Poles may have put too much on his plate before he was ready. Either that or team president Kevin Warren would like to bring in one of his own people.

Maybe the Bears promoted Football Research Analyst Ryan Hubley to the position or Andrea Wright, who is their Football Administration and Analytics Coordinator. She just got promoted last year, indicating she is seen as a rising star in that department. Barring that, expect Ryan Poles to go hunting for help outside the organization. It will be interesting to see who he might try luring to Chicago.

From the outside, the Chicago Bears look like an organization that has no idea what it wants. This is the only explanation many have for why their search for a head coach has ballooned to 20 candidates. They’ve already met with nine, and more loom on the horizon. Some around the league believe this is a signal that they have no clue what they’re looking for and are hoping this wide-net approach helps them figure it out. While an understandable assumption, it’s worth mentioning their previous searches were smaller and still didn’t yield good results.

In truth, the big fear among fans is that the team’s approach is not going well, and they’re flailing around like a fish out of water. Josina Anderson, one of the more well-connected insiders in the league, was asked about the situation. She had some surprising nuggets. While she isn’t prone to giving up many details, her comments were still enlightening.

It appears GM Ryan Poles and team president Kevin Warren spent the weeks after firing Matt Eberflus building a picture of how the coaching search would unfold and reached their conclusions weeks ago. Not only that, but Anderson suggests they even have a primary target.

The Chicago Bears seem to have a course set.

If what Anderson says is true, it’s not hard to connect the dots. Whoever their preferred coaching candidate is, he is likely still involved in the playoffs. Those guys aren’t permitted to take in-person interviews until after January 20th. That leaves the Bears with two options. They can either wait around twiddling their thumbs or try to fill the time by interviewing other candidates. It is a great way to not only pinpoint other quality options but also gather information on how successful organizations operate and how they’d go about fixing the problems that have bedeviled Chicago.

It sounds like answers won’t be forthcoming for some time yet. The Chicago Bears may have an ugly perception around them, but the idea they went into this month without a plan was always foolish. They had over a month to prepare. Say what you want about Poles and Warren, but both are known for being smart individuals. They knew what they wanted to do. Whether it works out as they hope remains to be seen.