When thinking about possible favorites for the next Chicago Bears head coach, you can’t leave out Brian Flores. He has direct ties to GM Ryan Poles. They were teammates at Boston College. He has head coaching experience from his time in Miami, where he had two winning seasons in three years. His reputation is one of toughness, discipline, and a demanding style. All of those are qualities this locker room needs after such a dysfunctional 2024. The big elephant in the room is what Flores will do about the offense.

His reputation in Miami is ugly in that regard. He blew through four different offensive coordinators in three years and had a frosty relationship with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. It is hard to imagine he is the ideal choice to develop Caleb Williams. Flores would need a strong option at offensive coordinator to sell it. Charlie Campbell of Walter Football has information on that front. The coach appears to have a name in mind for that job were he to land in Chicago.

It is somebody Bears fans know well.

Brian Flores banking on Josh McCown is a dangerous gamble.

Nobody disputes the former quarterback has a wealth of NFL experience, having played for almost two decades. His work in Minnesota this past season as their quarterbacks coach resulted in Sam Darnold having a career year, going 13-4. However, McCown has zero experience calling plays in the NFL. He’s never been a coordinator at any level. He’s only been a coach for two seasons. Entrusting him with the pivotal development of Williams is incredibly reckless. Never mind the reputation Brian Flores has for developing an itchy trigger finger to fire guys if they don’t have immediate success. That doesn’t sound like a great plan, at least from the Bears’ perspective.

Everybody keeps taking a stab at what will happen with the Chicago Bears head coaching job. There doesn’t seem to be any singular answer. Dan Graziano of ESPN believes it will be Pete Carroll. His colleague Courtney Cronin thinks it’ll be Joe Brady. Bill Zimmerman of Windy City Gridiron mentioned Brian Flores. There is zero consensus on who the organization has circled, which tells you nobody around the league truly knows what is going on at Halas Hall. That is most likely how GM Ryan Poles and team president Kevin Warren want it.

Still, it hasn’t stopped prominent insiders from revealing what they’ve heard. Jordan Schultz of FOX Sports took his turn during an appearance on The Herd with Colin Cowherd. From what he understands, the Bears job has become a two-horse race between former Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy and Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. It is possible Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores could enter the mix if he has a strong interview, but this is where things sit.

The Chicago Bears’ direction seems relatively clear.

While they continue meeting with prominent coaches from a defensive background, it feels like they’re drifting toward hiring an offensive head coach. This isn’t surprising, given they have Caleb Williams’ future to consider. Marrying him with an offensive coach makes complete sense. Johnson has coordinated the NFL’s best offense this season and one of the best over the past three years. McCarthy has coached for 18 seasons, won 174 games, and was a central influence on the development of Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. Dak Prescott also had the two highest single-season TD totals of his career (37 and 36) under his watch.

At this point, many seem convinced that Johnson is destined for Las Vegas, wooed by new part-owner Tom Brady and a reportedly massive (unofficial) contract offer. The Chicago Bears have had eyes on him dating back to mid-2023 and had a productive first interview. It is apparent Johnson is a big fan of Williams. However, if he does opt to leave the division for elsewhere, McCarthy seems to be their contingency plan. That isn’t the outcome many fans want, but it is still a sound strategy.

Despite the Chicago Bears meeting with almost two dozen head coaching candidates during this cycle, fans don’t seem interested in any of them besides those who fit specific criteria. They must be young and have glittering, offensive backgrounds. That is why guys like Ben Johnson and Joe Brady seem to have lots of traction. Much of this stems from the leaguewide trend that began around 20 years ago when elevating the quarterback became the primary way to compete for championships.

Not everybody agrees with this view. Great coaches come from a variety of backgrounds, not just offense. John Harbaugh has turned Lamar Jackson into a superstar. Sean McDermott did the same with Josh Allen. Good coaches are good coaches, right? Bears fans don’t want to hear it. So, in an effort to see if their thinking was accurate or short-sighted, I decided to do some research.

How often do teams that target young offensive minds actually score a hit?

To answer this, I established specific criteria. To keep the data from growing out of control, I focused only on offensive coordinators who produced a #1 offense at least once before getting a head coaching job. This has happened 11 times since 1980. Ted Marchibroda and Marc Trestman also did it, but both were older and had been head coaches before. Here are the results.

• David Shula – Never won more than seven games
• Bruce Coslet – Peaked at 8-8 twice
• Mike Holmgren – Won a Super Bowl in Green Bay
• Mike Shanahan – Won two Super Bowls in Denver
• Brian Billick – Won a Super Bowl in Baltimore
• Mike Martz – Reach a Super Bowl in St. Louis
• Cam Cameron – Went 1-15 in his only season
• Josh McDaniels – Fired in the middle of his second season
• Adam Gase – Made the playoffs his first year but never went back
• Kyle Shanahan – Has reached two Super Bowls

In total, seven of the 11 coaches made the playoffs at least once, five reached a Super Bowl, and three won one.

The Chicago Bears don’t seem just to be chasing a trend.

This approach seems to work often enough to justify sticking to it. If going after a top young offensive mind gives you almost a 1-in-3 chance to reach a Super Bowl, most would take those odds in a heartbeat. Green Bay has capitalized on it for years, starting with Holmgren, then Mike McCarthy and Matt Lafleur. Minnesota has done the same with Dennis Green, Brad Childress, and now Kevin O’Connell. The one time Chicago tried this, they opted for a coordinator who had zero actual control of the offense in Matt Nagy. Everybody knew Andy Reid called the shots in Kansas City.

This time around should be different. Johnson, Brady, Todd Monken, Drew Petzing, and Arthur Smith call their own plays. They are far better prepared for handling the dual job of coaching the team and building an offense around the quarterback. It comes down to who the Chicago Bears believe will be the best leader of the bunch. That is what this methodical search is all about. They know what type of coach they want. The hard part is sifting out the one who can hold a locker room.

The Chicago Bears will interview Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores on Saturday. It isn’t a surprise this is happening. Flores has done wonders for that defense over the past two years, making it one of the NFL’s toughest to play against despite talent deficiencies. He was also teammates with GM Ryan Poles and has previous head coaching experience from his time with the Miami Dolphins. Some feel his hard-nosed, disciplined style is precisely what this team needs after things fell apart under Matt Eberflus.

However, at least one person thinks that is a bad idea. Ryan Fitzpatrick played for several head coaches in his long NFL career as a quarterback, including two years under Flores in 2019 and 2020. During that time, things started out great. The coach was relatable, likable, and demanding. However, his personality seemed to shift as time went on, and Flores came into conflict with many people behind the scenes. It led to several burned bridges, leaving Fitzpatrick to wonder if he truly learned anything.

Brian Flores doesn’t come across as the right guy.

Bringing more discipline to the locker room is important, sure. It must go beyond just that, though. Whoever the Bears bring in as the next head coach must have a plan for quarterback Caleb Williams. Nothing about Brian Flores’ tenure in Miami suggests he will have one. He blew through four offensive coordinators in his three years with the Dolphins and added a feud with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa on top of that. Unless he has learned several lessons since then, it is hard to imagine he can present a sound structure for Williams. That is why the majority of candidates to this point come from an offensive background. Flores would have to absolutely blow them away in the interview. Fitzpatrick and others seem skeptical that happens.

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