Week One is finally here!!!
This weekly column aims to give readers some clarity when it comes to start and sit decisions; it will help you to decide who might be worth plugging into your lineup and who might be better suited riding that pine. This column will NOT address the biggest name players in the game. In most cases, you will want to start your studs. For example, the Giants are playing the Jaguars in week one. Jalen Ramsey and the rest of the Jacksonville D are scary good. That doesn’t mean you don’t start Beckham during opening weekend. Beckham is genuinely elite and even against tight coverage he has the opportunity to put up huge numbers. You don’t want to miss out on that potential week-winning production because you decided to start Rishard Matthews instead of your first round pick.
START
Tyler Lockett: The Seahawks face off against a tough Broncos defense in week one, but they will find a way to put up some points. We still don’t know how Baldwin’s knee is feeling, but we do know that Paul Richardson and Jimmy Graham were given the boot in the offseason. Sure, Jaron Brown has wandered out of the desert, and Brandon Marshall is getting his Hoveround outfitted with a new green and blue paint job, but in reality, only Lockett has any substantial connection with Wilson. Plus, the Seahawks paid him to the tune of a $32 million contract in the offseason.
Denver is a +3 favorite to win this game, but Wilson’s scrambling ability should give Lockett plenty of opportunities to take advantage of broken coverages.
Tevin Coleman: Atlanta makes the trip to Philly to face the reigning world champs on Thursday Night Football. When the schedule was released, this game seemed like a nightmare for the Falcons. That is no longer the case, as the Eagles are facing some significant hurdles at the start of the season.
Carson Wentz may not be ready for live action, and it appears the clock has once again struck midnight on Nick Foles, turning him back into the pumpkin that is on his fourth team in four years. On top of the uncertainty and incompetent play at quarterback, Alshon Jeffrey will not be ready to play in week one. Ajayi and Agholor have been dealing with mysterious “lower body injuries” for several weeks. If the Eagles offense sputters, that will force the defense to be on the field far too often, especially against a team that boasts the triple threat of the 2016 MVP (Matt Ryan), an elite level wide receiver(Julio) and one of the best running back tandems in the league.
Coleman is a capable receiver out of the backfield but can also run between the tackles, which makes him a versatile threat. If Sark learned his lesson from last year, he will utilize both Freeman and Coleman early and often to wear out that Philly defense.
Cameron Meredith: Division rivalries are usually tough matchups, but this game looks to be a blow out in the making. I don’t see how the Fitztragic-led Bucs can hope to keep up with the Saints in the Superdome. Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas will be the primary beneficiaries in fantasy, but Meredith is a big-bodied receiver with good hands that the Saints coveted in the off-season. The Bucs boast the league’s 32nd ranked pass defense in 2018 according to Football Outsiders. Chris Conte and a 35-year-old Brent Grimes will have a hard time stopping the likes of Meredith.
Corey Davis: I am super high on Davis this year so he will likely make plenty of appearances in this column. His rookie season numbers don’t look great on paper, but the last time we saw him in meaningful action he torched the pats for 63 yards and two touchdowns. The Pats D wasn’t great in the playoffs, but that was an encouraging showing for the talented young receiver nonetheless. Plenty of guys go their whole careers without a two TD game. The Titans passing game isn’t exactly killer, and Davis is by far the most talented of the bunch. Walker and Matthews will get their targets as serviceable veterans, but if Davis and Mariota have kept up their chemistry during the offseason, he should have a massive game against the Dolphins’ suspect defense.
SIT
T.Y. Hilton: T.Y. may be the number one receiver on many fantasy squads that went RB/RB to start drafts. It is hard to sit the first receiver taken, but sometimes it’s for the best. I personally am I big believer in the idea that Luck is entirely back and, as a result, that Hilton is back as well. But we haven’t seen it yet, and that should give you pause.
Hilton’s fantasy value has always stemmed from his ability to get behind defenses. He wins by coming down with chunk yardage and big touchdowns. Last year, without Luck, Hilton looked like he had lost a step. Hilton truthers maintain it wasn’t that he was a half-step slower at age 28; instead, he and Jacoby Brissett never developed the type of chemistry Hilton and Luck enjoyed.
Even if Luck is fully healthy, he still will have some rust to shake off. He hasn’t played in a regular season game in 21 months. It’s been 37 months since he last played without a shoulder injury of some sort. Think about that for a moment: thirty-seven months. The last time Luck played without a shoulder surgery, “Lean On” by Major Lazer & DJ Snake Featuring MO was still the top song in the land. Ok, bad example. I don’t remember that song or those people either. At all. The point remains: Luck and Hilton haven’t been at full health together for over 3 years. It’s worth sitting Hilton against a decent Cincy D until we know what is really going on in Indy.
Sammy Watkins: Watkins, the number four overall pick In the 2014 draft, is an outstanding player. At least, he should be. The thing is, most outstanding players aren’t on their third team in three years. Outstanding players tend to stick around and make themselves at home. Watkins wasn’t outstanding on a bad Buffalo team. He wasn’t exceptionally good on a good Rams team, either, and that’s concerning. What is he going to be on a KC team that just lost its OC and starting QB? We know that Kelce and Hill are the primary targets and have already spent two offseasons bonding with Mahomes. We also know Hunt is the primary back. Hunt won’t catch 80+ passes, but he will get his share of the workload. So where does that leave the big bodied, prototypical Sammy Watkins? Third in the pecking order? Fourth, even?
The idea of starting a team’s fourth option is unpalatable to begin with. Starting that guy against a top ten defense? No thank you.
