The running back position is dominating the top of drafts in 2018. Events last year such as injuries to elite wideouts and quarterbacks (Beckham, Luck, Rodgers, to name a few) as well as impressive performances from guys like Gurley, Bell, Hunt, and Kamara have conspired to make the running back a hot commodity in fantasy football.
Some combination of Gurley, Bell, Johnson, and Elliott are going in the top four of most drafts but what about the rest of the running back group? Below you will find the top 36 running backs, ranked in the order that I would draft them in a .5ppr set-up. I’ve added analysis to the top 12 guys. Fair warning: these are my own rankings, and they will differ significantly in spots from the rankings of others.
RUNNING BACK TOP 12
Todd Gurley: Gurley was far-and-away the best running back in fantasy last year. The Rams have added Brandin Cooks and beefed up their defense, but there is no reason to think they won’t continue to rely heavily on their star running back. There may be some regression coming for Gurley as he likely won’t turn so many dump-offs into huge plays but he is still a rock star on a good team.
David Johnson: D.J. had a better fantasy season in 2016 than Gurley had in 2017, scoring more touchdowns than the Rams’ back while compiling nearly identical yardage. Yes, Johnson is returning from a season-ending injury, but his wrist is unlikely to impact his production this year. The last time we saw Johnson on the field in a meaningful game, he had already tallied over 90 yards and six catches by the third quarter of a week one tilt against the Lions. The Cardinals are worse now than they were in 2016 but Johnson is not.
Le’Veon Bell: Bell is a beast, but his 2017 campaign got off to a slow start after his hold out from camp and preseason action. The Steelers’ bell cow is holding out again this year so its fair to assume that it might take him a few weeks to ramp up to full speed. It is widely believed that Bell will be playing for a different squad in 2019 so expect the Steelers to run him into the ground and get max usage out of their star back during his last year.
Ezekiel Elliott: 2018 could be a tough year for Zeke. With an injury-plagued O-line and the weakest corps of receivers in recent memory, Dallas has some serious issues to overcome. There is no doubt that the offense will run through Elliott but the sledding will be tough. Reports out of camp indicate that Zeke will be targeted more in the passing game this year which will boost his numbers. The reality is that while the situation is not ideal, Elliott has the talent and the tenacity to be a top-five back this year.
Leonard Fournette: Fournette started off 2017 with a bang, scoring at least one touchdown in each of his first six games. Then the injury bug came a calling, which has been an issue for Fournette in his career. Fournette has the ability as a between the tackles runner to put up huge numbers on a run-first team that made an appearance in the AFC Championship game last year. I expect double-digit touchdowns and over a thousand yards for this second year running back.
Dalvin Cook: The dual-threat Cook showed flashes of brilliance in the first few games of his career before an ACL ended his season. In the past, taking a guy with a recent ACL injury early in drafts was enough for people to question your sanity, but modern medicine has normalized ACL repairs to the point that players bounce right back. There is some concern about the Vikings offensive line being subpar but having Diggs, Thielen, and Rudolph on the field to keep defenses honest should help mitigate that concern from a fantasy perspective.
Saquan Barkley: The great unknown. People are high on Barkley this draft season, and for good reason. He was an electric runner in college who crushed numerous Penn State records. The Giants are an underrated team, and Barkley looks to be their bell cow back. With an improved O-line and a bevy of pass catchers that includes OBJ, defenses will not be able to stack the box against the rook. We have not seen him do it at the pro level, but Barkley has the talent and opportunity to be a top-five back in 2018.
Melvin Gordon: Gordon is built like a house. That is the first thing most reporters, scouts, and analysts report upon meeting the Charger for the first time. Being a physical freak is a good thing for a guy who gets the workload that Gordon does. He has been one of the highest utilized backs to begin with and Charges head coach Anthony Lynn intends to use him as a receiver out of the backfield more often this year. In fantasy, a good rule of thumb is to draft good players on good teams. The Chargers are an outstanding team, and Gordon is a good player.
Jordan Howard: The most underrated player in fantasy. Howard finished second in the NFL only to Elliott in rushing yards in 2016 despite starting 25% fewer games than his counterpart in Dallas. Using a combination of antiquated play-calling and good old fashioned bad decision making, John Fox tried his level best to make Howard irrelevant in 2017. Howard responded by rushing for over 1,120 yards and scoring nine touchdowns, 35% of the team’s entire offensive touchdowns. The Bears play calling is expected to be much more dynamic this year under new HC Matt Nagy. The additions of quality receiving targets such as Allen Robinson, Trey Burton, Taylor Gabriel and Anthony Miller should lighten the boxes Howard will face as well. Howard could end up as a top three guy at the position yet he is going much later than that.
Joe Mixon: Can you say “post-hype breakout”? Joe Mixon might be a horrible person, but he is also a tremendous talent. Mixon’s rookie year got off to a rocky start, what with the Bengals O-line being terrible and the entire offense struggling. On top of that, he had a few nagging injuries and looked like he lacked burst on his carries. Luckily, the Bengals have strengthened their offensive line, and Mixon has shed 10 pounds in an attempt to get faster. Gio Bernard will still have a role but Mixon will be much more heavily utilized and will have every opportunity to succeed. If the former Sooner can up his yards per carry numbers than he will have a tremendous season in 2018.
Kareem Hunt: Hunt was a force during his rookie campaign. His smooth running style combined with highly efficient per carry numbers led Hunt to being named the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year. Even more impressive is that he did all of this behind a suspect offensive line. Unfortunately, a lot has changed in Kansas City this off-season though mostly for the better. A new quarterback, a new offensive coordinator, and a new playmaker in Sammy Watkins means Hunt’s usage will undoubtedly be different than in 2017. If he shows regression in his efficiency, which is likely, his numbers will suffer. That being said, he has shown the ability to be a top-four back.
Alvin Kamara: I am lower on Kamara than just about anyone you will find. Yes, his rookie campaign was inspiring. Averaging over six yards a carry and 10 yards per reception is incredible, but it is also precisely why I am down on Kamara. There is a negative regression coming. There has to be. He will likely see higher volume during Ingram’s suspension, but more isn’t necessarily better for someone like Kamara. I also can’t imagine the Saints being as run-heavy as they were in 2017. Kamara has proven he has the chops to finish as a top-five guy at the position, but I wouldn’t bet on a repeat of 2017.
THE REST OF THE PACK
13) D. Freeman
14) C. McCaffrey
15) J. McKinnon (INJ, Out for Season)
16) D. Henry
17) L. Miller
18) R. Freeman
19) C. Hyde
20) I. Crowell
21) D. Lewis
22) K. Drake
23) R. Penny
24) A. Collins
25) C. Thompson
26) T. Cohen
27) M. Lynch
28) T. Coleman
29) C. Carson
30) S. Michel
31) M. Ingram
32) D. Johnson
33) J. Ajayi
34) A. Peterson
35) R. Jones II
36) A. Jones
