Each week, I will be breaking down each NFL matchup and the fantasy implications for it!
The goal is to bring you game flow predictions, must start players and players you should temper expectations for. Along with other things to pay attention to throughout the game!
(The first half of games will come out on Thursdays, while the second half will come out on Friday)
Dallas (6-5) vs. New Orleans (10-1)
These are two teams that are on hot streaks as of late. Both teams love to win through the run game, while building off of that for play action passes and deep shots down the field.
This game is going to be won through the trenches. I expect the Saints to come out and run Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara ragged throughout the course of the evening. On the other side of the ball, I expect the Cowboys to do the same thing with Zeke.
I believe Ingram and Kamara have big weeks, while pass-catchers may have a tougher time getting going in this game. Thomas is still worth playing, but unless he scores a touchdown, I think you’re going to be disappointed with the performance. Tre’Quan Smith is a FLEX play at best in my eyes.
For Dallas, Zeke might have a tough time against this league-best Saints run defense, which is only allowing 3.6 yards per carry to opposing running backs. You still need to start Zeke, but he might not deliver the big week performance you’ve grown accustomed to from him recently.
Dak Prescott and Drew Brees are both worthwhile starters in this game. I expect points to be put up on the board and Dallas may have to play from behind, which could lead to additional passing attempts for Dak. However, Amari Cooper is the only wide receiver for Dallas I would consider starting in this game.
Score Prediction: New Orleans 30, Dallas 21
Must start players: Zeke, Cooper, Ingram, Kamara, Thomas, Brees
Chicago (8-3) vs. New York Giants (3-8)
Mitchell Trubisky is questionable for this game on Sunday. Therefore, the pass-catching options for Chicago need to be downgraded with Chase Daniel scheduled to make his second straight start.
I still expect Tarik Cohen and Taylor Gabriel to have value, as they did last week in Detroit, but Trey Burton, Allen Robinson, Jordan Howard and Anthony Miller all get a slight bump down.
As for New York, you need to be worried about OBJ specifically. Eli Manning has shown a tendency to crumble under pressure, and if there’s one thing the Bears have done exceptionally this entire season on defense it’s create pressure. Unless the Giants plan on utilizing the quick screen game, you’re looking at a tough day for OBJ to get quality targets.
This could be a game where OBJ finishes with 10 catches, but low yardage total…barring him breaking off a 60 yard run, which he’s been known to do.
As for Saquon Barkley, you start him. But just like with Ezekiel Elliot, you might need to temper expectations. The Bears defense has been shutting down opposing running backs to a tune of 3.6 yards per carry also. I expect a high amount of targets for Saquon in this game though to alleviate the relentless pass-rsh of the Bears defense.
Otherwise, I’m not willing to start anyone else on the Giants offense. This should be an incredibly difficult matchup for the Giants to find success in.
Score Prediction: Bears 24, Giants 17
Must start players: Cohen, Gabriel, Barkley, OBJ
Arizona (2-9) vs. Green Bay (4-6-1)
From the Green Bay side of this game, Aaron Jones is about as much of a must start as they come. Arizona is currently surrendering the third-most rushing yards in the league and Aaron Jones comes in with a 6.0 yards per carry on the season.
Davante Adams is a must start every single week because of his touchdown upside, but aside from those two players, there’s no pass-catching options in this game I’m particularly excited about.
Aaron Rodgers is start-worthy in this game. I expect a couple touchdowns from him in a “get right” game for the Packers.
On the other side of the ball, David Johnson is the only player I’m considering starting in this game. If you have to, Larry Fitzgerald could put together a decent game, but I highly doubt it. Rickey Seals-Jones has been so inconsistent this year, it’s been hard to trust him. But I know there’s some of you that may be forced to play him. (Proceed at your own risk)
Score Prediction: Green Bay 31, Arizona 14
Must start players: Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, David Johnson
Indianapolis (6-5) vs. Jacksonville (3-8)
Indianapolis has been on a run lately, winning five straight games. One of those wins came over the Jacksonville Jaguars in week 10…
With the way he’s been playing lately, I can’t argue against starting Andrew Luck. He’s been finding his tight ends with consistency and Eric Ebron has developed into the tight end everyone thought he would be in Detroit. With Jack Doyle out for the year, those targets could increase for Ebron moving forward…
Marlon Mack is currently questionable for the game on Sunday due to a concussion. If he isn’t able to start, Jordan Wilkins will get the nod. Even though the Jaguars are 3-8, their defense is still solid, so I would try to move away from starting either of those options if you can.
TY Hilton has moved back into an every week starter, but going up against the Jaguars and Jalen Ramsey is a challenge. In Week 10 though, he was able to put together a solid game finishing with a 3-77 stat line.
On the other side of the ball, there’s not much to like here. Carlos Hyde is a start candidate with Fournette suspended for this game, but Yeldon will still be involved. I believe you can start both of them and get decent games out of either of them.
As for any of the other pass-catching options, I’m staying away with Cody Kessler under center. Moncrief, Westbrook, Chark, Kole…any one of them could end up with a touchdown, but I’m not willing to roll the dice and try to figure out which one it will be.
I think the Colts command this game and I like them to finish with another victory and go to 7-5.
Score Prediction: Colts 21, Jaguars 17
Must start players: Eric Ebron, TY Hilton, Andrew Luck, Carlos Hyde
Cleveland (4-6-1) vs. Houston (8-3)
Houston is on fire after starting the season 0-3. They’ve won 8 straight and that defense is no joke.
Deandre Hopkins is an every week automatic start and I expect him to have a good game against the Cleveland secondary. With Keke Coutee injured (and not at 100% again) I expect Demaryius Thomas to be involved. He’s in FLEX consideration for me this week if I’m in a pinch.
Lamar Miller showed some juice on Monday night and I think that he turns in another decent performance here this week.
And while Deshaun Watson hasn’t looked like the superstar fantasy quarterback he was last year, he still turned in a solid performance against a good Titans defense last week. This week is a much more favorable matchup and I would roll out Deshaun with confidence.
As for Cleveland, I’m sitting Baker Mayfield this week. I think he can put together a solid game, but I’m not betting on it. As mentioned before, this Houston defense is for real and could throw some things at the rookie QB that he’s never seen before.
Jarvis Landry has moved into cut category for fantasy purposes, while Antonio Callaway has slowly started regaining some trust in fantasy players’ minds. However, the only true pass-catching weapon I like in this game is tight end David Njoku.
Houston is currently giving up the 6th most fantasy points to tight ends on the season and I think Njoku is going to be a consistent target for Baker as he’s under duress. Also, you should start Nick Chubb but I would temper expectations. Houston’s run defense has been shutting opposing running backs down and I don’t expect the numbers Chubb has put up in recent weeks. But he’s shown that he can break a couple tackles and take one to the house, so you need to continue to play him.
Score Prediction: Houston 24, Cleveland 21
Must start players: Deandre Hopkins, Deshaun Watson, Lamar Miller, David Njoku, Nick Chubb
Carolina (6-5) vs. Tampa Bay (4-7)
Jameis Winston is scheduled to get the start again and this means there will be some solid fantasy production to go around for the Tampa Bay offense.
If DeSean Jackson misses this game, which it currently looks like he’s going to, I expect things to open up for Chris Godwin and Adam Humphries. (Mike Evans is a weekly automatic start)
Chris Godwin will be the recipient of the deep targets down the field, while Adam Humphries will have increased snaps and the short-yardage looks. If Jackson misses, I would start both Godwin and Humphries. However, if Jackson plays, I would only play Godwin in a pinch.
Peyton Barber is a “play only if you have to” type of player and I would look elsewhere in this matchup. The same goes for Jacquizz Rodgers.
As for Winston, I believe he could turn in a good game, but I would be ready for a couple turnovers from him. There are other options I would play ahead of him. But as for his tight end target, I believe you can fire up Cameron Brate with confidence this week.
For Carolina, fire up a lot of these options. Tampa Bay’s defense is like swiss-cheese and I would be comfortable playing a lot of the pass-catchers on the Panthers.
Christian McCaffrey is going to have a game that will challenge last week’s point totals against Seattle. Tampa Bay can’t stop opposing pass-catching running backs and I expect Norv Turner (Carolina offensive coordinator) to exploit this weakness repeatedly. DJ Moore has taken over WR1 duties in this offense, but his fantasy production could take a hit if Devin Funchess returns this week.
Curtis Samuel is a risky play, but one that could pay off in this matchup. I would feel okay starting him if Funchess misses another week, but if Funchess plays I’m most likely going to look elsewhere.
As for Greg Olsen, I would look somewhere else. I believe he’s near the end and this offense has shifted styles from the one that featured him in years past.
Score Prediction: Carolina 31, Tampa Bay 28
Must start players: Christian McCaffrey, Cam Newton, DJ Moore*, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin*, Adam Humphries*, Cameron Brate
Buffalo (4-7) vs. Miami (5-6)
Josh Allen is coming off a game that proved two things;
- He is an athletic quarterback who can do things with his legs that not many quarterbacks can do.
- He has no one to throw to.
I was a fan of Josh Allen coming out in the draft and liked him more than most. However, this year he’s landed in a quarterback’s worst situation. The “weapons” he has to throw to are not anything special and therefore, he’s not going to be able to reach his full potential.
But, he’s proven that his rushing ability is something to be accounted for and has fantasy value! So, moving forward into next year I’m really liking what Josh Allen could become if they add some pieces around him, but for this year I’m not interested in rolling that dice.
The only player I’m interested in playing this week for Buffalo is LeSean McCoy. The Bills have focused on running the ball and Shady was given 17 carries last week. He wasn’t able to do much with them, but this week could be different against the Dolphins and their 5th worst ranked run defense. Otherwise, I’m not interested in playing any other options from the Bills offense.
On the other side of the ball, the Dolphins switched back to Ryan Tannehill under center last week and it did not go super well. No pass-catchers on the Dolphins yielded any value outside of Kenyan Drake and Leonte Carroo on one big play.
Drake is the only player I’m interested in starting in this game that I expect to be low-scoring. Buffalo’s defense is solid though and Sean McDermott is going to know that Drake is the only weapon he needs to be really concerned stopping…I’m not expecting a big game from Drake, but start him if you have to.
Score Prediction: Buffalo 17, Miami 14
Must start players: LeSean McCoy
Denver (5-6) vs. Cincinnati (5-6)
This past week, I wrote in my Waiver Wire Adds article that Case Keenum was a waiver wire/streaming target of mine.
Cincinnati is currently surrendering 439.6 total yards per game on average this season. Which translates to, “Start players against Cincinnati!”
Keenum should be a great play this week, along with Emmanuel Sanders if his injury isn’t anything serious.
Emmanuel Sanders dealing with heal injury https://t.co/fKC5qKY5jK via @blaineblontz #fantasyfootball
— FantasyPros (@FantasyProsNFL) November 29, 2018
I expect Courtland Sutton to see increased targets and this could be a breakout game for DaeSean Hamilton. With Jeff Heuerman out for the season at TE, some of those shallow targets are going to be available for a guy like Hamilton…
Start. Phillip. Lindsay. He’s currently averaging 7.6 yards per carry these past two weeks and the Bengals can’t stop anyone on defense. He’s taken over that backfield and I don’t think Royce Freeman is even a factor in this game.
For the Bengals, AJ Green is expected to return this week, which is great news. However, what his fantasy production with Jeff Driskel at quarterback will be remains to be seen. I’m starting AJ Green, but I’m not expecting any sort of big week coming off of injury and with question marks at QB.
As for the rest of the Bengals wideouts, I’m pumping the brakes on them. Tyler Boyd becomes a borderline play for me and I’m definitely not willing to put John Ross out there (though I don’t know how many people actively were).
The only other player I’m confident in starting this week is Joe Mixon. I believe the Bengals are going to attempt to lean on the run game a little bit more than normal, so I expect more carries for Mixon this week. You can fire him up with confidence purely based on volume.
Score Prediction: Denver 24, Bengals 17
Must start players: Case Keenum, Emmanuel Sanders, Phillip Lindsay, AJ Green, Joe Mixon
Those are the first half of the NFL games this week and the expected fantasy production out of each of them!
If you didn’t see a player you have a question over listed out here, feel free to reach out on Twitter @KyleYNFL and ask me! With these breakdowns, it’s difficult to hit each and every player for every game, so feel free to reach out and ask your question there!
