Although Notre Dame is on bye, the message this week is simple, Beat Michigan.
As a Notre Dame fan, it’s a right of passage to hate the Michigan Wolverines.
But talk is cheap if your team can’t back it up. Can we beat Michigan this year? You’re damn right we can.
To do so, Notre Dame needs to focus on what they do best if they want to march into Ann Arbor and beat the Michigan Wolverines. Let’s take a look at the numbers and see what story they tell in my midyear evaluation of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish
What We Do Well
So what exactly have Brian Kelly’s Fighting Irish done best to the midway point of the season?
Securing the Rock
Notre Dame has been taking care of the football as well as anybody. They have lost two fumbles all year. The first was by quarterback Ian Book against Louisville, the other was the punt return by senior captain Chris Finke against Virginia.
The running backs coaches have emphasized ball security and it shows, even with the transition from ex-Notre Dame running back coach Autry Denson to the current in Lance Taylor.
In fact, Notre Dame has the longest current streak in the FBS of carries without a fumble by a running back. The streak heading into the game against Michigan sits at 1,247 according to the universities website.
Additionally, Notre Dame has been winning the turnover battle better than any Power 5 team in the country. The turnover margin sits at +10 with four giveaways to our 14 takeaways. They are forcing 1.67 turnovers per game.
Offensive Line University
In addition to the running game protecting the ball, Power Football Focus has graded Notre Dame’s offense line 94.4/100 – first among all teams in pass blocking efficiency.
The Notre Dame offensive line leads the way in pass-blocking efficiency through 7 weeks of action! pic.twitter.com/RapcS6wz0h
— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 16, 2019
Book still has some work to do getting through his progressions more quickly, but major credit to the offense line. On the season, Book’s completion percentage is down five percent from a year ago, but still at 63.2%. Book and the rest of the Fighting Irish rank 17th nationally in passing efficiency with a team ratio of 16 touchdowns to two interceptions. Book accounts for 14 of the 16 TD’s but both of the picks.
Red Hot In The Red Zone
When it comes to scoring, Notre Dame only ranks 37th in total offense, but when it matters most, the Irish have converted. Through six games, the Irish, along with Iowa and LSU, lead the nation in red zone efficiency. Notre Dame has had 22 total red zone attempts, and have only settled for a field goal on three occasions. Notre Dame leads the list in red zone touchdowns scoring touchdowns in 86.3% of their red zone trips.
Opportunities for Improvement
On the flip side of everything the Irish are doing right this season, there is still some concern for Notre Dame to turn the corner.
Extending Drives
How did Army nearly beat Michigan, or Clemson narrowly escape from North Carolina?
In both scenarios, the underdogs won the time of possession game. Notre Dame, however, currently ranks 116/130 in time of possession. This crucial stat needs to improve for the Irish to beat a ranked team like Michigan.
Get this. Notre Dame was out-possessed by Georgia 34:31 to 25:29. Couple this with losing the turnover battle and it is surprising that they only lost by six points.
Against Virginia, Notre only had possession for 26:28 versus the 33:32 for UVA. Forcing five turnovers happened to keep the Irish away from back-to-back L’s.
For the most recent victory, Notre Dame played keep away from Southern California 31:24 to 28:36. There were zero turnovers and each team had 25 first downs. In a three point game, I can confidently say those two minutes and 54 seconds were the difference between a win and a loss.
Convert Third Downs
One way to extend drives is converting on third down. The Fighting Irish rank 40th converting third downs at a 42.9% clip. While they fall in the top third of the NCAA, seven programs ranked ahead of Notre Dame are in the top 15 in converting third downs. The exception is Clemson who falls at 42nd.
If they can find their way to converting third downs at 50% they will be statistically speaking, a playoff worthy team.
Red Zone Defense
Another shortcoming this year has been the defense once opposing offenses get into the red zone. They have allowed 13 red zone scores out of 14 attempts. At 92.9%, Notre Dame ranks 121/130. If there is some positive here, it is that opposing teams have scored a touchdown only 62% of the time.
Part of this I attribute to the “wait and see” defensive approach they have been taking to mitigating the big plays down field. Kelly and defensive coordinator Clark Lea have been just outside the top third of total defenses allowing 349.2 yards per game.
Onward to Victory
Although there are some things to work on the Golden Domer’s are actually top 15 overall in points allowed per game at 16.8 PPG.
At mid season, the Irish rank 9th overall with five wins and the single loss to Georgia. The game against Michigan will define the rest of the season for the Irish, as it is the last remaining ranked team on the schedule.
Look for the Irish look to rejuvenate over the bye week and come out crisp on October 26, 2019 under the lights in Ann Arbor. Meanwhile, Michigan will have to travel into Penn State and face a conference foe who looks to close the door on the Wolverines slim hopes at a Big Ten championship.
For now, though. We enjoy an idle weekend and hope for chaos on the road to the college football playoff.
