A week and a half ago, Chris Getz confirmed that Michael Kopech would be moving to the bullpen permanently. This decision caught many people off guard. Kopech had started 52 games over the past two years and seemed destined to stay in the starting rotation this season despite a poor 2023. After all, Kopech has immense talent and the White Sox have few quality starting rotation options right now.
However, it did not play out that way, and moving Kopech to the bullpen has already started to pay dividends. He had a clean inning with two strikeouts yesterday, and his fastball touched 101 MPH in that inning for the first time in seemingly forever. He is taking to his new role fast, and the organization’s decision to switch him from a starter to a reliever might have saved Kopech’s career. That is not an exaggeration either.
Kopech’s Best Season
The most successful season of Kopech’s MLB career was in 2021, when he was primarily a reliever. He pitched in 44 games that season, 40 out of the bullpen. His 2021 numbers were his career bests nearly across the board, including stats such as ERA, WHIP, FIP, K/9, fastball velocity, exit velocity, hard hit %, K%, BB%, and whiff %. Given his immense success in the bullpen and prospect pedigree, the White Sox moved him into the rotation full-time in 2022. Given his talent and upside, it made sense to do so at that point. Quality starting pitchers are scarce, and it was worth the try to see if he could do it.
Kopech’s Subsequent Regression
Unfortunately for Kopech, his career has significantly derailed since becoming a full-time starting pitcher. He was arguably the worst-qualified starter in the sport a year ago. Kopech was so bad that the team moved him to the bullpen at the end of last season because he struggled immensely every time he took the ball as a starter.
The contrast between 2021, Kopech’s best season, and 2023, his worst season, is stark per Baseball Savant.
- Fastball Velocity: 97.3 MPH vs. 95.2 MPH
- Exit Velocity: 88.3 MPH vs. 90.3 MPH
- Barrel %: 8.9% vs. 12.7%
- Hard Hit %: 35.7% vs. 42.4%
- SLG: .374 vs. .470
- K%: 36.1% vs. 22.7%
- BB%: 8.4% vs. 15.4%
- Whiff%: 32.8% vs. 26.9%
- First Pitch Strike %: 63% vs. 53.5%
In other words, Kopech has regressed virtually across the board over time. His two main pitches, his four-seam fastball and slider, have worsened as the years have passed. The 2023 season saw him getting hit harder than ever before while also fooling fewer opposing batters. Kopech is in his physical prime and should be improving each year, not getting worse. Unfortunately, it has not played out that way.
Tough Situation
The White Sox are now in somewhat of a bind with Kopech. He is now 27 years old and is not that young anymore. He also has only two years of team control remaining, so there is no longer an extended period for him to work through his issues. The decision to move him to the bullpen felt like a last-ditch effort for him to carve out a productive role for himself on the south side. It is now or never for Kopech, at least in a White Sox uniform.
Reason For Optimism
While one could argue that the White Sox moving Kopech to the bullpen is a “demotion,” it is not. Some pitchers do not have the stamina or ability to be a starting pitcher but can excel out of the bullpen. Look no further than three of Kopech’s former teammates, Reynaldo Lopez, Liam Hendriks, and Kendall Graveman. All three were starting pitchers early in their careers but struggled in that role and later found immense success in the bullpen. There are countless examples of failed starters who became excellent relievers and got big paydays on the free agent market. Kopech could easily be the newest example of this trend.
While Kopech’s spring sample as a reliever is tiny and should be looked at accordingly, he already looks significantly better in that role than he did as a starter this spring. Letting it loose for an inning at a time seems to fit him better than facing the same lineup multiple times in a game. He seems to be able to hold his fastball velocity a lot better over one inning than over five or six innings, which is a crucial ingredient in his success.
Final Word
The pecking order in the White Sox bullpen is also up for grabs. Kopech could emerge as the favorite for the setup or even the closer role. This decision could be the best thing that ever happened to him regarding his career trajectory.
