Folks, the time is finally upon us. White Sox fans all across the country have had this off season circled on our calendar from the moment the White Sox traded Chris Sale, signifying the beginning of their rebuild.
From that moment, every fan, analyst, and front office member realized that the White Sox would be in a position to spend more money now than they ever have before. For those of you that still quite don’t understand just how much freedom Chicago will have when it comes to handing out massive contracts this winter, that’s okay. We’re going to go over all of that right now.
The Payroll
Right now, the White Sox currently have roughly 20M on the payroll for 2019. That comes after declining James Shield’s 16M option, but before tendering other players as they hit arbitration. Right now, the White Sox have 7 players eligible for arbitration heading into 2019: Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia, Yolmer Sanchez, Carlos Rodon, Matt Davidson, Leury Garcia, and Danny Farquar. Of those 7, I would tender the first 5 without question, and non-tender Leury Garcia and Farquar (although Rick Hahn has stated that if Farquar finds himself out of a job, he always can come back and be an ambassador or have a role with the team behind the scenes. Kudos to the White Sox for that classy gesture).
If you want to look at the projected arbitration deals for each player, you can do so here.
If not, that’s okay too. But if the White Sox do tender Abreu, Avi, Yolmer, Rodon, and Davidson like I think they will, then the payroll heading into 2019 would sit at roughly 55M, give or take a few million in either direction. Now this is where it gets interesting. The median payroll of each team for 2019 is expected to be around 130M, with the luxury tax number expected to be somewhere around 216M. That means that if the White Sox wanted to be just a middle of the pack team when it comes to payroll, they could still spend roughly 75M in free agency and still be nowhere near the luxury tax.
The Possibilities
For the sake of the rest of the article, let’s just use that 75M as a projected number that the Sox could (and should) spend this winter. This is why I truly think the White Sox have a shot at Manny Machado (if they still want him after his antics this past post season). They can offer him 30-35M a year and still have 40-45M left to fill out the rest of their roster. Hell, they could give Bryce Harper 40M if they want and then trade for 3rd base help from their surplus of outfield prospects. I talked about how Eugenio Suarez of the Cincinnati Reds could be an interesting trade option for 3rd base should the White Sox miss on Machado this year and then Arenado next year. You can read about that here as well.
And before the comments section floods with the “why would x player want to come play for the White Sox?” Well, why did Jon Lester sign with the Cubs when he did? They had just finished 17 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals and Darwin Barney was their no. 3 hitter. Why did Robinson Cano leave the New York Yankees to go to Seattle? Answer: because just like in any sport, and realy life in general, money talks.
Sure the Yankees are a more lucrative destination for free agents because of their storied history and already potent roster. What I’m trying to say is if Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, or even Patrick Corbin or Dallas Keuchel choose to sign elsewhere, it will not be because the White Sox were soft with their offers. That is a guarantee from me to you.
True the White Sox have never spent an absurd amount of money on one player before. But they have also never gone through a complete rebuild before. And they never made a blockbuster deal with the Cubs until last year either. There has been an obvious culture change on the South Side of Chicago, and if you can’t see that then I don’t know what to tell you.
Still don’t believe me? Here’s a quote from Rick Hahn himself from last year’s SoxFest when he was asked about spending big money in the future:
“Ultimately, competing for free agents and targeting big-ticket items and hopefully converting on them will be the next logical step when the time is right. Anyone who doubts that we will break from past perception or past process, I believe the evidence is there over the last year that those old standards are gone.”
This quote should show every White Sox fan out there that Hahn knows he has a job to do. And that should fire everyone up.
The Targets
Everything I have read and/or heard from the past year points to the White Sox making Manny Machado priority No. 1. They even tried to trade for him during last year’s Winter Meetings. Recently word has leaked that the White Sox already have a presentation set up for Machado that outlines how the White Sox are getting ready to win, and win often. Goosebumps. Lets go. Did his value drop after his comments and play this past off season? Honestly, probably not. Teams out there will still pay for his pure talent, which he has a ton of. But will he agree to play 3rd base for Chicago if they sign him? Who knows. But it would be a good problem to have.
But just because it sounds like Machado is the main guy, don’t be surprised to see the White Sox make a push for Harper as well. Even though this seems much more unlikely, it is the absolute dream scenario for the White Sox. A future outfield of Eloy, Robert,and Harper? That could potentially be the best in baseball. Then they can trade for more help from their surplus of outfield prospects, like I stated earlier. This would help them fill out any other holes on the roster. And they STILL wouldn’t be close to the luxury tax. The same can’t be said for other teams looking to go after him.
After the two biggest names comes the 2nd tier of guys by the likes of Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, Michael Brantley, Andrew Miller, A.J. Pollock, Marwin Gonzalez, Craig Kimbrel, and many others. Personally, I’m not paying top dollar for a reliever for the foreseeable future. We just watched how often top bullpen arms like Kimbrel crumbled in the playoffs. I’d rather have our young up and coming arms in the bullpen (Zack Burdi, Ian Hamilton, Tyler Johnston, etc) come up and help the team for a fraction of the cost. And Chicago could realistically sign one of the “Big 2” and still have enough money to throw a solid contract at Michael Brantley and maybe even Patrick Corbin.
Final Thoughts
I’m not going to make any predictions because this off season is going to be an absolute roller coaster ride with surprises around every corner. But make no mistake, the time is now for the White Sox. If there was ever a time to put all of their chips in the pot, this is it. So Sox fans, say your prayers and buckle up. This off season has the potential to be the turning point of the White Sox rebuild. And I can’t wait.
Lets go.
