Earlier this month, Baseball Prospectus dropped their annual PECOTA projects. The acronym “Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm” is considered one of the most accurate systems for predicting player data. It uses predicted depth charts to establish the projected runs for and against each team before gleaning a projected win total from that.

Much is made every year about these projections, some more accurate than others, as evident by their 95-win forecast for the South Siders before the 2022 season. 

This year’s projections peg the White Sox to finish third in the American Central League with a combined record of 79-83 and a winning percentage of .491. 

It is easy to see why. Marginal moves were made during the offseason, and injuries decimated the team’s core during the 2022 campaign. Eloy Jimenez, Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, Yasmani Grandal, and Yoan Moncada missed significant time due to injury. Jimenez missed 84 games, Anderson 89 games, Robert 98, Grandal 99 games, and Moncada for 104 games.

While the PECOTA projections and analytics provide a comprehensive, statistical case for why a rebounding to form is going to be unlikely heading into 2023, oddsmakers and gambling experts across the country give a remarkably different view. 

What can Vegas tell us about the White Sox’s Chances?

PECOTA standings have the White Sox finishing third in the American League Central with 79 wins. According to PECOTA, the White Sox’s chances of winning the division are at just 8.3 percent, while their odds of making the playoffs are at 18.9 percent. This stands in stark contrast to how Vegas evaluates division winner probability. 

The Cleveland Guardians have a 46.3 percent chance of winning the division, according to PECOTA. Vegas pegs their odds at +135. This, in turn, means that the implied probability of Vegas line setters is

set around 42.55 percent, a 3.8 percent reduction in likelihood altogether.

The trend of Vegas opposing PECOTA continues with the Minnesota Twins, who see an implied probability reduction of 16.9 percent, respectively. 

This is where Vegas throws a curveball for the White Sox. As mentioned, the PECOTA probability for the White Sox taking the division is 8.3 percent. Vegas has set the line at +200, indicating an implied probability of 33.3 percent, an increase of 25 percentage points. While oddsmakers price their lines based on concepts such as volume and hedging to squeeze out profits, the drastic difference of opinion may speak to knowledge outside of the statistics we are not privy to. Vegas is in the business of making money and pricing the White Sox tens of percentage points above expert statisticians, which indicates a clear difference of opinions between the two that has yet to be reconciled. 

What Can Vegas tell us about the AL Central?

Last year’s White Sox team struggled with staying on the field throughout the year and yet somehow managed to scrape through a win total of 81 wins. Despite starters coming back in

healthy form and the team considers itself to be in a window of contention. PECOTA’s reasoning is sound. The Sox lost their most productive pitcher, Johnny Cueto, and replaced him with a guy whose status is still up in the air, Mike Clevinger. 

They also lost their consistent hitter and locker room leader Jose Abreu. Relying on the team to stay healthy throughout the season when it has failed may be a recipe for disaster as the season goes on. Even with pieces coming back, this needs to account for the relatively lackluster moves the front office has made to keep up with the rest of the league. However, the divisional win predictions put forth by bookmakers over the last week may give some fans hope. 

The White Sox currently sit at an 83.5 win average by Vegas, with Detroit and Kansas at 68.5, respectively. Meanwhile, Cleveland comes in at 86.5 and Minnesota at 84.5. PECOTA has Clevland and Minnesota at 87 wins. 

This, in turn, means that oddsmakers expect Kansas City and Detroit to outperform their wins total along with the White Sox. The supposed heavy hitters in the division are expected to slightly underperform these win totals. 

Obviously, Vegas is setting lines to make money. PECOTA is trying to predict what will happen accurately. But it’s clear Vegas thinks the betting public will be higher on the White Sox than the computer projections are. Fans can at least find solace in the fact that a clear difference of opinion is forming in the expert sphere.