“He’s really bad right now. Horrible,” Manny Machado barked from the dugout in Spanish. With the Padres clinging to a one-run lead in Game 3 of the NLDS, and Dodgers reliever Michael Kopech on the mound, the six-time All-Star had a message for his teammate Jackson Merrill.
“Get ready for the fastball and hit it,” Machado said.
It’s a sentiment that many opponents have shared against Kopech this season. But it’s easier said than done. Back on July 7, the hard-throwing right-hander blew his fifth save of the season after Marlins third baseman Jake Burger tattooed a 99 mph fastball 431 feet for a walk-off home run. Of the 20 pitches Kopech threw that outing, 18 were four-seam fastballs.
A few days later, Kopech admitted to reporters that he was hesitant to embrace the White Sox’s game plan for him, which included throwing more breaking balls. After leaning into it on July 10th, he made headlines by throwing an immaculate inning against the Twins.
Kopech showed some flashes out of the White Sox bullpen but was often inconsistent. In 43 appearances with the White Sox, the 28-year-old posted a 4.74 ERA while converting on nine of his 14 save opportunities. He struck out 31 percent of hitters he faced, which ranked amongst the seventh best percentile in the MLB, but also had a walk rate at 12 percent, which ranked seventh worst. He limited opponents to a .212 expected batting average but also allowed a hard hit percentage over 40 percent, which is well below the league average.
A meager return in a three-team deal that sent Kopech to the Dodgers just before the trade deadline showed what the front office thought of him. Pennies on the dollar for a trade that also sent Erick Fedde and Tommy Pham to St. Louis. The White Sox spent five years waiting for Kopech to develop into the top pitching prospect they hoped he’d become when they first traded for him. Dysfunction and incompetence inside the organization helped prevent that from happening. The Dodgers had the right environment for him to thrive in. One with a winning culture, a stable clubhouse, and tools to help players succeed such as a competent scouting and analytics department.
Flash forward to October and Kopech’s uniform change has seemed to come with newfound confidence. The right-hander from Texas is pitching is throwing meaningful innings in meaningful games. Shortly after Machado told Jackson Merrill to “get ready for the fastball,” Kopech struck him out on a 99 mph fastball right down the heart of the plate.
While Kopech has tried to mix in some more offspeed pitches, the fastball remains his primary weapon. In 2024 he has used his four-seamer over 77 percent of the time in the regular season and postseason combined. Kopech appeared in the biggest game of his life on Friday, a do-or-die Game 5 of the NLDS. In front of a raucous home crowd, Dodgers’ manager Dave Roberts called on him in the top of the eighth inning to protect a 2-0 lead.
Kopech moved through the Padrs, firing a 1-2-3 inning, punctuated by striking out Jake Cronenworth on three straight fastballs. It marked his 10th hold in a Dodgers uniform. Kopech only needed nine pitches to make it through the inning, eight of them were four-seam fastballs. The final pitch he uncorked was clocked at 102 mph.
The stuff hasn’t changed since Kopech left the White Sox. The difference is, he is throwing his fastball with conviction. Almost everyone in the stadium knows what is coming but Kopech doesn’t care. He is reaching back and letting his fastball eat. The results speak for themselves. In 3.1 innings he has yet to allow a run, allowed just three baserunners, and struck out five.
After watching Cronenworth fan on his final pitch of Game 5, a fired-up Kopech turned and unleashed a primal scream. It was reminiscent of the look he had walking off the mound after striking out Rougned Odor during the 2021 Field of Dreams game, one of the first big games that Kopech had pitched in. Coincidentally it was also the last season he owned a strikeout rate over 30 percent and his highest fastball usage until the 2024 season.
