Jordan Guerrero had a very good season in 2017 with the Birmingham Barons. The White Sox rewarded the lefthander with an invitation to big-league camp this season and given his status as one of the few elite southpaws in the organization he has a strong chance of breaking camp with the big club.
But in order for this to become a reality, Guerrero has a lot to prove. The most recent top-30 White-Sox prospects ranking by MLBPipeline.com places Guerrero No. 21, one spot ahead of Ian Clarkin. He’s the highest ranked LHP in the organization and if scraping the major-league bargain bin of pitchers yields shallow results, Guerrero may find himself in a position of strength.
The most compelling case for Guerrero is his smattering of pitches and change of pace. As a southpaw, he offers a one-for-one replacement to Carlos Rodon while balancing the rotation. Several of the White Sox starters feature blistering fastballs and devastating off-speed pitches, but adding Guerrero to the mix could force other teams to adjust their approach.
This is not an easy decision for White Sox brass unless Guerrero falls apart this spring, and Aaron Bummer is the only alternative to promoting Guerrero two levels. Looking at the Triple-A roster doesn’t offer much promise, and unless a non-roster invitee like Hector Santiago (which is likely) claims the final rotation spot the improbable might become possible.
An honest evaluation places Guerrero at Triple-A to start the season. Even if he makes a compelling case for a major-league promotion, the White Sox will place him in Triple-A for two weeks to preserve service time. But the southpaw had a strong 2017 season and is earning a fair shake in 2018.
Guerrero’s record at Double-A was abysmal (7-12) and his earned run average was equally dreadful (4.18). But it appears he was a victim of his surroundings. When defense is removed from the ERA equation Guerrero posted a 2.91 FIP. And Guerrero has the propensity for keeping the ball in the ballpark while wiggling out of jams. The left-hander stranded 67.6 percent of baserunners, something he’s done with regularity throughout his professional career, and limited his HR/FB rate to 5.6 percent.
For fans that enjoy radar-gun readings and superhuman feats from the mound, Guerrero is not your guy. He grades out as a master of commanding the zone and forcing hitters into tough counts — think Greg Maddux, not Nolan Ryan. His best pitch is his changeup and as Danny Farquhar noted in a conversation with James Fegan of The Athletic, pitching is more about forcing hitters to swing at bad pitches than having the stuff to get out of tight spots. Of course, if you have both it’s a winning combination, but if you don’t have the stuff you have to summon your smarts.
It’s certainly a stretch to expect Guerrero to jump two levels into the big leagues, but anything is possible in Spring Training.
