Friday, September 13, 2024

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Grading The White Sox Lance Lynn And Joe Kelly Trade 

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The White Sox firesale continued on Friday afternoon as Rick Hahn traded Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly to the Los Angeles Dodgers for outfielder Trayce Thompson and pitching prospects Nick Nastrini and Jordan Leasure. 

Here is a look at all three players the White Sox got in return. 

Nick Nastrini

Nick Nastrini is the headliner in the return. He was ranked by MLB.com as the Dodger’s No. 10 prospect. FanGraphs had him ranked as high as 6th in the Dodgers system. He is already the White Sox No. 4 overall prospect according to MLB.com

The 23-year-old is currently in Double-A. In 17 starts he has a 4.03 ERA with 85 strikeouts in just 73.2 innings. Opponents are hitting .232 off of him but his WHIP sits at 1.40, which is the highest it’s ever been in his young professional career. 

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Nastrini was only a fourth-round pick but his electric stuff has shot him up the Dodgers prospect rankings.  In his first full season, he led the Dodgers farm system with 169 strikeouts, a 13.0 strikeout rate per nine innings, and a .180 opponent batting average.  It took him just one season to reach Double-A

On a 20-80 grading scale he has solid scouting grades. His fastball is his best pitch grading out as a 65.  In college, it sat between 92-94 mph but that jumped up to 96 mph upon reaching the Dodgers farm system. He tops out at 98 mph and scouts say his fastball has tremendous carry. 

His slider sits in the mid-80s and grades at 60. Scouts say it has a high spin rate but Nastrini has trouble controlling it at times. Meanwhile, his changeup was graded at a 55. It also sits in the mid-80s and has a good late movement, bottoming out before it reaches home plate.

Despite the quality pitch arsenal, Nastrini is only graded as a 50 overall. The biggest issue is his control. He posted a walk rate of 7.4 per nine innings at UCLA which is one of the reasons he lost his spot in the Golden Bears rotation after just five starts his freshman year. 

Nastrini does have a repeatable delivery so the White Sox are hoping they can hone in on his control issues. To Nastrini’s credit, he has steadily been improving since he turned pro. In his first full year in the Dodgers system, his walk rate went down to 4.2

Nastrin has the stuff to be an elite reliever and if he can further improve his control he projects to be a viable option in the White Sox rotation as soon as next season. 

Jordan Leasure

Jordan Leasure has an intimidating presence on the mound with a 6’3” 215 lb frame. His height gives him good extension which makes his fastball nearly unhittable for Double-A hitters. 

He currently comes in as the White Sox’s No.26 overall prospect. 

Leisure had an interesting road to reach the pro ranks. He spent five seasons at NCAA Division II Tampa. In 2019 he missed an entire season due to Tommy John surgery. Then in 2020, he lost most of the season due to the COVID pandemic. 

The 25-year-old was signed by the Dodgers for $125,000 in the 14th round in the 2021 draft. His fastball jumps off the page grading at an 80. 

After sitting in the low 90s in college the Dodgers helped his fastball velocity reach triple digits, averaging out around 98 mph. With his large stride and low release point, it looks like the ball is quickly rising on hitters which has helped him limit opponents to a .188 batting average in his three seasons in the Dodgers farm system. 

His slider is graded as a 55 but scouts say it is slowly improving. If he can utilize it more consistently it could develop into a plus wipeout pitch. Given his stuff he projects to be a late-inning relief option if he can reach the big leagues. 

His biggest barrier is control. But his numbers in the last three seasons have been solid. This season he has a 3.09 ERA in Double-A with 56 punchouts in 35 innings. Opponents are hitting just 169 off of him. Not too bad for a 26th-ranked prospect. 

He is projected to reach the MLB by 2024. 

Trayce Thompson

Trayce Thompson was a thrown-in part of the trade that doesn’t figure to have any impact on the White Sox’s immediate or long-term plans. 

Thompson was initially drafted by the White Sox in 2009. During his two years on the South Side, he slashed .206/.265/.375 with eight home runs and 25 RBIs in 92 games. 

Since then he has bounced around between the Dodgers, Athletics, Cubs, Padres, and then Dodgers again. He is a career .216 hitter with 44 home runs,  123 RBIs and a 98 OPS + in 333 games. 

His best season may have come last year when he hit a career-high .268 with 13 home runs in just 80 games. He went down with an oblique injury in July and hasn’t played since. There was little chance he was ever going to play for the Dodgers again before the trade. 

The Grade

Lance Lynn still has one year of team control and is just two years removed from being an AL Cy Young candidate. His stuff still plays. Just look at his 16-strikeout performance earlier this season for evidence. 

However, since returning from a knee injury Lynn’s margin for error has shrunk and his production has taken a nose dive. The amount of home runs he allows is very concerning. Meanwhile, Joe Kelly has shown flashes of brilliance at times but has been too inconsistent to be considered a reliable bullpen option. His 4.97 ERA and 1.31 WHIP don’t exactly scream lockdown late-inning option for a team that is trying to make a run at the World Series. 

Kelly has had some of his best seasons with the Dodgers and is battle-tested in the postseason. Like Lynn, a change of scenery may do him some good. This was a typical trade for the Dodgers. Their farm system is so deep that they gave up limited value for a moderate return. 

However, this is a win for the White Sox. They need all the depth in their farm system that they can get. It was going to be difficult for Rick Hahn to get anything of value for a starter with an ERA of 6.47 which is why he needed to be packaged with Kelly.

Trading the two gets money off the White Sox books and netted them two pitchers with plenty of upside who could be on the big league roster as soon as next season. Nastrini is the headliner but Leasure could be a diamond in the rough if the White Sox can further develop him. (That is a big IF, given their track record.) 

The Grade: B+

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KimberleyiDunn
KimberleyiDunn
Jul 29, 2023 5:31 pm

Lance Lynn still has one year of team control and is just two years removed from being an AL Cy Young candidate. His stuff still plays. Just look at his 16-strikeout performance earlier this season for evidence. 

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