Eloy Jimenez is already a household name among White Sox fans. In less than a year, the heralded outfield prospect has entered the big-league narrative with more force than any prospect in recent memory — perhaps even more than Michael Kopech. As if he was swinging Thor’s ax, Jimenez is hacking away at southern-league pitching with surgical precision.
He’s batting a clean .400 over his last 10 contests with four home runs and 14 runs batted in. Seven of his last 10 games have been multi-hit efforts and with an ISO over .300, Jimenez is rarely striking out for a power hitter. With only 17 games played (a small sample size) Jimenez is slashing .319/.347/.652. For his accomplishments, he was named Southern League Player of the Week.
Player of the Week @Lamantha21 led the SL in hits (13) and total bases (23), posting multiple hits in all six games for the @BhamBarons. He is the @whitesox no. 1 prospect. pic.twitter.com/Hupx9HVyMX
— The Southern League (@SLeagueBaseball) May 7, 2018
There is no question Jimenez is raking, but many of the calls to promote him after 17 games because he is not challenged are just silly. Many feel the same way about Kopech and his early dominance at Triple-A, but White Sox brass are observing these prospects through a different lens.
I’ve said it time and again, White Sox officials are waiting for this pair of prospects to fail. Kopech enduring a dismal outing on Sunday only finishing three frames while walking four. Jimenez’s story holds a different revelation.
Looking at Jimenez’s professional career, his statistics are lopsided. His highest ISO (an indication of his power) before joining the White Sox was .204 in 2016. Since joining the Sox he has not logged an ISO at any level below .206.
Sure, this is not significant, but when contrasted against his average ISO spread over two levels in the Sox farm-system it’s compelling: High-A: .336, Double-A: .333. Part of this power surge can be explained by age and development, but that offers support for the argument to pace his promotion. Jimenez is only 21 years old and his pop in ISO figures is a statistical outlier based on his four years in professional baseball.
Meanwhile, Jimenez is pairing his pop with patience. This, of course, is a positive but one that might raise caution with White Sox officials as well. He is punching out at a pace four points lower than what is expected, according to Fangraphs’ Steamer projections. Indeed, no one stakes their career on projections but given his eruption in power and sinking k-rate, there is a regression to the mean at some point soon.
Seventeen games is not a large sample size. Jimenez has only played a total of 35 games at Double-A and although he’s batting .336 with nine home runs and 26 RBI over that span, it only accounts for approximately 25 percent of a full season.
One of the developmental milestones players have to reach is prolonged failure. I’m not saying that anyone wants to see Jimenez or Kopech struggle, just that tempering our expectations as a fanbase might do everyone some good.
Odds are that if either of those two had already taken some lumps and demonstrated the wherewithal to handle such a skid, they would have been promoted already. Kopech went through a little bit of it on Sunday and Jimenez will endure his own regression at some point. And when he does the White Sox developmental literati will peer in even closer, applying a microscope to Jimenez routine.
This is how evaluation works. It is not a binary question of success or failure, but more akin to a shifting goal line that slides back and forth. Remember, minor league success does not equal major league achievement. I’m sure White Sox fans would rather see Jimenez and Kopech arrive well beyond ready rather than shoot up too soon and erode in the major league pressure cooker.
