Baseball is back and the free agency period is several days old, but the Chicago Cubs have not yet made a big splash in the free-agent waters (unless you count Andrelton Simmons and Jesse Chavez as big splashes). The Cubs, as currently structured, look to be a team on the outside looking in, as far as possible playoff teams go. Even with an expanded playoff field, the Cubs have work to do in filling out their roster to make a postseason run.
As things currently stand, let’s take a look at the Cubs’ roster and its best-case scenarios, as well as their doomsday outlooks.
Catcher
Best-Case Scenario
Two-time National League All-Star Willson Contreras (the Cubs’ longest-tenured player) and newly-acquired backup Catcher, Yan Gomes, form the best catching duo in baseball. Gomes, a 2018 All-Star while with the Cleveland Indians, signed a two-year contract over the winter for $13 million. Gomes provides innings behind the plate while Contreras stays in the lineup as a part-time Designated Hitter, keeping him fresh for 162 games. In this best-case scenario, the Cubs extend Willson Contreras’ contract, making him a Cub for life.
Worst-Case Scenario
Contreras’ 2021 struggles (career-worst .237 batting average; career-worst 28.6 strikeout percentage) bleed over into 2022, and the Cubs deal the pending free agent before the July 31 trade deadline. Contreras becomes the final member of the “Core Four” (Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Javier Baez) to be dealt away to a contender.
First Base
Best-Case Scenario
Frank Schwindel stays hot and proves that 2021 was not a fluke. Schwindel, who hit .342, clubbed 13 home runs and had a slugging percentage north of .600 in 2021, helps solidify a position that has been a strength of the Cubs for many years, and holds off the crowds with pitchforks demanding an Anthony Rizzo Cubs reunion in 2022.
Worst-Case Scenario
The exact opposite happens. Schwindel comes out as cold as Chicago’s weather in early April and can not be counted on for everyday production. He becomes nothing more than a AAAA player (too good for AAA, but not MLB-ready). With no other first baseman on the roster at the moment, the Cubs would be doomed here.
Second Base
Best-Case Scenario
Nick Madrigal, acquired by the Cubs in last summer’s Craig Kimbrel trade, becomes a standout table-setter near the top of the Cubs lineup and puts the baseball in play. While that may sound simple and perhaps boring, it is needed for a Cubs team that led baseball in strikeouts in 2021. Madrigal’s track record suggests he will not strike out often (3% strikeout rate in the minor leagues), which helps the Cubs move towards a more balanced everyday lineup.
Worst-Case Scenario
History repeats itself, and Madrigal suffers another injury. Madrigal’s 2021 season with the White Sox ended after just 200 at-bats due to a significant hamstring injury. While healthy, he’s a strong candidate to hit .300, but an injury here would be a crushing blow to the Cubs.
Short Stop
Best-Case Scenario
Four-time Gold Glove winner Andrelton Simmons turns back the clock and shows he is still one of baseball’s best defenders at a key position. At 32-years-old, Simmons shows he has not lost a step and helps the Cubs’ groundball-heavy starting pitching staff keep men off the bases.
Worst-Case Scenario
Simmons’ bat is a major problem, and Manager David Ross needs to form a platoon with Nico Hoerner. In 2021, Simmons’ .558 On-Base Plus Slugging (OPS) percentage was the worst in baseball, among players with 450+ at-bats. Javier Baez, he is not.
Third Base
Best-Case Scenario
Patrick Wisdom shows the power from last year (28 home runs) is real and he cuts down on a dreadful 40.8 strikeout percentage, which was baseball’s worst among players with 350+ at-bats. He becomes a near-every day player at third for the Cubs.
Worst-Case Scenario
The strikeouts force Wisdom to the bench as a part-time player. 28 home runs and slugging percentages of .500+ are great, but the Cubs need to change their lineup’s profile with more contact-focused hitting. The search for Kris Bryant’s heir apparent continues.
Outfield
Best-Case Scenario
The Cubs catch lightning in a bottle in Clint Frazier, as the former No. 5 overall pick in the MLB June Amateur draft flourishes on the north side. Beside him, Ian Happ makes his first All-Star team after he carries over a strong second half of the 2021 season. Rafael Ortega hits double-digit home runs again while stealing double-digit bases playing nearly every day. And remember Jason Heyward? He’s still just 32, and though he may have lost some of his other-worldly athletic ability, he wins his sixth Gold Glove as the teams’ everyday right fielder. The Cubs use the DH spot well and get these four in the lineup every day.
Worst-Case Scenario
Frazier doesn’t cash in on a new opportunity and proves to be nothing more than a fifth outfielder, solely used as a depth piece. Happ forgets his ’21 second-half resurgence and hits like he did in the first half of ’21 (.183 Batting Average, .330 Slugging Percentage, .626 OPS). Ortega fails to hit .291 again, and hits below .240, while Heyward begins to feel Father Time breathing down his neck. With two more years on his contract at $20+ million per year, the Cubs are unable to find a trade partner for the veteran, former All-Star.
Starting Pitching
Best-Case Scenario
The starting rotation becomes the teams’ strength in 2022. Kyle Hendricks makes his first All-Star team and receives votes for the Cy Young Award. Ditto for Marcus Stroman, who leads the team in starts, innings, and produces another Earned Run Average (ERA) in the low-3.00’s. Wade Miley, claimed off waivers from the Cincinnati Reds, establishes himself as a third dependable starter, giving the Cubs different looks from the Nos. 1, 2, and 3 spots in the rotation. The No. 4 spot is filled admirably by Alec Mills, and Justin Steele (4.26 ERA in 2021) makes 25 starts as the team’s fifth starter.
Worst-Case Scenario
Hendricks and Stroman do their best to keep the rotation afloat, but Miley struggles, and Mills and Steele are in and out of the rotation. Mills’ 5.07 ERA from 2021 follows him to 2022, and Steele walks too many batters (4.26 BB/9 in 2021). Adbert Alzolay, who will begin the season on the injured list, battles elbow and shoulder tightness throughout 2022 and makes less than 10 starts. Keegan Thompson (3.38 ERA in 32 games in 2021) impresses, but not enough to be considered a lock for a 2023 rotation job. In this worst-case scenario, the Cubs trade Hendricks to a contending team by July for a package of prospects.
Bullpen
Best-Case Scenario
Rowan Wick takes the closer job and never relinquishes it. Keegan Thompson finds a niche in the Cubs’ bullpen and brings his mid-90s fastball to overwhelm opposing hitters as a key 8th-inning setup man. Scott Effross (3.68 ERA in 14 games) helps add depth to the bullpen. The Cubs may need another player or two to step up here, as this is a bullpen lacking in experience and talent at the moment.
Worst-Case Scenario
A total disaster. David Ross plays musical chairs for 162 games and the Cubs consistently shuffle players to-and-from the minor leagues in an effort to find something, anything. Any chance at playoff contention is wiped away by blown leads which demoralize the team. The recent loss of Codi Heuer to Tommy John surgery proves to haunt the Cubs.
Opening Day is less than four weeks away, and there is likely more roster-churning on the way. If you’re a Cubs fan, you are certainly hoping for as many best-case scenarios to come true and hoping to minimize the worst-case options. The Cubs look at-or-above average in some areas of the diamond, but other areas (ahem, the bullpen) need some serious reconfiguration.
We will soon see what is in store for the Cubs, beginning April 7 at Wrigley Field.
