Major League Baseball offers many different ways to bet on the game. Totals, outright winners, run line spreads, pitcher strikeouts, player hits, there is a ton of choices for any game. With so many opportunities, it can be difficult to make profitable choices. This article aims to show some profitable trends for the 2022 season.
Wrigley Field Totals
As any fan knows, the conditions at Wrigley Field often decide what type of game is played. If the wind is blowing out the score could resemble a football score while if the wind is blowing in, it looks more like a soccer score. So, let’s look at the last six seasons (2016-2021) and try to find a trend.
Since 2016, the result was under 53.8% of the time (233-200-19). This is not a guarantee that games at Wrigley always go under though. In 2017, the over went 45-38-3 (54.2%), and last year the over went 42-34-5 (55.3%).
If you were to build a model disregarding last year, the expectation would be that under hits even more than it has historically. The books in Vegas have also noticed these trends, last year lowering totals and capitalizing on people chasing that historical trend data. The larger factor in Wrigley Field totals is simply whether the wind is blowing in or out.
According to an Action Network article, when the wind is blowing in the under is 99-69-12 (58.9%). When the wind is blowing out, the over is 77-44-4 (63.6%). It seems intuitive but checking the weather forecast before the game could be one of the more profitable moves this year. DailyBaseballData is one good source but there are many similar sites out there.
Strikeout Totals (Hitters)
Last year, the Cubs averaged the most strikeouts per game at 9.85. The league average for K% is about 20 and Patrick Wisdom, Ian Happ, and Willson Contreras are all projected to have a K% over 26. However, with the addition of Nick Madrigal who has a career K% of under 7.5%, this number should drop significantly.
Other players like Clint Frazier and Michael Hermosillo have projections in the 28% range, beating those projections could have Chicago returning to the neighborhood of 8.5 strikeouts a game. Since 2016, they have averaged 8.33. Middle infielders Madrigal, Andrelton Simmons, and Nico Hoerner all are projected to strike out under 15% of the time.
The other factor to consider is obviously who is pitching to them! With 76 of their games played in the NL Central, it’s important to look at the pitching they face. I have used season strikeout and innings pitched projections to create a “Strikeout per start” stat. The highest of those were Corbin Burnes (7.6), Freddy Peralta (7.1), Brandon Woodruff (6.6), and Luis Castillo (6.1). Three of those pitchers are on Milwaukee, who also boasts the best bullpen in the division.
Strikeout Totals (Pitchers)
With Marcus Stroman, Wade Miley, and Drew Smyly being added to the rotation, there are some new Cubs faces to get familiar with. However, none of them is your stereotypical “strikeout pitcher”. Smyly has the highest K/9 and in turn highest K/Start, but it was still only 5.45. Stroman’s is at 4.7 and the next highest is Hendricks, with a 4.3.
Kyle has the largest Innings per start projection which could help him get to the over sometimes, but I would avoid Cubs’ pitching props for a little bit. After April and May when pre-season projections are swapped out for early season stats, we will have more information to make our bets.
NL Central Trends
With the Cubs being disappointing last year, it is not surprising that they struggled in divisional games. Last year they went 34-42 (44.7%) against the spread against the NL Central. The totals were a coin flip last year, with overs going 36-37-3 (49.3%).
At the macro level, it is tough to spot a profitable trend for the NL Central. Coupling things like strikeout percentages, windy conditions, and the starting pitcher/bullpen situation gives a bettor an improved chance of beating the books.
