Experts Believe Cody Bellinger Will Make Shocking Decision

We’ve heard rumblings that Cody Bellinger will decide to opt out of the remaining two years of his contract with the Cubs and while we won’t know for sure for another a few days experts continue to believe that the left-handed hitter will indeed make the shocking decision.

Bellinger, 29, has $52.5 million left on his original three-year deal with the Cubs that runs through the 2026 season. Although his 2024 season wasn’t a disaster, Bellinger did take a step back following his resurgence in 2023 and for that reason the overwhelming view of his decision seemed to be that he wouldn’t opt out. Here’s the math, if Bellinger stays with the Cubs to begin the 2025 season and then opt outs following the season, then he’d earn $30 million next year.

It’s a stretch to think any team would sign Bellinger to a contract with an AAV of $30 million this offseason. However, Cubs beat reporters for The Athletic Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney recently discussed the team’s options in free agency and how Bellinger’s decision obviously impacts how much money they’ll spend. Here’s what Sharma said on their podcast North Side Territory.

“Yeah, we’ve talked about this a lot, the general expectation, the general feel is that Cody Bellinger opts out, right, and if that happens they’re going to have close to $90 million off the books. What their budget is is never clear at this point in time, but it probably doesn’t change drastically from what it was last year as far as what they pay on the field talent.”

That’s not all though, as Cubs beat reporter for MLB.com Jordan Bastian also wrote the following when looking ahead to the offseason.

Via Cubs.com.

“Cody Bellinger has the ability to opt out of his three-year, $80 million deal this winter. He has a $27.5 million player option (or $2.5 million buyout) for 2025, and then another option ($25 million or $5 million buyout) for ‘26. While nothing is set in stone, the general belief is that Bellinger will opt out and hit the free-agent market again this winter. “

Bellinger has by Nov. 4, to officially make his decision on whether he’ll opt back in with the Cubs or opt out and immediately become a free agent.

(Previous Update)

The Cubs are waiting for Cody Bellinger’s opt-out decision ahead of free agency this offseason, which is shaping up to be the most important one of Jed Hoyer’s tenure as team president. Bellinger, who signed a three-year deal worth $80 million heading into the 2024 season, is reportedly leaning toward opting out and testing free agency.

According to Jacob Zanolla of Ivy League Cubs, Bellinger is indeed looking to cash in on a new free agent contract this winter by opting out of the final two years of his contract with the Cubs. At least, that’s what sources are indicating to Zanolla.

Via Ivy League Cubs.

Several sources have indicated to Ivy League Cubs that Cody Bellinger is leaning towards opting out of his current contract with the Chicago Cubs, and testing free agency this winter. Nothing is set in stone, and Scott Boras can change his mind at any time, but the signs are pointing towards what is the right choice for the team and the player. 

The left-handed hitter was seeking to capitalize in free agency following an impressive 2023 season in which Bellinger posted his best year at the plate since winning National League MVP with the Dodgers in 2019. Unfortunately for the outfielder/first baseman the market simply did not work in his favor and ultimately the Cubs were his only fit, re-signing in late February. However, Bellinger, like he did with his prove-it deal after 2022, once again worked out a contract that included opt-outs in hopes of eventually signing a longer agreement.

Bellinger’s 2024 season, while not a bust, was certainly not what he nor the Cubs envisioned, as Bellinger slashed .266/.325/.426, with 18 home runs and a 109 wRC+ in 130 games. After getting paid $27.5 million (+$2.5 million buyout) in 2024, Bellinger has to decide, along with his agent Scott Boras, whether or not he can beat the $52.5 million that he’s still owed by the Cubs in the next two years.

On the surface it might seem crazy to believe that Bellinger would opt-out after his regression this past season, but a peek at this winter’s free agent list shows that the 29-year-old can still be one of the better players available to sign.

Before we get to that list of free agents, the biggest advantage Bellinger will have this offseason compared to his last free agent journey, is that a qualifying offer will not be attached to him this time around. A player can only be extended a QO once in their careers and the Cubs did that last year for Bellinger, who in turned rejected the one-year guaranteed deal. A team who signs a free agent who has rejected a QO will give up a draft pick to the team who initially extended the qualifying offer to said player.

Now, teams don’t have to worry about losing a draft pick if they sign Bellinger.

Here are some of the top outfield free agents besides Juan Soto.

Anthony Santander
Teoscar Hernandez
Jurickson Profar
Tyler O’Neill

While Bellinger isn’t considered a top defensive center fielder, he at least does provide plenty of experience at the position with at least above average play, something none of those four other free agent outfielders can equal. You also have to factor in that Bellinger has a pretty good glove at first base.

National MLB reporter Jon Heyman recently said he would not be shocked if Bellinger did opt-out.

Why would this be advantageous for the Cubs? Well, while Bellinger is a fine player, the Cubs need to generate more power in their lineup and with Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch establishing themselves as every-day players in center field and first base, respectively, it gets difficult to see the team squeezing in another top hitter with Bellinger still on the roster.

If Bellinger does end up deciding to test free agency this offseason, then all of a sudden the Cubs have newly opened funds to address their lineup needs.

Bellinger must decide whether he will opt in or out of his Cubs deal within five days of the conclusion of the World Series. He’ll be 30-years-old next summer and although he has guaranteed money lined up, I could definitely see Bellinger wanting a longer contract locked up sooner than later, even if it’s at a lower average annual value than he currently has with the Cubs.