I guess what made this free agent rumor, report or whatever you want to characterize it as is that when discussing Walker Buehler’s potential suitors in free agency Jon Morosi only mentioned two teams by name and one of them was the Chicago Cubs. The 2x World Series champ with the Los Angeles Dodgers is in the mid-tier of free agent starting pitchers, which the Cubs are reportedly going to focus on once again this offseason.
Morosi was on MLB Network Friday morning to give his latest insight on a trio of free agents and while talking about Buehler he mainly discussed the Atlanta Braves as an interested team. Yet, the Cubs did get the only other mention from Morosi in regards to the two-time All-Star.
Here’s the clip from MLB Network. The Buehler talk begins at 1:04.
Willy Adames. Walker Buehler. Christian Walker.@jonmorosi provides some updates on the outlook of three highly-coveted free agents this offseason! pic.twitter.com/ytVNRd5Fji
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) November 15, 2024
Buehler, 30, had a rough 2024 season to the tune of a 5.38 ERA in 16 starts. That was his first MLB action since the 2022 season, missing half of that year and all of 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery as well as flexor tendon repair. The righty didn’t return to the Dodgers until May 6, 2024, and was limited to 75.1 innings.
It wasn’t good for Buehler and he struggled in his first postseason start against the San Diego Padres, allowing six runs in five innings in the NLDS. But then, something clicked and all of a sudden Buehler was back to his All-Star form. The right-hander proceeded to toss 10 shutout innings in his next three playoff outings, allowing just five hits, while striking out 13 and walking four. That included closing out the deciding Game 5 of the World Series against the New York Yankees.
I know some fans will look at his 2024 numbers and roll their eyes, and automatically think the Cubs are being cheap, but I’d love Buehler in the Cubs rotation next year.
Sure, call it a reclamation project, but his 2024 season was Buehler’s first year back since having Tommy John surgery. From 2018-2022, Buehler posted a 2.95 ERA in 629 innings. In his last full year on the mound, Buehler had a 2.47 ERA in 207.2 innings, striking out 212 batters in 33 starts and finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting.
I’ll trust that 600+ inning sample size over 75 innings when coming back from surgery. We’re not talking about a guy who has only had glimpses of success or maybe half a good year or one standout season. Buehler was legit and had established himself as one of the best pitchers in the National League.
Plus, the risk wouldn’t be high for the Cubs either. Right now Buehler is only projected to sign a one-year contract, possibly two years as he tries to re-establish his value. We’re pretty much looking at a similar situation as Cody Bellinger’s first free agency, when the Cubs signed him to a one-year contract that included a mutual option for the second year.
Walker Buehler Contract Projections
ESPN: 3 years, $54M
MLBTR: 1 year, $15M
FanGraphs: 2 years, $30M
The Athletic (Britton): 2 years, $32M
The Athletic (Bowden): 1 year, $10M + incentives
But as others have written, the Cubs adding Buehler to their starting rotation in 2025 is a good move, but if he’s the major acquisition, then we’re once again looking at a roster that is depending way too much on catching all the breaks to have success.
The focus is on pitching this offseason and with potential question marks surrounding a few of the younger pitchers in the organization, it is imperative that the front office adds not just one, but two high quality starters.
If Buehler is signed by the Cubs, please, please, do not sour our optimism for him by not bringing in another good starting pitcher.
