We all might be wasting our time, hoping that the Cubs actually have a shot at signing upcoming Japanese free agent Roki Sasaki, but insiders continue to mention them among the pitcher’s expected suitors, so here we are.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan released his offseason preview on Tuesday and one of the top storylines that will play out during the next couple months is where will Sasaki sign? While the general sense is that he’s already a Dodger, Passan is attempting to give other fans a glimmer of hope. That includes the Cubs, who are listed among the teams that are expected to make a pitch to Sasaki.
Via ESPN.
All the expected teams will do their best sales jobs: the Dodgers, Padres, Blue Jays, Cubs, Mets, Yankees, Rangers and even the Rays. Sasaki has not said what he values in a team, which leaves them guessing — and hoping. Because with his 100 mph fastball and perhaps the best splitter in the world, Sasaki has everything he needs to become the game’s best pitcher.
As a quick reminder, Sasaki will be treated like an international free agent, meaning MLB teams can only use money from the pre-determined IFA pool. The highest the right-handed pitcher could earn this offseason is receiving a signing bonus of $12,088,800, which can only come from eight teams.
Even that amount is unlikely as teams already have commitments to other international players.
I guess that’s the major point when discussing Sasaki’s free agency because it does not appear that money is his top priority. If it was, then he simply would have waited a few more years to cash in on what probably would be the new record-breaking contract for a pitcher, which Yoshinobu Yamamoto set last offseason.
So, if we do buy into Sasaki not already wanting to go to the Dodgers, we’ll see how effective the Cubs’ sales pitch will be for the Japanese phenom.
(Previous Update)
One of the most talked about players at this week’s GM Meetings isn’t even a free agent yet and there’s no guarantee that he’ll even be available this offseason, but teams are eagerly waiting to see if Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki will be posted by his NPB club. If he is, then the Cubs should be in the mix to sign the game-changing pitcher according to industry sources.
The Athletic wrote about Sasaki’s unique situation as the 23-year-old is eyeing a contract with an MLB team and he wants it before the usual posting timeline that has already been agreed upon by both leagues. Sasaki’s current team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, are hoping that their stud starting pitching won’t become a free agent this offseason and as most things in life it goes back to money.
Via The Athletic.
Given Sasaki’s age, he would only be eligible to sign a minor-league contract under MLB’s posting rules. That potential deal would be funded through international bonus pool money. Every club’s current allotment is less than $8 million.
If Sasaki were to be posted this offseason, he’d be looking at a bonus similar to what Shohei Ohtani received when he faced the same limitations. In 2017, Ohtani chose the Los Angeles Angels after a fierce recruiting battle, signing for $2.3 million, a fraction of his eventual production and the value he generated for the West Coast franchise.
The differences between major- and minor-league contracts — and being 23 or 25 in these cases — are enormous.
Last year, the Los Angeles Dodgers signed 25-year-old starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a $325 million contract. With that came an additional cost of $50.6 million from the Dodgers to Yamamoto’s NPB team as a posting fee. So yeah, the Chiba Lotte Marines obviously want Sasaki to wait until 2026 to get that giant posting fee. Meanwhile, Sasaki wants to pitch in MLB as soon as possible.
While the Dodgers remain the favorite to acquire Sasaki, whenever he does become available, the Cubs are mentioned with a few other teams who are viewed as suitors fro the right-handed pitcher.
Still, the prevailing thought in the industry is that the Dodgers loom as the favorite. Sasaki’s exact preferences, though, are not yet known. The New York Mets and Chicago Cubs are among the teams that have heavily scouted him. On Wednesday, Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said he traveled to Japan in September to watch Sasaki pitch as a way of expressing a level of interest and respect. And Stearns certainly isn’t the only powerful executive who made that gesture.
The New York Yankees and San Diego Padres are also among the groups that have extensively scouted and signed players from Asia in recent years. And teams would presumably get a chance to make their presentations to Sasaki, trying to sell him on a vision.
In recent years the Cubs have signed Japanese free agents Seiya Suzuki and Shōta Imanaga, while Yu Darvish has even helped in recruiting, offering a strong endorsement of the Cubs even after he was traded to the San Diego Padres.
Also, remember that the Cubs ended up being a finalist for Shohei Ohtani when he first came over to MLB in 2017. If Sasaki does get posted this offseason, then expect the Cubs to be in the mix and have a shot even if the Dodgers are viewed as the overwhelming favorite to sign him.
Roki Sasaki struck out nine over eight scoreless innings in Game 1 against the Fighters. pic.twitter.com/O5IsZYR5sB
— Jason Coskrey (@JCoskrey) October 12, 2024
Sasaki posted a 2.35 ERA in 111 innings pitched during the 2024 season. He struck out 129 batters, allowed a pair of home runs and recorded a 1.04 WHIP in 18 starts. The righty has a career 2.10 ERA in 394.2 innings in Japan.
With a 100 mph fastball and a devastating splitter, Sasaki profiles as a potential top-of-the-rotation starter. “He reminds me of Jacob deGrom,” one industry source said. “He’d develop into a No. 1.”
“If he was someone in the amateur draft,” one high-ranking executive said, “he’d easily be a top-five draft pick, probably better.”
Fans will find out by Dec. 15, at the very latest if Sasaki gets posted or not. That’s the final date the NPB sets for any player who is posted by their club in Japan. From then, the player has a 45-day negotiating window to sign with an MLB team.
