A Free Agent Prediction the Cubs Should Be All Over

There are actually two free agent contract predictions that I think the Cubs should be all over, but one is probably more likely because you know, money. However, even the Blake Snell projection fits right into Jed Hoyer’s wheelhouse. However, let’s begin with some reliever help.

Over at The Athletic, everyone’s least favorite former baseball executive and current analyst Jim Bowden put together a list of the top-45 free agents this offseason, offering contract predictions, comps and best fits for each player. A quick note on Cody Bellinger, Bowden does believe the Cubs outfielder/first baseman will opt-out and predicts that Bellinger will end up signing a four-year, $112 million deal.

We’ve already seen a report saying Bellinger is leaning toward opting-out and while I do think he will in order to secure a bigger and longer guaranteed contract in free agency, I can’t envision a team giving Bellinger close to $30 million a year.

Anyway, the 45th ranked free agent in Bowden’s list is right-handed reliever Clay Holmes and the Cubs should jump at the opportunity to sign him if his contract is anywhere near where the insider predicts.

Via The Athletic.

Clay Holmes appeared in more than 60 games for the third consecutive season, posting 30 saves before losing the closer job in August to Luke Weaver. However, he rebounded near the end of the season and performed well in high-leverage spots in the sixth, seventh and eighth innings. He allowed only one run in his final eight appearances of the regular season and finished with a 3.14 ERA.

Contract prediction: 2 years, $18.5 million

The small sample size of a postseason can really distort the perception of any player, especially pitchers and specifically relievers. I mean, one or two bad outings in October as a high-leverage relief pitcher and you’re more likely than not to be labeled as a choke artist.

Holmes, did lose his closer role with the Yankees and in his last two playoff appearances against the Cleveland Guardians the righty allowed three earned runs in one combined inning of work. That included the walk-off home run by David Fry in Game 3 of the ALCS.

Those moments will obviously stick in the minds of fans and executives, but how about Holmes in his first six postseason appearances, when he pitched 6.2 scoreless innings, allowing a total of five hitters to reach base?

Hey, if Holmes wants to give up another homer in a big spot to the Dodgers in the World Series, then it wouldn’t be the end of the world if you’re not a Yankees fan. But the perception that Holmes is bad or something to that effect could escalate once he reaches free agency and that’s when Jed Hoyer swoops in to sign a really good reliever at a “reasonable” price.

I know people are going to puke when they see that Holmes was tagged with 13 blown saves in 2024, but it’s not like he’s getting crushed out there. The righty only gave up 4 home runs in 63 innings this year, while holding batters to 2 home runs in 2022 and 2023 in the same amount of innings. All the while, Holmes has maintained a strikeout rate of 25.7% in the last three years with 74 saves under his belt.

We know that relievers can be fickle from year-to-year, but if the Cubs can sign Holmes to a two-year deal at or just below $10 million per year, then that seems like a good gamble for a guy who has been pitching high-leverage innings on a big stage for years.

Finally, Bowden predicts that Blake Snell will sign a three-year deal worth $105 million. The short deal projection is based on Bowden’s notion that teams simply won’t feel comfortable offering Snell a longer contract because of his history of injuries. There’s no doubt that the lefty is great when healthy, but Snell has only surpassed 130 innings twice in his career, 2018 and 2023, when he won the Cy Young each time.

In 2024, Snell was limited to 20 starts, missing time with two separate injuries, but when he was on the mound the lefty was good. Snell had a 3.12 ERA with a staggering 145 strikeouts in 104 innings for the Giants.

A short-term, high AAV contract? Yeah, that seems right up Hoyer’s alley. However, just as we’ve talked about with Bellinger, he and Snell should have better offers this time around in free agency simply because they won’t have a qualifying offer attached to them.

You can read all of Bowden’s free agent predictions here.