More Cubs Prop Bets
All right, so the first five are all bets I feel really good about, but there are a whole bunch more you can pick from. These, I don’t have a strong gage on which side to choose for the most part.
Jason Heyward o/u .259 batting average
I mean, I hope it’s over .259, but it’s not like Jason Heyward has been a high average hitter during his career and he’s coming off one of the worst seasons imaginable. That being said, if I had to pick, it’d be over. There’s just no way Heyward can be as bad as he was last year. Right? Yeah. I think. Maybe.
Kris Bryant
36.5 Home Runs
109.5 Runs Scored
.290 Batting Average
105.5 RBIs
I think I feel most confident in over .290 batting average. Kris Bryant has been working on hitting the ball to right field more often this offseason. That was essentially his lone flaw during his 2016 MVP campaign. So, after hitting .292 last season, I think he makes more contact and gets close to .300. That in turn could make his home run total go down from 39. Not by a lot, but it’s hard hitting 40 home runs in a season during this era. I don’t doubt for a second that Bryant can eclipse the 36.5 home run mark, but it’s not a sure thing in my mind. Also, safe bets to take the over on runs scored.
Now, let’s get into some over/under prop bets for pitchers.
Wade Davis o/u 38.5 Saves
Under? The Cubs are going to blowout a lot of teams just like they did last year, so I don’t see a lot of save opportunities for Wade Davis. Aroldis Chapman and Hector Rondon combined for 34 saves in 2016. Plus, factor in that Davis is coming off some arm issues and there’s at least a little fear that he could breakdown during the season. Even if he doesn’t, Davis could have a great year and still not get more than 38 saves. He’s been the best reliever over the past three years, but 2016 was his first season as the outright closer for the Royals.
John Lackey o/u 12 Wins
Yes, the win stat for pitchers doesn’t measure how good that pitcher is, but it can still help you make money. I’d take the under here because at 38-years-old, Lackey might be running out of gas. He missed time near the end of 2016, and wasn’t good in the postseason. He won 11 games out of his 29 starts, but despite how great I think the Cubs offense will be, I also see Lackey exiting games earlier. That leaves more time for the bullpen to potentially give up a lead, or simply means Lackey’s been hit pretty good. That being said, it could be over because the Cubs offense will be bonkers and all Lackey will need is five innings to qualify for the victory even if he didn’t pitch well.
Jon Lester
3.05 ERA
199.5 Strikeouts
15.5 Wins
Jake Arrieta
2.99 ERA
210.5 Strikeouts
16.5 Wins
Kyle Hendricks
2.89 ERA
14.5 Wins
I have no clue how Jake Arrieta will pitch in 2017, which is kind of scary. If he pitches like he did last year that’s more than fine for the Cubs because no one can expect his ridiculous Cy Young season again. Yet, what if he continues to regress and he can’t duplicate his arm release and has more control problems? We’re talking about more pitches thrown and less innings. As someone on Twitter mentioned the other day, it could be a terrible flashback to Rich Harden. No gage on Arrieta. I hope he’s great and he’ll still have a low batting average against because he has great stuff, but I just don’t know if his command will be great all year long.
It’ll be interesting to see how Jon Lester pairs up with Willson Contreras. I don’t think it’ll be a problem, but it could take some time to adjust. Anyway, for no reason other than Lester is a killer on the mound, I’d take the under 3.05 ERA. He’s so good working the edges and knows what he has to do to get guys out even if he’s not throwing as hard as other pitchers.
Also, take the over on wins for Kyle Hendricks. He showed a lot during the postseason and yes although Joe Maddon pulled him early in Game 7 of the World Series, I think the manager will give Hendricks a longer leash starting this year. The Cubs are going to win a lot of games, so 15 for Hendricks, going up against four or five starters is a good bet.
That was fun, but if you haven’t had enough check out the odds for Cubs players winning awards.
