Marvin Bagley III, an 18-year-old freshman big man at Duke, has been a consensus top 5 draft prospect ever since he re-classified last summer.
Some outlets have him listed as THE top prospect, and he’s apparently at the top of the Bulls wish list.
He isn’t the most prototypical top-five prospect, but he’s exciting nonetheless.
The reason I say he isn’t “prototypical” is that he’s sort of positionless. He isn’t a space eating, rim-protecting defender, which is what NBA teams prefer their centers to be. He isn’t a prolific 3-point shooter (yet), which may make teams reluctant to draft him as a power forward.
Duke's Marvin Bagley III is an elite talent, but legitimate questions persist. Here's why he might NOT succeed at the next level: https://t.co/U9kR5c5JSy #Duke #NBADraft
— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) February 22, 2018
However, he has shown abilities on both sides of the floor that could, and quite frankly should, overshadow his weaknesses.
At 6’11, 235 pounds with a 7’0 wingspan, Bagley possesses elite athleticism, as evidenced in the videos above. He routinely overpowers, out runs and out jumps his opponents. As this season has gone on, his skills have started catching up with his athletic abilities.
In ACC play, Bagley is averaging 20.1 points on 59 percent shooting, 11.9 rebounds (4.1 offensive boards!), over a block and a steal a game with a 95.1 Defensive Rating. Those numbers were good enough to win him ACC player of the year.
He’s only attempted 50 three’s this season, but he’s made 18 of them, good for 36 percent. That’s a small sample size and obviously, the college 3-point line is shorter than the NBA line, but that’s still a noticeable improvement from his high school days when he shot under 30 percent from three for his career. It’s especially impressive considering the leap in competition level from high school to the ACC, which shows that his improved percentage is more likely due to a revamped shooting stroke than just a stroke of luck.
Will he ever be a dead-eye shooter? Probably not. But if he could consistently knock down the corner pocket three, and/or become a legitimate pick-and-pop threat, he could explode offensively. Especially if he landed on a team like the Bulls who already have a big that can stretch the floor with the best of ’em.
There have been a lot of comparisons to Chris Bosh, except those comparisons are usually followed by the phrase “except he can’t shoot.” Chris Bosh didn’t shoot more than 74 three’s in a season until his tenth season. He shot just 33.5 percent from three over his career. It’s not a given, but Bagley could become a better shooter than Bosh ever was, and at an earlier age.
Where Bosh and Bagley are the most similar to me is in their defensive styles, which is very intriguing. Bosh was never a prototypical rim protector, but he was a starting center for two championship teams, posting the 2nd and 3rd best defensive ratings of his career.
Bosh would get bullied in the paint by bigger centers, even mediocre ones like Roy Hibbert. But you can live with that with how few post up bigs are currently relevant. Bosh was able to use his top-notch quickness and athleticism to guard sideline to sideline, jump passing lanes and block/alter shots in the paint.
With Bagley’s quickness, burst and leaping ability, he should be able to do everything Bosh was able to do on the defensive end. Those traits could be even more valuable now considering that the pick and roll is so vital in today’s game.
At first glance, Bagley and Lauri Markkanen don’t seem like a great fit. After taking a deeper look, it makes sense that GarPax are reportedly dreaming of making Bagley Markkanen’s running mate.
Is that realistic, though? Despite losing six out of seven after the all-star break, the Bulls remain just the 8th worst team in the league. While the bottom eight are still very jumbled, every team in the bottom seven is trying just as hard as the Bulls are to lose. At most, there are four names that will be called before Bagley’s on draft night. He might not make it past the 3rd pick. It’s seeming more and more unlikely that the Bulls will be able to tank their way into a position to draft him.
Marvin Bagley is an awesome prospect. Too awesome, unfortunately, to make his way to Chicago.
