How Much Should The Blackhawks Pay Richard Panik?

It’s funny to think that a little over a year ago the trade that sent Richard Panik to the Blackhawks barely even registered as a footnote in comparison to the other moves taking place throughout the NHL at the time.

After all, what the Blackhawks gave up for the 24-year old, who, by that time had already been designated by many as a bust, wasn’t exactly TSN Breaking News-worthy either. The deal sent Jeremy Morin – who, by now, must find himself on the heels of Jaromir Jagr for the greatest number of frequent flyer miles and address changes in the history of the NHL – to Toronto in exchange for Panik. Essentially, it was what beer-bellied, barstool analysts out there might describe as a “garbage for garbage” trade. A move you’d need a magnifying glass to unearth in the fine-print of the back page of the daily sports section.

Toronto had taken a flyer on the once highly-touted prospect, acquiring Panik off waivers from Tampa Bay the season prior. It wouldn’t take either side long, though, to realize the marriage simply wouldn’t work.

After skating 76 games and showing glimmers of production for Toronto during the 2014-2015 season, Panik failed the crack the Leafs’ opening night roster and would spend the remainder of his brief and disappointing tenure with the Maple Leafs buried in the AHL before being shipped off to Chicago later that season.

During his first half-season with the Blackhawks Panik again found himself a frequent healthy scratch, regularly being passed over for other forwards like Brandon Mashinter.

Fast forward a little over a year later and, in true testament to the cliche “it’s crazy what a year can do,” Panik has transformed himself from trade footnote and frequent scratch in 2015-2016 to one of the Blackhawks’ cornerstones in what might be one of the NHL’s most impressive and surprising single player turnarounds this season.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtdiGinmrgA

Describing Panik, himself, as irreplaceable would be getting a little ahead of ourselves. There’s few players in the NHL who are truly irreplaceable and Richard Panik, certainly, is not one of them. Panik’s contributions to the Blackhawks overall success, on the other hand, have been irreplaceable – especially considering the low expectations seemingly everyone with two eyes and a partially-functioning brain had for him upon entering the season.

Rather, Panik has transformed himself from lineup usurper to bonafide top line winger. In 77 games, which have primarily been spent solidifying one of the pivotal wings alongside Jonathan Toews on the Blackhawks top line, Panik has nearly equaled his total career output in goals, assists and points during this season alone. With 42 points at $875,000, you’d be hard-pressed to find a more effective, bang-for-your-buck player in the NHL right now.

Now for the three words that induce night-sweats in Blackhawks fans more severely than any other three words in the English language, Panik is due to hit restricted free agency this summer.

Sorry for triggering the dormant memories of Brandon Saad resting harmlessly in your subconscience.

Now, unlike the debacle that lost Saad to Columbus in the summer of 2015, it isn’t necessarily losing Panik that worries me. As I said, he’s a solid player and yet another example of Stan Bowman’s mythical ability to conjure greatness out of flaming bags of dog turds. It’s overpaying for Richard Panik that frightens my cap-weary self.

While a great story – equaling his career stats in a single season, helping to right the apparent sinking Toews ship, evolving into a key piece to a likely first place Blackhawks finish etc. – we’ve only seen a single season of this Richard Panik.

Unfortunately, agents don’t get paid to use the same rationality we unbiased spectators possess.

Above I compiled a list of players across the NHL comparable to Panik in age, statistical output and cap hits for this season.

As you can deduce for yourself, Panik, by all accords, should be in for a substantial pay raise this summer.  While, I in no way believe his cap hit for next season will extend nearly as north as Nyquist’s or Rask’s, I still find myself perturbed that it will fall somewhere in the middle – which is still a bit too much for a player who, throughout the better part of career, has been trapped in a revolving door between the minors and NHL.

By all accounts, centerman Marcus Kruger is primed to become the Blackhawks most noteworthy expansion draft casualty this off-season. This, in return, should free up just over $3-million in cap space. Space which, in theory – at least a percentage of – is likely to be offered to Panik.

The arm-chair GM in me wouldn’t give Panik the full $3-million leftover from Kruger’s hypothetical departure. A long-term extension at $3-million is a risk the Blackhawks cannot attempt to make at the moment, especially when you consider the crop of young studs they have at their disposal who, before you know it, will be restricted free agents of their own.

If I’m Stan Bowman I try my best to go the bridge-contract route, just as he did with Artemi Panarin, and attempt to retain Panik for a risk-free, trial-run of a two year extension in the ballpark of $1.5-$2-million per year. This way Panik can solidify his worth over the next season or two and then cash out the next time he hits free agency.

But, as hazards associated with restricted free agency will have it, it isn’t what the Blackhawks believe Panik is worth, it’s what potential bidders and those mangy offer sheets believe he’s worth. Regardless, I don’t see a bidding war in Panik’s future. This isn’t Brandon Saad we’re talking about.