Thursday, December 12, 2024

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Why Experts Are Predicting A Big Statistical Jump From Justin Fields

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Justin Fields would’ve preferred having a better season in 2021, but it didn’t work out that way. Across 12 games, he threw seven touchdowns and ten interceptions, averaging 180 yards passing per game. Not exactly the stat line expected from the 11th overall pick in the draft. That is one of the reasons many people are reluctant to buy into Fields this year. It is hard to get the memories of those ugly performances from last year out of their heads.

That said, there were signs he was figuring things out. He nearly cracked 300 yards passing in two of his final four games. His passer rating over that stretch was a more respectable 83.9. Much better than the 68.5 from the previous six games. It can’t be that crazy to think he’s ready to make a sizable jump in productivity this year. His experience should help him, as would even slightly improved protection. Nathan Jahnke of Pro Football Focus got a bit more technical on why a jump is coming.

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“The former Buckeye returned in Week 14 and posted back-to-back weeks with over 200 passing yards and a touchdown. However, those impressive performances were followed by an ankle injury that cost him the last three weeks of the season. He finished as a top-10 fantasy quarterback in the last four games he both started and finished.

Fields gains Luke Getsy, who was the Green Bay Packers quarterback coach and passing game coordinator, as his new offensive coordinator, which will hopefully lead to Fields dropping back to pass more often. Chicago should also run more play-action passes this season to improve Fields’ efficiency. The Bears quarterback finished in the bottom third of the league in terms of play action frequency last season, but he averaged 2.5 more yards per pass with play action than without. His runs off of play action led to first downs 46.2% of the time; therefore, more play-action would lead directly to more fantasy success.”

Justin Fields is about to see lots more play action.

Last season, the Bears had him throw just 48 of his 270 passes off play action or 17.77%. It was a far different case with the QBs, who ran variations of the wide-zone offense that Luke Getsy is installing. Aaron Rodgers was 20.15%, Matthew Stafford was 20.29%, and Jimmy Garoppolo was 22.67%. Those three players finished 1st, 6th, and 9th in passer rating for last season. Play action is such a benefit to quarterbacks.

Justin Fields is no different in that regard. As a rookie, he completed 61.9% of his passes for 509 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions on play action passes. That makes the decision by former head coach Matt Nagy not to run them more often even more egregious. Luke Getsy doesn’t plan to make that same mistake. He ran several play action fakes with Fields during the preseason. Most of them led to positive gains.

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Expect that to continue. The Bears will do everything in their power to make life easier for their quarterback. Fields may not take that superstar leap Joe Burrow did last year, but there’s every reason to think he will be much improved.

3 COMMENTS

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Bears_Down
Bears_Down
Sep 4, 2022 11:07 am

He should easily go for 4k and 30 tds. 17 game season its only like 235 yards and 1.5 tds per game

GrinBearIt
GrinBearIt
Sep 4, 2022 9:36 am

If he doesn’t make the Joe Burrow type jump this season, it will be because of poor pocket presence. An offense can do only so much play action, boots and moving pockets. I’m confident Fields will eventually master this challenge as well.

T-pain
T-pain
Sep 4, 2022 7:47 am

I’d be fine with them leading the league in play action and RPO’s. Give the line a chance to gel

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