Updated Odds Of Chicago Bears Landing The #1 Pick Are Wild

The NFL season is three weeks old, and most people have already made their assessment of the Chicago Bears. They’re bad. Really bad. It’s not an unreasonable statement. This team has started 0-3, with each game ending in a blowout of varying degrees. Last Sunday in Kansas City was the lowest point yet, falling behind 41-0 before the Chiefs showed some mercy by pulling Patrick Mahomes in the 3rd quarter. It didn’t matter. Everybody knew the truth by that point. This is a terrible football team.

Their quarterback is lost. The coaching staff has serious questions on both sides of the ball. Defensively, they still can’t get to the quarterback and now have a banged-up secondary. These reasons are why hope has already faded on 2023. Fans have their eyes squarely set on the 2024 off-season. It is possible they could end up with the #1 overall pick for the second year in a row. They would be only the sixth team in the Super Bowl era to accomplish that feat. Seth Walder of ESPN crunched the numbers to determine how good their odds are.

It’s surprisingly optimistic for how early the season is.

Between their own pick and the Panthers' pick, the Bears have a 38% chance to earn the No. 1 overall pick in next year's draft, per FPI.
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) September 25, 2023

The Chicago Bears have many questions to answer.

If they do end up with the #1 pick, it feels like a foregone conclusion they will use it on a quarterback. The Fields experiment is over. That much is obvious. What must still be determined is whether this current regime will be around to make that pick. Head coach Matt Eberflus is on the hot seat with an ugly 3-17 record. His defense is once again the worst in the NFL. Nothing he’s done has shown he has this team pointed in the right direction. Expectations are that barring a turnaround, he will be fired at some point.

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That leaves GM Ryan Poles. The Chicago Bears have never fired a GM after only two seasons. However, Poles did hire Eberflus and chose to keep Fields at quarterback. Those two decisions are looking brutal in hindsight. New team president Kevin Warren may wish to reset everything. The next regime would have two 1st round picks and a mountain of cap space to work with. They’d also be free to pick their own quarterback. Knowing this organization, it’s wise never to assume anything.