Some experts have tried to downplay the idea that the Chicago Bears have little leverage for the #1 pick in trade talks. Common sense says this isn’t true. The veteran market isn’t looking great. Derek Carr is the only proven name available as a free agent. Aaron Rodgers is supposedly a trade option, but that isn’t even certain. Lamar Jackson and Daniel Jones are likely to get franchise tagged. So unless a team is willing to gamble on Jimmy Garoppolo or Baker Mayfield, their best shot to land that franchise difference-maker is in the draft.
Chicago holds the golden ticket. Trade up to #1 and you can take any of the QBs you want. It comes down to which team will bite the bullet. Here is where it gets interesting. Lance Zierlein is the top draft analyst for NFL Network. He writes all their scouting reports and has strong connections in the personnel community. That was why it was noteworthy to hear him on his show, The Bench, basically say it would be wise to bet on the Houston Texans trading up to #1.
That by itself isn’t totally concrete. Zierlein doesn’t have a track record of providing inside information. Well, Benjamin Allbright does. He is one of the most well-connected insiders in the NFL. Check out these two tweets he posted on Friday.
It sounds like the Chicago Bears already have plans in motion.
Houston moving up to #1 isn’t hard to believe. They have many extra draft picks from the Deshaun Watson trade, including the 12th overall pick. The cost to jump from #2 wouldn’t be over the top, likely a couple of Day 2 picks. This would ensure they get the quarterback they want and have plenty of ammunition left over to build around him. Then Poles would be in a sweet position. He could pocket those picks and take the best player on his board or move down again and stockpile even more. Teams may wish to get in front of Indianapolis at #4 for the next quarterback in line.
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If the Chicago Bears play their cards right, they could end up with several quality extra picks to work with. All that while still landing in a good spot to take a top prospect. There are few developments better than that for a rebuilding team. It is why so many felt back in January that the Bears got away with robbery when they landed the #1 pick. Now Houston must spend extra picks to get the QB they want when they could’ve had the #1 spot if they’d merely lost to the Colts—a harsh consequence of not handling the Lovie Smith situation properly.
Everyone please stop with the value charts … the #1 Pick is worth what some team is willing to pay for it and what the Bears are willing to accept for it … plain and simple.
Poles and the Bears know the floor they are willing to accept … let’s see who goes above it.
As much as it irks me to agree with Thomas Gena, when he is right, he is right. Martin Melhus’ analysis is some of the best I have seen including from the “professionals”. To add to the 2 and 12 scenario, one should also note that when Indy runs out of draft pick value to offer, they have good younger players with palatable contracts to offer in trade while the Texans don’t have much along those lines. For example, if Indy put Deforest Buckner’s contract on the table, how do the Texans top that? Tunsil has only a year left… Read more »
I’m anxious to see how the FA will influence the demand and supply on Draft Day. I’m wondering how much of “who takes what” in FA will influence what the teams have to move on draft day? If we take the cream in FA O-line and D-line in FA do we pressure teams on draft day to move-up for prime linemen as well as QB?
All it takes is for Indy to offer more. Houston cannot stand there and watch Indy take their guy. That’s what this whole draft comes down to. I just hope LV or another team falls in love with Stroud and wants to sell the store to also move up.
Lol! The same people with the same BS and drama falling for the same old parlor tricks. Hey Rocky, watch me pull it outta my pants!