The Chicago Bears won the NFC North last season for the first time in seven years. It was a magical run characterized by offensive brilliance and 4th quarter magic. They won a playoff game, too. One would think that might earn them some credibility in the eyes of experts going into 2026—no such luck. The team has been the popular choice for the one most likely to regress this year. Part of it is fear about the defense and whether it can possibly replicate last season’s high turnover rate. However, the main argument seemed pretty clear across the board.
This division was too strong to allow it.
There was no way the Detroit Lions, who many still see as the class of the NFC North, would have another disappointing year like last season. They would reassert control. Green Bay would remain a contender. Even Minnesota would improve. There is no way the Bears would weather that storm.
Except early signs suggest those projections were optimistic at best. Green Bay lost its sixth straight game on opening day via another late collapse in Minnesota. The Vikings lost their starting quarterback, Kyler Murray, in the process. By far the most alarming is the Lions. While their offense remains potent as usual, their defense has cratered. After allowing 30 points to New Orleans in week one, they watched Josh Allen and Buffalo trample them for 41 on Thursday Night Football.
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The Chicago Bears have no reason to fear this division.
Is it still tough? Of course. All three teams remain talented. Yet this idea that they will magically overcome the problems that plagued them last year felt more than a little naive. Green Bay won’t have star pass rusher Micah Parsons until late October at the earliest. Running back Josh Jacobs is also out due to legal issues. Detroit’s defense has no prospect of getting much better than it is. It’s not like a major injury is holding them back. They just can’t seem to execute well, and it’s killing them. As for Minnesota? Their merry-go-round at quarterback continues.
This is not to say the Chicago Bears are without flaws. They have defensive concerns of their own after allowing 37 points in Carolina. However, they at least have an identity. Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams lead the offense to plenty of points, while the defense focuses on forcing turnovers. It’s not always pretty, but it works. There is no evidence at this point suggesting they should fear the rest of the division. Every one of those other teams is beatable. This idea that repeating was never in the cards felt like a flawed argument to begin with, anyway.
The Bears have a premium opportunity to seize control early.
They already claimed a key NFC victory over the Panthers. Now they can do the same in the division by taking down Minnesota on Sunday. If they succeed, they face the Eagles next week. A victory there suddenly gives them a 3-0 record in the conference and unquestioned command of the North out of the gate. After that, they should beat the rebuilding New York Jets before a showdown with the Packers in Green Bay, who will likely still be without Parsons. A 5-0 start could mean all the difference.
The Chicago Bears have done that three times in the Super Bowl era. They won the division all three of those years and reached the Super Bowl twice. Anything can happen. Maybe the pessimists will turn out to be correct. Still, their arguments are looking pretty shaky just two weeks into the season. Nothing about this division seems nearly as daunting as they made it out to be.
