The Chicago Bears didn’t even try to hide their intentions on Wednesday. They didn’t go for gamesmanship or their usual tactics. Head coach Matt Eberflus stepped to the conference table, greeted the press, and immediately declared Justin Fields out for the season finale against Minnesota with a hip injury. Backup Nathan Peterman would start. If that weren’t bad enough, guards Teven Jenkins and Michael Schofield were placed on Injured Reserve. The Bears won’t be fielding anything close to a competitive roster at Soldier Fields. Most fans couldn’t be happier.
It ensures Fields will avoid any major injuries and virtually guarantees they will lock up the #2 pick in the 2023 draft. That by itself would be a great thing. However, it has a chance to get even better. If the Houston Texans beat the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, it would hand Chicago the #1 overall pick. It would be the first time since 1947 this has happened.
Some people may not understand the magnitude of what that could mean. So here is a breakdown of what has happened in recent years whenever a team has either utilized or traded the #1 pick.
The Chicago Bears have a golden opportunity.
Recent #1 picks (non-QBs):
This is every #1 pick that wasn’t a quarterback since 2000. Walker is obviously too early to judge. Of the remaining six, five of them went to multiple Pro Bowls. That is as good a hit rate as any team could ask for. It is the primary reason the pick is so coveted. The team can take any prospect they consider the best on their board. It is hard to screw up. Football is a team sport, but often it takes one great player to change the fortunes of a franchise. Getting that pick might be Poles’ best chance.
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Results from trading the #1 pick:
1995 – Panthers trade 1st pick to Bengals for 5th pick (Kerry Collins) and 2nd round pick (Shawn King)
1997 – Jets trade 1st pick to Rams for 6th pick, 3rd round pick, 4th round pick, and 7th round pick
Players ultimately acquired after further trades
- James Farrior
- Leon Johnson
- Dedric Ward
- Chuck Clements
- Jason Ferguson
- Dustin Johnson
- Terry Day
- Ronnie Dixon
2001 – Chargers trade 1st pick to Falcons for 5th pick (LaDainian Tomlinson), 3rd round pick (Tay Cody), future 2nd round pick (Reche Caldwell), and WR Tim Dwight
2016 – Titans trade 1st pick, 4th round pick, and 6th round pick to Rams for 15th pick, two 2nd round picks, 3rd round pick, future 1st round pick, future 3rd round pick
Players ultimately acquired after further trades
- Jack Conklin
- Austin Johnson
- Derrick Henry
- Corey Davis
- Jonnu Smith
- LeShaun Sims
- Kalan Reed
The truth is that trading down worked out well in three of the four instances. Carolina secured a solid quarterback and some help on defense. The Chargers still got a Hall of Fame running back, while Caldwell became a decent receiver for a few years. Tennessee arguably did the best, using their pick bounty to land a very good right tackle in Conklin and the best running back of this generation in Henry. Smith and Davis were also okay additions. This route would give the Chicago Bears loads of flexibility and extra opportunities to land good players.
This post is for those enamored with Bryce Young. CJ Stroud will be the 1st QB taken in this draft, NOT Bryce Young. The combine will shed some light on the reasons why. I have just 1 question… As talented as Bryce is, how long do you think he would hold up taking the beating Justin has this year? Keep in mind, he is not a big guy, especially by NFL standards for the QB position. I don’t want to hear about the Russell Wilsons and Kyler Murrays because they are outliers. Quite frankly, I think NFL defenses would break… Read more »
Because if they get #1 they can flip Fields to a QB needy team like Carolina for a package that includes picks and DJ Moore and then draft Bryce Young.
trade #1 t0 hou. for 2 /11 next yrs 1 and 3rd
If only there were ‘guarantees’ … but that just doesn’t happen. It’s only been a short time for us to evaluate Poles’ Talent evaluations, so no one knows how this could turn out, regardless of what they do, unfortunately.
We should trade the #1 and play mind games with Houston – field offers then take the #2nd and 11th pick. Take Anderson and the WR from TCU or OHio state