The thing to remember about blockbuster trades is that there are almost always behind-the-scenes details that reveal how close they were to being different. Khalil Mack joined the Chicago Bears in 2018 but was almost a member of the San Francisco 49ers, among other teams. Chicago won the race because the Raiders’ GM felt the Bears had the best chance to pick high in the 1st round of the 2019 and 2020 drafts. It shouldn’t be a surprise that Ryan Poles‘ landmark dealing of the #1 overall pick to the Carolina Panthers had some juicy alternate history details behind it.
Peter King of NBC Sports has been well-connected to this entire process. He was the one Poles spoke to about how things were unfolding. The GM felt confident at the time he could get 1st round picks in 2024 and 2025 based on the interest he was getting. He didn’t reveal at the time that he almost pulled off one of the rarest feats in NFL draft history. That of the double trade down from #1 overall. It turns out he had the parameters of a deal in place where he could’ve moved to #2 in a deal with Houston, then dropped again to #9 with Carolina.
Here’s why it didn’t unfold that way.
Poles told me he had significant discussion with Houston at number two that could have made him trade down twice in the top 10—with both the Texans and Panthers. He wouldn’t be specific on what broke down, but he did say: “I thought there was an opportunity to do something historically pretty cool with a trade from one to two and two to nine. That had potential to add more draft capital this year, and then the possibility that you’re sitting on three ones in the following year. That had my attention. But my gut told me to trigger on it now. At the combine, I thought those quarterbacks did an outstanding job in their interview process. A lot of teams felt really good about some of those guys, but as you get further away from the combine, maybe there’s a bad pro day or something that turns teams off.”
My sense is that Poles is close to Carolina GM Scott Fitterer from years of road scouting and personnel conversations, and he could get a read on exactly what Carolina would do and what it wouldn’t. He doesn’t know Houston GM Nick Caserio as well, so it could be Poles was never sure how far the Texans would go to do the deal. In a draft with questions about all the top quarterbacks and no Andrew Luck or Trevor Lawrence in the group, once Carolina agreed to send wideout D.J. Moore and two ones and two twos, Poles was convinced he shouldn’t wait.
“Scott and I have a pretty good relationship, being around each other on the road,” Poles said. “I think that played a big part of it. And trust. He wanted to get it done. He was clear with his intentions.”
Ryan Poles’ decision came down to risk factors.
He knew the potential reward of landing three 1st round picks in 2024. The benefits could’ve been astonishing. On the other hand, it required waiting. He understands the fickle nature of GMs. Once the euphoria of seeing a player up close wears off, their interest in giving up major assets starts to fade. He feared that waiting until late March or early April to make the deal would lead to Houston playing hardball. That put his already established agreement with Carolina at risk. Once Moore entered the picture, he knew waiting wasn’t an option.
Some people will criticize Ryan Poles for this decision. He should’ve taken the risk. That is fine with him. The Bears GM understands it’s the nature of his position to be constantly second-guessed. It doesn’t change his stance. He feels he made the right deal for his franchise. Not only did he acquire three extra draft picks, including a future 1st, but he also got his young quarterback a legitimate weapon other teams know they can’t ignore. If Moore balls out and even one of those extra picks becomes a star, Poles will be celebrated.
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want is funny about this assessment that second guessing is the nature of this business, is that poles is providing all the material to second guess him with. good lord, stop talking, it is only hurting your reputation.
so again, basically admitting he could have done better. unforunately, i think we are seeing an immature first time GM get played by a friend. no way carolina doesn’t give pretty much the same deal for the 2nd,. and by waiting, history tells us, the lust for the QB goes up. I will bet all 4 go in the first 5 picks if not first four. I think he is just some one who is very conservative and a bit unsure of himself. again, not a bad trade, and if this happened on draft day, no questions, but the fact… Read more »
Take Bijan at #9 or if lower, get Bijan and an early 2nd round selection.
Martin that is the complete opposite of what you were saying every day until Poles made the trade. It was all about the chart values and the players didn’t matter. People, especially me, kept saying there wasn’t a Trevor Lawrence in this draft but that didn’t matter because the chart says what every pick is worth.
I usually like reading your comments. I can’t believe you pulled a complete 180 on something you had so much conviction in only a couple weeks ago.
Poles did the right choice and I had Carolina as the best choice because Houston was gonna low ball anyway and Carolina was the most ready to trade and when opportunity knocks you take advantage of it because there’s many ways Poles can go now, including another trade down