There is a reason teams rarely trade the #1 overall pick. It’s the most valuable spot in an entire draft. It allows a team to pick who they perceive to be the best player out of over 300 prospects. Given their overall lack of star talent, one would think the Chicago Bears like this idea. However, GM Ryan Poles seems determined on his course to trade the selection. Buzz is already picking up. Those around the league expect it to happen at some point soon. It would be only the third time since 2001 such a move was made.
Poles spoke with Albert Breer of The MMQB about this situation. He identifies around seven players he’d feel comfortable taking at #1 overall. There are about eight that he gave a “blue” tag in his color grading scale, which is the highest he gives a prospect. The trick in any trade down is ensuring you still have a chance to land a difference-maker with your new pick. Breer asked why he felt so comfortable taking such a risk. Poles had two very good reasons to feel this way.
Both are on their way to Canton.
At one point in our conversation, I asked Poles about balancing having picks to get true difference-makers (like Chris Jones and Travis Kelce in Kansas City) vs. having volume to create a balanced roster. He then stopped me with a reminder—Jones was the 37th pick in the 2016 draft, and Kelce was the 63rd pick in the ’13 draft.
“What you learn over time is really the more draft capital you have, the more chances, the more swings at the plate, you get to hit some of those players,” Poles says. “Especially when you set the organization up like we have to develop players, because they may not have everything yet and their game may not be complete. With teaching and the stuff we have in performance, we can get them to hit their ceiling. And then you can end up with some of the guys like that. So having more swings, you want that, it’s really a numbers game.”
Ryan Poles has seen this strategy work before.
People forget Kansas City acquired Chris Jones after trading down from the 28th pick in 2016 to the 37th pick. They secured an extra 4th round pick and 6th round pick in return. San Francisco took injury-prone guard Joshua Garnett, and the Chiefs took Jones, who they probably would’ve taken at #28. That is where understanding the board becomes so vital. Kansas City made a habit of these types of moves during Poles’ time there.
In 2011, they traded down from #21 to #26. While wide receiver Jonathan Baldwin was a bust, the 3rd round pick they got for that move became star pass rusher Justin Houston. Ten years later, the Chiefs moved all the way from the 31st pick to the 58th in a massive deal with Baltimore. They received Pro Bowl tackle Orlando Brown in that deal and used the pick to select stud linebacker Nick Bolton. Ryan Poles got an excellent education on how to find value after moving down.
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He feels he can still land a good player later in the 1st round. The additional draft capital he’d get in such a deal would present a grand opportunity to reshape the Bears roster into something special.
Pacm —
BINGO!
@Thomas Gena, last year’s draft was a success, as far as I’m concerned. Gordon, Brisker, Jones are all solid pieces. However, the Roquan trade was bad and the Claypool trade abysmal. Both make me doubt Pole’s ability to negotiate, which is why I’m afraid we’re going to lose the trade for the #1.
And a word about this idea of more swings…if your swing is bad, it doesn’t matter how many you take…unless the pitcher is lobbing them. Several lobs in this draft, namely Bryce Young.
QUESTION: What exactly, has Ryan Poles accomplished that has given you such confidence?
(Please refrain from using the name “Ryan Pace” in your responses.)
The more picks the better!
I like Poles way of thinking, Poles will trade back and collect the picks he thinks are necessary to build a core for ‘sustained’ success. I don’t think Poles has in his mind that the Bears are going to make this huge jump this year. He is going to build long-term, slow and steady.
Angelo, Emery and Pace operated very sort-sighted whilst building their teams and how’s that worked out for the Bears over the last 15-20 years?!
In Poles we trust … until we don’t … right?
I think that Poles knows there is no such thing as a 110% sure fire star pick in any draft. Players in the draft have never played in the NFL. Some may have a better chance that others, but every one is a gamble. There is also the possibility of career ending injury with every play. Having more picks increases the chance of landing on good and great players who can be found in ever round of the draft. If you miss on one or they get hurt, you still have other players who may make it. Something that was… Read more »