Initial rumors indicated the Patriots will be seeking a first round pick and maybe an extra mid rounder as well. Since then some anonymous executives around the league have been quoted stating they feel he’s worth closer to a second or even third rounder. Given the Patriots gave up a late second to get him back in 2014, odds are they’d like a higher return for him.
Perhaps the best way to help gauge what Garoppolo might fetch is to compare with previous trades for former backup quarterbacks. This will involve what pick they were originally drafted with, how old they were at the time of the trade and how many games they’d started.
Brett Favre (Green Bay Packers)
- Former 2nd round pick
- 23-years old
- 0 games started
- Compensation: 19th overall pick
Matt Hasselbeck (Seattle Seahawks)
- Former 6th round pick
- 26-years old
- 0 games started
- Compensation: Swap 1st rounders (10th for 17th) and a 3rd rounder
Kevin Kolb (Arizona Cardinals)
- Former 2nd round pick
- 27-years old
- 7 games started
- Compensation: CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a 2nd rounder
Charlie Whitehurst (Seattle Seahawks)
- Former 3rd round pick
- 28-years old
- 0 games started
- Compensation: Swap 2nd rounders (40th for 60th) and 3rd rounder
Matt Cassel (Kansas City Chiefs)
- Former 7th rounder
- 27-years old
- 15 games started
- Compensation: 2nd round pick
Matt Schaub (Houston Texans)
- Former 3rd round pick
- 26-years old
- 2 games started
- Compensation: Swap 1st rounders (8th for 10th) and two 2nd rounders
Rob Johnson (Buffalo Bills)
- Former 4th round pick
- 25-years old
- 1 game started
- Compensation: 1st rounder and 4th rounder
A few takeaways from these deals? For the most part it’s actually good news. Four of the seven names listed went to at least one Pro Bowl on the team that traded for them. Another is the cost seems tied heavily to the age of the player. Look at the list and generally the younger of the quarterbacks cost more to get. Favre was 23 (1st rounder) and Johnson was 25 (1st and 4th rounders). Garoppolo turned 25 last November.
Perhaps the closest comparison is Schaub. Relatively similar draft position. Schaub was a year older but both hold two games of starting experience. In the end it basically cost the Texans two second round picks to get him from Atlanta. Odds are it will be in that same ballpark for the Bears. Ironically they might be helped out by another factor.
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Garoppolo injuring his shoulder against Miami.
That raised a red flag, however minor about whether Garoppolo can take the requisite physicality of the NFL and stay healthy. A team may not be willing to risk multiple high draft choices on something like that. Thus the only way the Patriots likely get a first round pick for him is if they can create a bidding war between the Bears and other teams.
Keep in mind both the Cleveland Browns and San Francisco 49ers have been connected to him by rumors as well. Both also have more picks to deal. Not to mention higher draft position as well. It’s a roadblock, but there is something else that might be going in the Bears favor here.
