For basketball fans, it is all about the brackets. How accurate can you be in determining which teams win throughout the NCAA tournament and who wins the championship? There is almost never a 100% accurate prediction. For football fans, their equivalent is mock drafts. Predicting how all 32 picks in the 1st round shake out is a losing proposition. However, some have a lot more success at it than others, showcasing their ability to evaluate players and assess team needs. GM Ryan Poles and his front office run several mock drafts leading up to the big day, building a database of probabilities on how things will unfold.
The same is true of fans and analysts. They run several mock drafts, using the growing information they compile to create as accurate of a picture as possible. Some are more successful at it than others. One of the best is Nick Guarisco of Fantasy Law Guy. Over the past six years, he has routinely placed in the top 10 for most accurate mock drafts out of hundreds of experts, including 1st in 2019 and 2nd in 2021. Last year, he correctly predicted five of the first six picks, nailed J.J. McCarthy to Minnesota, and Kingsley Suamataia to Kansas City. His latest update for 2025 revealed what the Chicago Bears likely do with their 10th overall pick.
This outlook feels like Ryan Poles doing what Ben Johnson wants.
That is how the offseason has unfolded to this point. Each of the Bears’ major moves has followed a clear pattern of feeling like Johnson is guiding the way, which is no surprise. The team likely promised him considerable sway in the roster-building process if he accepted the job. Guarisco believes that since Chicago addressed their line issues in free agency, they are free to take the best player available at #10. Given how the first nine picks unfold, Tyler Warren is the obvious choice.
Recent rumors indicated two quarterbacks are going in the top 3, along with Travis Hunter, Abdul Carter, and Mason Graham. Ashton Jeanty to Las Vegas at #6 has been hinted at for weeks by people with strong league connections. The only uncertainty is what the Jets, Panthers, and Saints do. Most believe New York will seek offensive line help, so Membou makes sense. Carolina needs a pass rusher, and Walker is a perfect fit for their 3-4 system. As for New Orleans, their run defense was horrendous in 2024. The best linebacker in the class immediately helps with that.
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Johnson loves utilizing tight ends in his offense. Warren is a terrific pass catcher and a determined blocker. He fits exactly what the Bears head coach wants to do. While tight end might not be a “premium” position as Ryan Poles often talks about, his level of ability makes the move justifiable.
If coach BJ’s offense is as predictable as “hey let’s throw to our two starting TEs all the time,” then I’m afraid the team is rather fucked.
I don’t have anything against Warren at 1.10. But if that’s the pick, then I would expect the O line to grade out as a top-five offensive line in the league from week 1 on. If it’s anything short of that, then Poles needs to use 1.10 to improve it. He can’t keep saying one thing and doing another. We all saw last year how poorly QB1 plays when he’s pressured.
I predict we trade the #10 pick and move back to maybe 15 to get more picks, if Warren is there take him, if not take the best available running back.
Warren over Jeanty, not very likely as C Kmet is a proven commodity and a better athlete and TE than Warren, while Jeanty is a better option at RB when compared to Swift in B Johnson’s scheme given Johnson was part of the team that sent Swift packing before.
Although it seems enticing, stick with the trenches if in fact we can’t trade down. Trade down.
I just found out that the Ted kaczynski and Manson both had very high IQs in the 130-140s. They also had no clue about the Chicago Bears! Kinda a common theme that’s very interesting 🤔