At the end of the day, despite all the time and work put into it, the NFL draft is a glorified craps game. A roll of the dice. Players that look like slam dunks end up being colossal busts while others who look like boys trying to play a man’s game end up making said men look foolish. No position reflects that more than the quarterbacks.
Still, conventional wisdom says it’s better to take one earlier in the draft than later. Yet so many people covering the Bears seem convinced that this team can find their quarterback of the future later in the draft. Just give him a couple years to develop. Use that #3 overall pick on a player who is more of a guarantee.
In essence what these people want is to double the bet. For some reason they expect Chicago will win all their chips back and then some later on. Just what sort of odds are they playing against? Here is a breakdown of the QB hit rate for every major level of the draft since 1970. A hit in this instance constitutes a player who made at least one Pro Bowl in their career.
Top 5
- 27 Pro Bowlers
- 46 drafted
- Hit rate: 58.69%
Top 6-32
- 13 Pro Bowlers
- 53 drafted
- Hit rate: 24.52%
Day Two (2nd-3rd Rounds)
- 22 Pro Bowlers
- 106 drafted
- Hit rate: 20.75%
Day Three (4th-7th Rounds)
- 12 Pro Bowlers
- 204 drafted
- Hit rate: 5.88%
The steep drop from the top five to the rest of the first round alone is eye-opening. Over 34% fewer hits. The drop isn’t as severe going into the second and third rounds but after that it tanks still further. One could look at it several ways but there’s just no getting around the truth. If the Bears pass on taking a quarterback at #3 this April, they’d pass up a better than 50/50 shot at getting a future Pro Bowler.
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Arguments continue to rage about how this 2017 draft class is “weak” at quarterback. So was 2000 (Tom Brady), 1991 (Brett Favre), and 1987 (Rich Gannon). All of those guys should’ve been first round picks but perception got in the way of reality. The point being that even high-paid experts can be wrong.
This year is no different. They’ve admitted on more than one occasion that the talent level of this group is “high.” The sticking point is none of them are polished as pro passers. Then again neither was Dak Prescott, Robert Griffin III or Cam Newton. They were in Pro Bowls their rookie seasons.
The point is just because the mainstream media and their “anonymous” sources say this is a terrible quarterback class doesn’t make it true. If there’s a chance it’s not, how can the Bears justify passing on what is their greatest opportunity in over a decade to finally get that franchise quarterback? Something they’ve longed for since Elvis Presley was just becoming a thing.
