Finding the next Chicago Bears quarterback will be the most important decision of this off-season and probably the next five years for this organization. A ton of pressure is on GM Ryan Poles and head coach Matt Eberflus to get this decision right. Both have insisted it will be a collaborative effort to find the right guy for this team and the city. That means they will have to communicate about what each man is looking for in a quarterback, specifically what they feel is the most vital to success.
During his opening presser at the scouting combine, Eberflus had the chance to talk about his personal preferences for the position. He discussed the usual things: accuracy, decision-making, arm strength, and mobility—the classics. However, he got specific when pressed on the subject a little more. In his mind, the best quarterbacks can often do a few key things better than everybody else.
How are they on 3rd down? Can they conduct an effective two-minute drill? Are they at their best in the 4th quarter? Those are things that separate the good ones from everybody else.
Matt Eberflus didn’t flatter Justin Fields with those remarks.
In measuring each of those metrics, the Bears quarterback comes up small. He has thrown 16 touchdowns and 17 interceptions on 3rd down in his career. He has a 44.8 passer rating when trailing with two minutes to go in a game and a 61.3 passer rating in the 4th quarter. None of those are good looks for him. So what about the top draft quarterbacks? Stats on those metrics are difficult to find, but here are some interesting ones.
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Percent of 3rd down pass attempts that resulted in a 1st down
- 48.21% – Jayden Daniels
- 48.10% – J.J. McCarthy
- 43.82% – Bo Nix
- 42.31% – Caleb Williams
- 39.29% – Drake Maye
- 37.93% – Michael Penix
4th quarter time of possession share:
- Michigan – 52.66%
- LSU – 49.21%
- Washington – 49.16%
- Oregon – 47.41%
- North Carolina – 46.18%
- USC – 42.61%
Offensive drive efficiency rating:
- Oregon – +0.96
- Michigan – +0.50
- LSU – +0.45
- USC – +0.23
- Washington – +0.21
- North Carolina – +0.09
Based on these metrics, it looks like the two most efficient quarterbacks in this class regarding Matt Eberflus’ preferences are Jayden Daniels and J.J. McCarthy. Daniels won the Heisman trophy in 2023. McCarthy won the national championship. This does not guarantee they are future superstars, but it is at least notable. The fact both of them are far above the others in 3rd down passing can’t be ignored.
It must be noted Williams and Maye didn’t have a lot of help this past season, which might explain their less inspiring numbers. Either way, this is something to keep in mind as the Bears enter the vital stages of these evaluations.
@timgjerde56 My issue is only partially about Flus’ response. That part is the passive “try not to lose” mentality that it reminds me of, not just in their results this past season, but literally going back to Lovie who I liked well enough I suppose, but never really loved approach-wise. I also don’t need some kind of crazy dude like Dan Campbell can be, but seeing a guy without fear who coaches to win, versus survive and not lose, is a personal preference. The other part we might agree with, where you criticize the question itself, I am critical of… Read more »
Still wondering if CW is so great generational QB, why could he not win the Heisman this year? How did he get beat out by Daniels? I’m training down 1 or 2 spots and taking the best player in college football last season that has improved each year he has played instead of someone that peaked the year before.
@Arnie Yeah, maybe I went in the wrong direction. Let me make it simple.
The question was moronic one. Kinda like what’s your favorite color for the Bears uniforms? No matter what answer he gave, someone wouldn’t agree or he wouldn’t include something someone thought was more important.
Subjective questions like that deserve non-answers like “Next”.
He doesn’t need to say anything. The guys got a friggin’ beard people. Let the man just sit there for a half hour. Keep it quiet, and admire the man’s friggin’ beard. Thank him for his time, and let him take his friggin’ beard on down the road.
I think he’d look good with a pair of aviator sunglasses. Feel free to disagree.
@timgjerde56 First, Lovie Smith was not “preparing for the worst”. He openly stated many times that keeping it close and trying to win late was his intended strategy. Flus is not as direct about it as Lovie was, but even a casual glance at his team’s playcalling as a game progresses reveals the same strategy is being deployed. On defense, they stop being aggressive, and move away from what was working, instead opting to play soft coverage, stop bringing pressure, and sacrifice a lot of small gains in an effort to force their opponent to burn clock. On offense, they… Read more »