The Chicago Bears are less than a week away from opening their training camp at Halas Hall and starting to get in shape for the 2022 season. There are low expectations for Chicago as the team is undergoing a rebuild with new general manager Ryan Poles and first-year head coach Matt Eberflus. Due to these low expectations, ESPN believes that second-year quarterback Justin Fields will struggle with interceptions this season and lead the league in the category, despite not having an interception issue during his rookie season.

ESPN thinks #Bears QB Justin Fields will lead the NFL in interceptions. I disagree.

Fields had the 10th-best turnover worthy throw rate last year, but the 31st interception rate. Translation: he got super unlucky. That's a statistical outlier I'd be surprised happens again.

— Jacob Infante (@jacobinfante24) July 18, 2022

Most of Fields’ Interceptions In 2021 Were Due To Bad Luck And Not Bad Play

When Fields took over for Andy Dalton in the second game of the season last year against the Cincinnati Bengals, the first-round rookie would begin a stretch of playing in ten consecutive games. During the 12 games that Chicago’s first-year quarterback played, he passed for seven touchdowns and ten interceptions. Of Fields’ ten interceptions, eight came in the ten games he played in before missing time with a rib injury in Week 11.

When breaking down the interceptions thrown during the ten games Fields played in before his first injury, there was a majority with most of his passes that were intercepted. Four of his passes that were taken away by defenders were passes that were either tipped first at the line of scrimmage or tipped by a Bears’ wide receiver. Throughout the 2021 season, Fields had five interceptions come from tipped passes during his games against the Detroit Lions, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, San Francisco 49ers, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Green Bay Packers.

Another pressured throw that Justin Fields has to deal with.

Another tipped Darnell Mooney INT that Fields gets in his column, so foolish people can use that against him in arguing about his quality based lazily on just looking at his pass TD/INT #CHIvsGB pic.twitter.com/VxXpKPbL0g

— Andrew Jones (@TWDTV1) December 13, 2021

Tipped passes that are intercepted are usually viewed as either bad luck or the fault of the passing target if the ball goes off their hands. Half of Fields’ passes taken away by opposing defenders appeared to be more bad luck for the rookie than poor decision-making. Chicago’s rookie quarterback had five other interceptions for which he could take the blame, but even over half of those interceptions were not the fault of bad decision-making.

Three of Fields’ interceptions in 2021 came due to either poor accuracy or sheer confusion, with all three turnovers occurring in back-to-back games. In Chicago’s Week 6 matchup against the Green Bay Packers, the rookie quarterback threw a deep pass that was picked off by a Packers defender in the end zone. Although there was no one around the Packers defender who caught the ball, making it seem as if Fields made a poor throw, there was confusion on the field. The rookie quarterback, Chicago’s offense, and most people watching the game believed a penalty flag had been thrown, resulting in a free play for the Bears’ offense.

Justin Fields thought he had a free play, and he isn't the only one. Pretty sure every player on both sides thought #Packers jumped. Fields chucked one deep, thinking it was free, but it wasn't. No flag on the play.

Darnell Savage's interception stands.

Stunning.

— Ryan Wood (@ByRyanWood) October 17, 2021

Fields’ worst game involving interceptions occurred the following week against the Tampa Buccaneers ,where he was picked off three times. Two interceptions came on poorly thrown balls by the rookie quarterback. Fields was intercepted on a deep pass that was underthrown to Allen Robinson, with another pass being an overthrow to Robinson. The choice to throw to the receiver both times was not the wrong one, as Chicago’s quarterback had a favorable one-on-one matchup.

When breaking down the turnovers thrown by Fields, there were only two passes that were a result of poor decision-making by the rookie quarterback. Those two interceptions came against the Cincinnati Bengals and Green Bay Packers. Against Cincinnati, Chicago’s quarterback was picked off by linebacker Logan Wilson, who faked a blitz to drop back into coverage leading to the interception. Against the Packers, Fields looked down his passing target on an out route enabling Packers’ cornerback Rasul Douglas to jump the passing-route and return the pass for a defensive touchdown.

Fields Did Have A Concerning Issue With Ball Security That He Needs To Correct In 2022.

Although Fields didn’t have an issue with interceptions in 2022, he did have an issue protecting the football when waiting to pass the ball. Throughout the 12 games the rookie quarterback played, he fumbled the football 12 times, five of which were recovered by the defense. Fields’ most glaring weakness in 2021 was his inability to spot the free blitzing defender before the snap, which led to defenders stripping him of the ball when he dropped back to pass.

#Bears–#Bucs

Todd Bowles used a lot of late movement/disguise + zone pressure vs. QB Justin Fields.

Spin the secondary post-snap. Drop defenders into throwing lanes. And win the pass rush matchups.

Pierre-Paul sack/strip here. @NFLMatchup pic.twitter.com/j0HsIulNwT

— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) October 25, 2021

The fumbling was a consistent issue as Fields was strip-sacked during his first full appearance as the Bears’ quarterback against the Bengals and his last game of the season against the Minnesota Vikings. Problems with ball security was a recurring issue that was not corrected by the rookie quarterback, despite missing two games with injuries midway through the season.

Although Fields’ ball security issue is mostly his fault, poor pass protection from the offensive line and poor play design by former head coach Matt Nagy attributed to the problem. Chicago’s rookie quarterback was consistently forced to throw from the pocket and was rarely given passing plays with a moving pocket to reduce the risk of being sacked.

New offensive coordinator Luke Getsy has highlighted the need for a moving pocket and will implement an offensive scheme that allows Fields to rollout and avoid throwing from the passing pocket. Getsy’s planned offense for the Bears will reduce the risk of Chicago’s second-year quarterback being sacked and hit from his blindside leading to potential fumbles. Although there is a scheme to help Fields with his issue, he will be responsible for improving his ball security and his ability to feel oncoming pressure from defenders.

Justin Fields looks good, takes the lead with a touchdown pass on a rollout.

Meanwhile, the rookie QB the #49ers picked ahead of Fields, isn't ready to play yet according to the coach that picked him.pic.twitter.com/uNKnOaxfKH

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) October 31, 2021

Fields will have to and can prove detractors wrong this season by taking care of the football by both reducing his interceptions and fumbles. If NFL analysts breaks down the Bears’ rookie quarterback’s interceptions last season, it will be shown that many of those interceptions thrown were due to bad luck. Fields will throw interceptions in 2022, but he will not lead the league in passes picked off as projected.