Most analysts will say an NFL team has to get the quarterback position right. General Managers salivate at the notion they can do just that every year. Since 2000, the top pick in the draft has been a quarterback 17 times. Conversely, there have been seven drafts (2000, 2006, 2008, 2013, 2014, 2017, and 2022) when a quarterback was not selected first overall. Note the Cleveland Browns passed on Patrick Mahomes in 2017. They waited for 2018 when they selected Baker Mayfield. More on Mayfield later.
This year, analysts were torn between C. J. Stroud and Bryce Young. Going all the way back to 1998, there were debates as to who should be taken first, Peyton Manning or Ryan Leaf. In 2017, many thought the best QB was Mitch Trubisky. In 1999, Tim Couch went first overall, and Donovan McNabb, who proved to be the better QB, went second overall to Philadelphia.
Here are the 17 QBs selected with the first overall pick since 200:
2001, Michael Vick; 2002, David Carr; 2003, Carson Palmer; 2005, Alex Smith; 2007, JaMarcus Russel; 2008, Matthew Stafford; 2010, Sam Bradford; 2011, Cam Newton; 2012, Andrew Luck; 2015, Jameis Winston; 2016, Jared Goff; 2018, Baker Mayfield; 2019, Kyler Murray; 2020, Joe Burrow; 2021Trevor Lawrence; 2023, Bryce Young
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Looking at this list, you find Super Bowl winners, QBs who were labeled busts doing well with other teams, and total failures. You don’t see names like Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Brock Purdy, Dak Prescott, and Aaron Rodgers.
There is no exact science available to select that one quarterback every year, a surefire Hall of Fame play caller who will lead a team to multiple Super Bowl titles.
The current favorite to earn the MVP trophy this year, Brock Purdy, was the last player chosen in the 2022 draft. Injuries to Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance thrust Purdy to the starter’s role. The quarterback making eyes pop this year is undrafted free agent Tommy Devito. Another USDA, Jake Browning is doing well in place of Joe Burrow.
Through 14 games this season 49 QBs have started a game where their team has won. Several others have either started or seen some action during the season. The Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants have had three QBs start and win this season. An astounding FOUR QBs have started and been victorious for the Cleveland Browns. Joshua Dobbs has won games for two teams this year.
Based on what we have witnessed from general manager Ryan Poles, he is building this team with draft capital. Trading Fields for a second and third pick and choosing one of the QBs at the top of the draft is an option. Trading down to accumulate much better capital for this year and future years seems to be more likely.
Many argue that Fields isn’t worth the risk due to his inconsistent play so far. Baker Mayfield was deemed a bust after being the number one draft choice in 2018. He is now with his fourth team (3rd in just two seasons). Mayfield just became the first QB in history to walk into Lambeau Field and lead his team to victory, ending the day with a perfect passer rating of 158.3.
Unless Fields gets an endorsement from Poles and/or the coaching staff (who that may be also remains to be seen), we won’t know the answer until the new league year begins in March. Teams must exercise the fifth year option on 2021 first round draft choices by May 1, 2024 for the 2025 season.
Michael, what you are saying statistically is obvious to any who observed their own lives, the marvels of civilization through history, the accomplishments of mankind: It is easy to build something superficial, trite and easily washed away, it takes time, patience, resources, to build anything lasting. The world is filled with tin shacks, put up by people who want to get something right away, throw it up with two or three pieces and filled with self-congratulations. Everything that lasts takes time and patience, resources, knowledge and experience. Examining whatever came before, was successful before, in trades the chances of success,… Read more »
Well said
In support of the author and Arnie, the history of top picks leans heavily in favor of not wasting it on a QB. The reality is that despite the professionals spending decades and tons of money getting ready for their big moment, it still ends up a crap shoot. I ran some numbers on 16 of the 17 #1 QBs (left out Stroud because its too soon) and came up with a career average rate of 85.8. If you wonder if it is just the busts dragging down the average, actually only 4 have 90+ career averages and for all… Read more »
WTH? Kit Kat, now in birthday cake?!? Shoot, they had me at raspberry.
@JD In theory, Poles is going to get us another #1 WR when he trades our #1 pick, right? I’m a believer that Caleb is the real deal. He’s going to be a top 10, maybe top 5 QB early in his career, unless he has zero OL protection. If we are just spit-balling the premise that we would rather have the value of the first overall pick vs selecting our starting QB, I’d consider the same with taking a WR at #2 vs capitalizing on that pick’s value as well. Honestly, I want 8 picks in the top 75,… Read more »