Justin Fields faces a lot of pressure going into 2023. There will be Chicago Bears fans who keep defending him, saying patience is important. While true, the bottom line is this is Year 3. If you can’t become a good player in the NFL by the third year, the odds of you ever being good drop significantly. Yes, Fields had a bumpy start to his career. Matt Nagy mishandled his development as a rookie. Last season, he was surrounded by a depleted supporting cast. Still, he has started 25 games. He’s had enough experience by now to understand how to read defenses and operate like a professional should.
His supporting cast also looks much-improved. D.J. Moore and Chase Claypool join Darnell Mooney at wide receiver. Robert Tonyan is alongside Cole Kmet at tight end. They still have a solid running back group. Darnell Wright and Nate Davis should be big helps on the offensive line. It’s not a star-studded roster, but it’s miles better than last season. There is no reason to think Fields can’t take a big step forward as a passer this season.
That brings up the big question. What kind of stat line should be expected of him this year? I tracked the third season of every 1st round pick dating back to 2015. Those who didn’t start at least 14 games were left off to keep the data fair. Here is the average for every stat category spanning 12 quarterbacks.
- Passing yards: 3,859
- Completion %: 65.7
- Passing TDs: 25
- Interceptions: 10
Again, this is not the maximum. It’s the average of what a former 1st round quarterback should post in his third season.
Subscribe to the BFR Youtube channel and ride shotgun with Dave and Ficky as they break down Bears football like nobody else.
Justin Fields faces a daunting task.
Only three quarterbacks in franchise history have come anywhere close to those numbers. Erik Kramer was precisely in that range in 1995. Jay Cutler hit the yards and TD marks but had 18 interceptions in 2014. Then there was Mitch Trubisky in 2018, with his 3,223 yards, 24 TDs, and 12 INTs. That’s it. Nobody else has come close. For an idea of what Fields faces, he must throw for 1600 more yards and eight more touchdowns to reach those milestones compared to last season. That would be a monumental leap.
People will quickly say Justin Fields doesn’t need that much yardage because of his legs. Don’t forget Jalen Hurts had 3700 yards passing last year while still rushing for 760. Josh Allen threw for 4200 yards and rushed for over 700. Even Daniel Jones had 3200 and 700 for the Giants. The rushing idea is a poor excuse. If you want to win in this league, you must be able to throw the football. Fields is at the point where he can’t lean on inexperience, system instability, or no help around him.
If he can’t deliver a solid passing performance this season, it might be time for the Bears to make a tough decision.
Anything in the 3,500 yard range with 700+ rush yards would be a VERY nice improvement and would be very impressive. The biggest thing is reducing the turnovers. Take care of the football, and just relax and play ball. This is JF’s big year.. he either has it or he doesn’t. He needs to just play free, have fun and let it rip. But can’t take away his legs. That’s what can make him deadly. Bring on the fk’n Pack!! Time for a new era in Bears football. No more Rodgers curse.