Here’s How Much Justin Fields Must Improve To Save His Job

People are trying not to panic about Justin Fields. It’s early in the season, and learning a new offense can take time. Usually that would be more than reasonable. Then again, most cases aren’t like this one. The Chicago Bears quarterback is setting historic trends for ineptitude in the passing game. He’s barely completing half his passes and has yet to crack 200 yards in a game through the first month. That is hard to do in today’s NFL.

Bears fans aren’t strangers to subpar quarterback play. They know the situation around him isn’t ideal. The offensive line isn’t great in pass protection. His wide receivers are below average. Those are fair arguments, but are they good enough? Good quarterbacks should still function somewhat as a passer, even in less-than-ideal circumstances. Fields has good moments, but they are painfully rare.

It begs the question of how bad it must be for him to force the Bears’ hand at finding a replacement in 2023. To answer that, I compiled some research. The parameters are as follows. Below is a list of every 1st round quarterback drafted between 2010 and 2020. Next to each is their passer rating at the end of their first two seasons. I wanted to see if there was a correlation between that number and whether said QB became a quality starter or a bust. Fans may not like the results.

Passer rating of every 1st round QB by the end of their second season.

• Patrick Mahomes – 111.7
• Lamar Jackson – 104.7
• Deshaun Watson – 103.1
• Joe Burrow – 100.2
• Justin Herbert – 97.9
• Marcus Mariota – 93.8
• Robert Griffin III – 91.5
• Kyler Murray – 90.9
• Carson Wentz – 88.8
• Tua Tagovailoa – 88.8
• Jared Goff – 89.4
• Mitch Trubisky – 87.7
• Teddy Bridgewater – 87.0
• Baker Mayfield – 85.9
• Cam Newton – 85.3
• Jameis Winston – 85.2
• Daniel Jones – 84.1
• Andrew Luck – 81.5
• Sam Darnold – 81.1
• Blake Bortles – 80.0
• Ryan Tannehill – 79.1
• E.J. Manuel – 78.5
• Jake Locker – 78.4
• Josh Allen – 78.2
• Christian Ponder – 77.1
• Paxton Lynch – 76.7
• Tim Tebow – 75.1
• Johnny Manziel – 74.4
• Dwayne Haskins – 74.4
• Sam Bradford – 74.2
• Brandon Weeden – 71.8
• Blaine Gabbert – 70.2
• Jordan Love – 68.7
• Josh Rosen – 63.5

As with every list like this, there are one or two outliers. The two biggest examples are Josh Allen being in the high 70s and Marcus Mariota being in the mid-90s. However, by and large, this list paints a fairly consistent picture. Quarterbacks that fall below the 81 median end up being busts. Those that rose above it ended up having at least one or two solid seasons as a starter. Trubisky is one such example.

Justin Fields is not on a favorable trend.

At his current pace, Fields will finish 2022 with 2,001 yards, nine touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. Combined with his rookie numbers, he will have a passer rating of 71.08 when the season concludes. That puts him between Weeden and Gabbert on the list. People can talk about how bad the supporting cast is all day. The numbers are hard to argue. QBs with ratings that low after two years seldom pan out as productive NFL players.

There are 13 games left.

He still has time to steer the ship in the right direction. Sadly it doesn’t appear as if that is likely to happen. Justin Fields already seems skittish in the pocket, choosing to run even when his protection is decent. His accuracy is inconsistent, and he’s been sacked 16 times, putting him on pace for 68 this season. The Bears are doing everything they can to protect him. He must start protecting himself, or he won’t survive. His best chance is to get his rating somewhere in the 78 to 80 range. That should be enough to buy him another year. Otherwise, he’ll end up on that long list of disappointments and what-ifs.