Somehow it always seemed likely it was going to end this way. When the schedule came out months ago, that Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears matchup in Week 17 was circled by lots of people. It felt almost inevitable the Bears would be fighting for a playoff spot and their arch rivals would be standing in their way. If only because it’s been happening like that for close to three decades now.
Looking around the NFL, it’s pretty much the same thing. Nobody is giving the Bears much of a chance in this game. That isn’t a huge surprise. Green Bay has been on a roll for weeks. They’re a game away from locking up the #1 seed in the playoffs and they thoroughly dismantled Chicago in their first meeting 41-25. Why should three wins against lackluster competition convince anybody the Bears have a chance this time around?
Here is a breakdown of the matchup and how it is likely to go.
Chicago Bears facing their old demons again in the Packers
Storylines:
Jobs on the line – The Bears are playing for their chance to reach the playoffs. That is first and foremost on their minds. However, a lot of guys on that team are also battling for their futures. Most notably quarterback Mitch Trubisky, head coach Matt Nagy, and GM Ryan Pace. Trubisky is a free agent next year. Nagy is seeking just his second win against Green Bay. A loss would mark the fifth time in six seasons Pace’s teams failed to post a winning record.
Subscribe to the BFR Youtube channel and ride shotgun with Dave and Ficky as they break down Bears football like nobody else.
Slaying the beast – It’s hardly a secret at this point that the Packers have owned the Bears for close to three decades now. Especially in the past 11-12 years with Aaron Rodgers at the helm. He’s only lost to them five times in his career. This is arguably the best Packers team he has played for, which makes this game on Sunday look even more daunting for the Bears. People cannot understate how enormous a victory it would be for this organization.
Injuries:
David Bakhtiari (knee) – The Packers All-Pro left tackle was having another great year and seemed perfectly fine going into this week. Then a mishap in practice led to catastrophe as he tore his ACL. Just like that Bakhtiari is done for the season, leaving Rodgers’ blind side vulnerable. Green Bay might be able to mask the loss for a couple of weeks but as the competition gets tougher in the playoffs, this could loom large.
Jaylon Johnson (shoulder) – Chicago needs a big-time performance from their secondary if they have any hope of slowing Rodgers down in this game. That will be hard to do if they aren’t at full strength. Johnson has had a terrific rookie season but has missed the past two weeks with a nagging shoulder injury. He has yet to practice this week, leaving many pessimistic about whether he will be able to go.
Key matchups:
Robert Quinn vs. Billy Turner – The absence of Bakhtiari as stated earlier could loom large but it depends on whether the Chicago Bears can take advantage. It’s likely Green Bay will shift Turner to left tackle, something they did when Bakhtiari missed time with broken ribs earlier this year. This will put him primarily against Quinn who has had a forgettable season with just two sacks. If he can’t show up, it may not matter the Packers lost their star tackle.
Cody Whitehair vs. Kenny Clark – Chicago’s newfound life on offense has come primarily through their running game. They want to pound the football with David Montgomery. One guy who has paved the way is Whitehair, playing like a new man since moving to left guard. One player who has given him fits in recent years is Clark. The Packers’ nose tackle is always a problem. Whitehair needs to win this matchup if the Bears’ offense is going to function as they want to.
X-factors:
Davante Adams – Think about this. Adams has 1,328 receiving yards this season. He has 17 touchdowns as well. The wide receiver has accounted for 32.71% of the Packers’ passing yards and 38.63% of their passing touchdowns. Translation? Basically, their entire passing game goes through him. When opponents are able to limit him, the odds of beating Green Bay go up. The Packers are 6-1 when he tops 100 yards. They are 4-2 when he’s held under that.
Mitch Trubisky – Green Bay is the measuring stick when it comes to Bears quarterbacks. Nobody knows this better than Trubisky. He’s only beaten them once in his career. That was also the only time he posted a passer rating above 100 against them. Trubisky was the catalyst for the Bears’ brutal loss at Lambeau Field last month, throwing two interceptions and losing a fumble for a touchdown. Some people want to think his recent resurgence is the real deal. Many won’t buy that unless he delivers against the Packers.
Prediction: Packers win 27-23
This game will be considerably closer than last time. The Chicago Bears are a much more confident team than a few weeks ago. They’re also one that sounds like they understand the stakes. It’s pretty much do or die. They can’t assume there will be any tomorrow. So the Packers can expect their best shot. This game will be competitive. In the end though, as has been the case many times before, Rodgers will make the difference late.
