The Chicago Bears ground game really has gone into the toilet for the past two years. Most of the blame for that gets put at the feet of the offensive line, which is no surprise. However, not everybody is taking that route to explain it all away. At least one person wasn’t afraid to single out David Montgomery as part of the problem.
Thus far the second-year running back has managed to avoid criticism. His all-around game has improved this year. His 184 yards receiving is just one shy of his entire rookie season total. On top of that, his pass protection has taken a major step up as well. Yet that doesn’t change the reality. Montgomery was drafted to run the football.
He just hasn’t done it well enough.
Former scout Bucky Brooks wrote a column for NFL.com. In it, he laid out four things the Bears needed to do in order to help the offense find some life. One of them was sticking with the run more often. While the line is an obvious topic of conversation, he believes two other problems exist.
One is Matt Nagy’s unwillingness to keep doing it despite limited success. A 65:35 run-pass ratio so far. The other? Montgomery hasn’t done his job.
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“From a personnel standpoint, David Montgomery (3.7 yards per carry, one rush TD) needs to be more effective as the RB1. He’s not getting it done as a lead back and the Bears have to determine how to best utilize him to get at least moderate production from the ground game.”
Is this being a bit unfair? After all, Montgomery has had to meet defensive linemen in the backfield seemingly every week. Or at least it seems that way. Well, it’s not that simple.
David Montgomery could have one nagging flaw
When it comes to running the football, the greatest strength of Montgomery is his contact balance. It’s an absolute chore to get him on the ground. The first tackler almost never does it. This is what makes him so dangerous in the open field. Unfortunately, reaching the open field has been a big problem for him. Why is that?
There are two primary concerns. His lack of explosiveness and his vision. Montgomery was never known for his speed and that makes it harder to get through holes. Especially against fast NFL defenses. There is also growing video evidence that the kid has a difficult time seeing bigger running opportunities when they are there.
What will it take for David Montgomery to bounce a run outside?
Leno seals his guy from crashing down on the RB and Graham+Harris execute a solid combo block on the outside edge, but Montgomery lets #22 back into the play by cutting it inside. If he bounces, Graham has #22 pic.twitter.com/spiR1RtLwM
— Robert Schmitz (@robertkschmitz) October 27, 2020
There are stats to back this up too. Football Outsiders is one of the leading analytics sites in the business. They have a metric called Adjusted Line Yards. It is a formula that takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on the following percentages:
- Losses: 120% value
- 0-4 Yards: 100% value
- 5-10 Yards: 50% value
- 11+ Yards: 0% value
Based on their latest calculations, the Bears adjusted line yards through seven games is 4.36. That ranks them 13th in the NFL. Not great but not terrible. Where it gets interesting is that Bears running backs are gaining just 3.88 yards per carry. What does this mean? Basically that Montgomery isn’t making the most of the chances he’s gotten.
Just take Tampa Bay for example.
Their offensive line is getting 4.39 yards in adjusted line yardage. Yet their running backs are at a healthy 4.55 yards per carry. Only five other teams ahead of the Bears have lower running back yardage than adjusted line yardage. Four of them are still well over 4.0 yards per carry. All of them better than the Bears.
Last but not least? Go back to 2018. Chicago was a much worse 3.92 in adjusted line yards. Yet they still managed 3.83 yards per carry. Just .05 worse than this year. Why? Namely credit that to Jordan Howard who, for all his faults, had much better vision and feel as a runner.
