Friday, November 29, 2024

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Crazy Stat Explains Justin Fields’ Slow Growth As A Passer

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Justin Fields has Chicago Bears fans divided. Everybody is thrilled he’s putting points on the board and looking more and more like a franchise quarterback. The problem some have is how he’s doing it. A third of yardage this season have come on the ground. There is a lingering belief he still doesn’t know how to beat teams with his arm. There are viable explanations for this. The Bears’ offensive line still struggles in pass protection. Too often, opponents get a rusher in Fields’ face before he hits his back step. Their group of wide receivers remains thin as well, lacking options that can get open consistently.

Now, this is not to say the QB himself lacks blame. He can still be slow with his reads and remains hesitant to throw into tight windows. His pocket footwork has improved, but he still has a ways to go. People are left wondering what’s taking so long. The truth is quarterbacks develop at different speeds. Fields has found ways to make plays even as his passing prowess remains a work in progress. Yet something came to light recently that might explain this. Albert Breer of the MMQB came across a wild stat about the Bears signal-caller.

“To that end, someone sent me some staggering numbers on Fields. Between his time as a varsity QB in high school, and three college seasons, Fields had 1,024 pass attempts. Lawrence, by comparison, had 2,273.

Want more? Raw as Patrick Mahomes was coming into the NFL, he actually had 2,262 attempts between Whitehouse (Texas) High and Texas Tech. And so that meant he and Lawrence simply had more to draw back on than Fields did, and Fields was going to have to build his library up to get where he was going.”

Justin Fields didn’t get the necessary reps.

World Series champion Terry Francona once said it takes a young baseball player about 2,000 at-bats before they’re ready for the jump to the pro level. That gives them enough time to hone their swing and learn how to handle pro-caliber pitchers. The same concept can be applied to college quarterbacks. Think about the ones that had immediate success when they got to the NFL. Then look at how many pass attempts they had in college.

  • Justin Herbert – 1,293
  • Patrick Mahomes – 1,349
  • Andrew Luck – 1,064
  • Russell Wilson – 1,489
  • Matt Ryan – 1,347
  • Ben Roethlisberger – 1,304

Justin Fields had 618 passes by the time he left Ohio State. Combined with his past two seasons in Chicago, he’s now up to 1,095. That should tell you how inexperienced he was when it came to passing against high-caliber defenses. Playing with elite talent in college helped mask that problem. Only now has he finally started catching up to those other guys on the list. It’s not a coincidence that his efficiency has improved. He’s making more good decisions from the pocket.

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Yes, he’s not where the elite guys are. That doesn’t mean he won’t get there. As offensive coordinator Luke Getsy has said for months, this kid needs reps.

14 COMMENTS

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Bill B
Bill B
Nov 17, 2022 6:44 pm

Fields averages 20.7 PPG this season. 20.7 * 9 more games = 186 more passes. 1095 + 186 = 1281. Hey, that’s close to Juston Hebert 1,293 above! I’ll take that!

Tim Flynn
Tim Flynn
Nov 17, 2022 2:24 pm

One previous commenter mentioned Trubisky and, however valid the contention of this article may be, Mitch had two things in common with Fields: Bad NFL coaching and an even more ridiculously little 572 college pass attempts.

But, of course, he never had the physical abilities of Fields either.

Scott Loterman
Scott Loterman
Nov 17, 2022 2:03 pm

the meandering baseline is a sure indicator of a false narrative. it goes like this: “the problem is…”
oh all the WRs aren’t getting open
oh all the WRs are getting open but that’s the only time they catch
oh all the WR’s can’t catch
oh all the WR’s can catch just not contested balls
oh all the WR’s can catch contested balls but justin doesn’t trust them
oh claypool will save us immediately
oh claypool won’t save us immediately
oh claypool sucks. cut him.

time for a new, solid narrative.

Carlos
Carlos
Nov 17, 2022 12:02 pm

Makes sense. Next year, hopefully poles hits on his picks, the line solidifies, and the receivers get better, we may have the first 4k passer for the bears.

Thomas J Cameron
Thomas J Cameron
Nov 17, 2022 11:49 am

There could be a correlation between JF1 and MT10. Trubisky was hammered because of his lack of reps in College, as I recall. Trubisky simply didn’t improve like JF1.

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