The Chicago Bears have been down this road before. As crazy as it sounds, this is now the third time in the past 17 years that the franchise has surrendered two 1st-round picks for a veteran player. They did it in 2009 to acquire quarterback Jay Cutler from the Denver Broncos. Then in 2018, they did it again for Oakland Raiders pass rusher Khalil Mack. Both moves created early success. Cutler got the team to the NFC Championship in his second season. Mack helped them win the division in his first. However, both trades ultimately came back to haunt them.
Failures to keep the roster stocked with young talent led to the team succumbing to age and depth issues, eventually falling into long, agonizing losing streaks. Chicago had just one winning season with Cutler after that conference title game trip. After Mack’s first year, they didn’t have a winning record for six straight seasons. Many fans fear the team is in danger of walking down the same path despite the excitement of acquiring Jeffery Simmons.
However, there are two methods to avoid such a disaster. Methods other teams have successfully implemented.
Method #1 – The Chicago Bears must nail those 2nd-round picks
With no 1st-rounders available, that means the 2nd-round picks the Bears have remaining just became infinitely more important. They are really the only reasonable chance the team will have in the next two drafts to land a legitimate starter in the draft. As we all know, the odds in the 3rd round and beyond are beyond low. Part of the reason the two previous blockbuster swings for Jay Cutler and Khalil Mack proved so catastrophic is that Jerry Angelo and Ryan Pace badly mismanaged those 2nd-rounders.
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| Year | Pick Type | Details | Outcome | Player(s) they missed out on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 2nd-Round Pick (#49) | Traded to SEA on draft day for a 2009 3rd-round pick and a 4th-round pick. | Selected Jarron Gilbert and Henry Melton. | Max Unger LeSean McCoy William Moore |
| 2010 | 2nd-Round Pick (#42) | Traded to TB in October 2009 in exchange for DE Gaines Adams. | Adams tragically passed away in January of that year from a heart condition. | Rob Gronkowski Linval Joseph Carlos Dunlap Golden Tate |
| 2019 | 2nd-Round Pick (#56) | Traded to NE in the 2018 draft to move up to pick #51. | Selected Anthony Miller | Jessie Bates III Brian O’Neill Fred Warner |
| 2020 | 2nd-Round Pick (#50) | Held onto the pick | Selected Jaylon Johnson | Trevon Diggs Jalen Hurts |
You have to imagine that if the Bears had landed at least two of those listed players, it would’ve kept the team competitive in the long term. Instead, they got two busts and Melton, who was a solid player, but not a difference-maker.
Then you look at a team like Denver. They sent two 1sts to Seattle for quarterback Russell Wilson. That was a disaster. Yet somehow the Broncos remain a playoff contender. How? Nabbing Nik Bonitto and Marvin Mims in the 2nd round of those drafts was major. The problem is this method is difficult to pull off. Most teams that tried to follow the same path failed to yield even one good player from the 2nd round.
Method #2 – Stockpile extra picks
This method has a little more flexibility. The logic dictates that in the absence of quality picks (1st rounders), the best strategy to go for is quantity. That means stockpiling extra selections wherever you can. It can be done by trading away unnecessary players on your roster for mid- or late-round picks. You can move down in the draft to stockpile as well. There is also the use of the compensatory pick formula. No team has done that better than the Los Angeles Rams.
They famously gave up two 1st-round picks for Jalen Ramsey in 2019. That didn’t yield immediate results. So how did they survive? By finding ways to stack extra picks. Between 2019 and 2020, they received four compensatory picks and conducted three trades that netted them three additional picks.
| Date | Transaction | What the Rams Sent | Extra Draft Capital Received |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 16th, 2019 | Trade | CB Marcus Peters | 2020 5th-round pick |
| April 9, 2020 | Trade | WR Brandin Cooks 2022 4th-Round Pick | 2020 2nd-Round Pick |
| April 25, 2020 | Draft-Day Trade Back | 2020 4th-Round Pick | • 2020 4th-Round Pick • 2020 7th-Round Pick • 2020 7th-Round Pick |
Yet the Minnesota Vikings might’ve been even better at it.
Everyone remembers the fateful Herschel Walker trade, for they gave up three 1st-round picks and more for the Pro Bowl running back from Dallas. It was a disaster. By all rights, it should’ve tanked the franchise for a decade. Instead, they made the playoffs in 1992, 1993, and 1994. This was accomplished by holding 34 picks over the next three drafts. That allowed them to secure eventual Pro Bowlers like Terry Allen, Todd Scott, and Ed McDaniel. Not to mention Jake Reed.
The Chicago Bears failed to adhere to this less with both of their previous trades as well. They did accumulate 9 picks in the 2009 draft, but had only 5 the next year. That worked out to a normal 14. It was even worse the second time, as they had 5 picks in 2019 and 7 in 2020. That is 12, which is two below normal. So not only did they remove their two highest-quality picks via those trades, but they also narrowed their margin of error even further by trading away more picks.
Bears GM Ryan Poles has already shown an understanding of this issue.
He has extensive experience being in a front office operating without a 1st-round pick. Even better, he has experience using both methods listed above. As a personnel executive in Kansas City, he watched the Chiefs opt for the 2nd-round option because they had only 12 picks in 2018 and 2019 following the Patrick Mahomes trade. They had three 2nd-rounders in that stretch. Two became Pro Bowl returner Mecole Hardman, and the other was safety Juan Thornhill, a quality starter on two of their Super Bowl defenses.
Then, as GM of the Chicago Bears, Poles enacted the other method of stacking extra picks. With no 1st-round pick in 2022 because of the Justin Fields trade, he flipped Khalil Mack to Los Angeles for a 2nd, then made four separate trades to move down in the draft for an additional four selections. This helped him secure players like Kyler Gordon, Jaquan Brisker, Braxton Jones, and Elijah Hicks. That was without the assistance of head coach Ben Johnson and his own sharp eye for talent. Don’t be surprised if Poles starts looking for ways to add more draft capital at some point between now and the draft.
