When the Chicago Bears drafted Cole Kmet in the 2nd round two years ago, the level of expectations placed on his shoulders was high. That is not uncommon for somebody who is the first pick of a draft class. At the same time, one must remember he was the 43rd pick overall. If there had been a 1st round pick in that class, it is hard to imagine expectations being as high. Presuming people were a bit more measured about Kmet, they might appreciate what he accomplished last season.
The young tight end topped the 600-yard threshold for receiving yards in 2021. He’s the first at his position to do so for the Bears in seven years. That is an accomplishment worth applauding, considering his circumstances, namely having to catch passes from three different quarterbacks and playing in an offensive system with no identity or cohesion. The season wasn’t perfect, but it was undoubtedly a step in the right direction.
Yet nobody is talking about Kmet as somebody to watch.
Quite the contrary. Most experts have already declared the Bears have next to nobody on offense capable of helping Justin Fields this season. GM Ryan Poles did a poor job trying to help his young quarterback. All the while, they ignored a 1,000-yard rusher in David Montgomery, a 1,000-yard receiver in Darnell Mooney, and Kmet. One person that has high hopes for the young tight end is former defensive back, Matt Bowen. The ESPN analyst labeled him a big fantasy football sleeper this year.
“Kmet caught 60 of 91 targets last season. And we know the pass-catching traits are there to see the ball in Chicago’s new offensive system with quarterback Justin Fields entering his second pro season. It’s the anticipated red zone usage, however, that puts the third-year tight end in the mix for a potential breakout season. Kmet saw a total of just 12 red zone targets last year, with only six end zone targets. And he failed to log a single touchdown. But with tight end Jimmy Graham now out of the picture, there’s an open door for Kmet to see a boost in scoring opportunities–which would push him into the TE1 discussion.”
This goes back to the baffling offensive game plans Matt Nagy implemented last season. He had a 6’6 tight end with excellent strength and box-out skills, yet he only had him targeted six times in the end zone last season. One can only hope logic won’t escape new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy. His wide-zone offense is noted for utilizing tight ends a lot. That is one more reason this could be a big year for Kmet.
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Cole Kmet is in a perfect position to surprise people.
He’s entering a new offense designed to utilize his position better. He is only 23 years old going into his third season. So his football knowledge should be far more solidified after arriving in the NFL so raw from Notre Dame. Last but not least, he has a strong connection with Fields. His two best games last season came with #1 under center, catching a combined 12 passes for 156 yards against Pittsburgh and Minnesota.
That is what should have people excited more than anything. Cole Kmet is getting a full off-season to build his chemistry with Fields. His confidence should be peaking now that the intimidation factor of the NFL is dissipating. He knows he can play in this league. It is merely a matter of putting everything together.
Nobody should expect superstar numbers.
Kmet isn’t that kind of tight end. He is more the classic 500-600 yards per year guy who can be a scary red zone threat. That isn’t bad, especially if he continues to develop as a blocker. Players like that give defenses headaches. Opinions on him could shift significantly by the end of this year.
Yes he is a sleeper BUT the question is … will he keep sleeping ?
Kmet is going to be a real threat in Getsy’s scheme, few coaches seem to have that ingrained tilt to utilizing TEs the way Getsy does, think Robert T in GB the last 2 seasons and that is exactly what Getsy will do with Kmet. Get ready, because Kmet s one completely overlooked threat that will definitely surprise and challenge more than a few DCs this season. Think 800 yds and 8 tds as realistic goals.
I hope you’re right, but I don’t see it … and please, as much as I enjoy Matt Bowen’s take, Fantasy Football isn’t FOOTBALL!
For clarity, it would be interesting to see total Red Zone and End Zone targets by all QBs and who they were for? IE: what was his % of total targets v/s all TE? My feeling is Graham got the lions share.
I would love to see 700 yards and six TD from Kmet. I think this team is going to score a lot more TD’s. If the D can get some takeaways this year it will really help. And if V.Jones can get loose, look out!