The Chicago Bears don’t have many supporters from the national media going into this season. That isn’t a huge surprise. The team went 6-11 last year with one of the worst offenses in the league. They’ve switched coaching staff led by former Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus. Such changes haven’t given people confidence he’ll be able to fix the original problem with this roster. To say nothing of the lukewarm reception GM Ryan Poles‘ work got to upgrade the offense around Justin Fields.
As a result, the projections for their 2022 season have encountered plenty of doom and gloom. Seth Walder of ESPN was the first to make that clear. His Football Power Index (FPI) doesn’t predict Bears fans having much fun this year. He believes the team is going to be rough to watch. So much, in fact, that they’ll be in the running for the #1 overall pick. According to his recent article, he even has percentages on their likelihood of holding a top 10 pick when the dust settles. It’s pretty high.
2. Chicago Bears
Chance at No. 1 pick: 13.7%
Chance at top 10: 67.9%Why they are here: The Bears are like the Jets but with less talent surrounding their quarterback. And like the Jets’ Wilson, Justin Fields also needs to take a major step forward in his second season after a disappointing rookie campaign. Additionally, Chicago has a new coaching staff, which adds a bit more uncertainty to its forecast. But in this case, that’s a good thing. — Walder
The two wild cards for Walder are Fields and the new coaching staff.
If the young quarterback takes a step forward and Eberflus’ crew turns out to be more competent than the previous one, there is a chance the Bears might overachieve. They won’t be a playoff team, but they’ll push to be somewhere close to where they were last season. That record resulted in the 7th overall pick, which the New York Giants held via the Fields trade from the year prior.
One of the things driving this newfound pessimism is the mass exodus of 2018 stars. Allen Robinson, Akiem Hicks, and Khalil Mack are all gone. Losing them is unfortunate, but people shouldn’t be acting like they carried the Bears last year. Robinson only had 410 yards receiving. Mack missed ten games because of a foot injury. Hicks has struggled to stay healthy for years now. They’re still good players, but not at their commanding prices.
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Chicago Bears don’t have to worry about high expectations.
History shows this team always seems to do better when everybody doubts them. Look at their big turnarounds in 2001 and 2005. Experts had them as one of the worst teams in the league both times, and they made the playoffs both times. The same is possible for this version of the Bears. Likely? No. Possible though. Fields taking a step forward is critical. The team will need better-than-expected performances from the wide receivers and offensive line.
Then it comes down to whether Eberflus can keep the defense respectable despite key losses like Mack and Hicks. They still have studs like Robert Quinn, Roquan Smith, and Jaylon Johnson. If new arrivals like Kyler Gordon and Jaquan Brisker live up to their early hype, this team can surprise people thanks to a watered-down NFC and an easy overall schedule.
If they end up with a top 10 pick, the path forward seems obvious.
Poles will likely focus his attention on upgrading the offense around Fields. That is unless the QB struggles a lot this season. That might force the team to consider drafting a new quarterback to replace him. Unlikely, but something to monitor as the season unfolds.
