ESPN turned heads this past month when their Football Power Index projected the Chicago Bears are the current favorites to land the #1 overall pick in the 2023 draft. Much of the pessimism stems from their gutting of the roster over the previous months, with notable veterans like Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks, and Allen Robinson heading through the exit door. Combine that with uncertainty on offense surrounding Justin Fields and people aren’t buying the idea this team can even be mediocre in 2022.
It turns out ESPN isn’t the only one buying the idea the Bears will be that bad. Conor Orr of Sports Illustrated isn’t high on them, either. He’s slammed the team for their “failure” to support Justin Fields, even calling on the QB to force a trade out of town. So it wasn’t a shock to see him predict Chicago as one of four teams that will battle it out for the top pick between September and January.
“The Panthers, Texans, Seahawks, and Bears will be the teams in contention for the No. 1 pick.
For these fan bases, all is not lost. There should be a somewhat robust class of quarterbacks to debate over this year. In Seattle, Houston and Chicago, this may be a pleasant side effect of their roster-building strategy.”
The choices aren’t too shocking.
Carolina was bad last year and did little to fix their primary issue at quarterback. They’re still stuck with Sam Darnold. Houston changed its coaching staff this offseason to Lovie Smith. He figures to help the Texans’ defense, but it isn’t clear what that will do to develop quarterback Davis Mills. As for Seattle, they lost their two pillars, Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner, in the same offseason. They’re also stuck in a loaded division.
Are the Bears as bad as those three teams? Houston has a case for being better than people expect this season if Mills improves on his surprisingly decent rookie year. Seattle and Carolina absolutely deserve their spots in contention. Darnold and Drew Lock aren’t taking them anywhere. Fields will have to show he’s better than them at least. Not a difficult hurdle to clear.
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Chicago Bears have a favorable schedule too.
Projections have them holding the second-easiest slate of games in the NFL this season. They’re not exactly in a stacked division, either. Green Bay lost Davante Adams and Za’Darius Smith this off-season. Minnesota overhauled its power structure, and doesn’t look any better on paper than they were last season. As for Detroit, they seem better after a solid past few months but have a long way to go before they’re relevant.
Nobody is saying the Chicago Bears will be good this year. That is unlikely. Their roster needs a lot more work. Still, it takes a lot to be really bad in this league too. It doesn’t feel like this team is there. They have a talented young quarterback in Fields with at least one good receiver in Darnell Mooney. David Montgomery also headlines a capable backfield. The defense has an excellent pass rusher in Robert Quinn with an emerging star in Roquan Smith at linebacker. They also added two talented rookies in Kyler Gordon and Jaquan Brisker.
So many things would have to go wrong for them to be that bad.
The #1 pick has been held by teams that finish with one or two wins at most over the past few seasons. Chicago hasn’t had such a win total since way back in 1969. Compare that team to this one and it’s not even close. Maybe Orr is right, but not likely.
